Date: November 15, 2004
Vol. VIII, No. 22

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: Is the Industry Glass Half Empty?

 Before you read this issue, a warning: I tend to worry. My wife will tell you I usually see the glass as half empty. I am telling you this, now, because I'm worried about the industry and have written two pieces on "issues" I see facing it. That's a nice way of saying, "I see trouble ahead."

What troubles me is word of shakeups at some major industry companies and the absence of good news about some major product categories – usually signs of flat or declining sales. Then there are the signs that history is repeating itself: scrapbooking may be following the same path as decoupage, macrame, counted cross stitch, and fabric painting.

But remember, during the 25+ years I've been in the industry, I've written an "Uh-oh, the glass is half empty" column about five times. Each time I turned out to be correct, more or less. But each time the industry adapted, and after a period of relative stagnation, began to grow again. There may be storms ahead, but the sky is not falling.

Business-Wise. An industry veteran tries to shop in nearby Michaels and Jo-Ann's stores. How was the experience? It's entitled "A Customer's Nightmare."

Scene & Heard. Trend expert Ellie Joos reports on the highlights of Quilt Market.

Legal Q. & A. An industry veteran writes about the growing problem of the scrapbook industry ignoring copyright laws.

Memory, Paper & Stamps. Scrapbooking is in trouble; some suggestions for improving the situation for vendors and retailers from a savvy independent.

Tech Topics. The Internet has changed the way scrapbook magazines and vendors find and use designers.

Note. If you surf to a column and it's an "old" column, click the "Refresh" or "Reload" button on your browser.

There will be five memory-related trade shows next year – the CHA Winter and Summer shows, MemoryTrends, the new Scrapbook Biz show and the Photo Marketing Assn. Int. show (see below). Which will you attend or exhibit at? Are they at the right time of year? To vote, click HERE or on Industry Polls in the right-hand column.

The results of our poll are remarkable; vendors and retailers have almost identical plans for their 2005 marketing and advertising budgets. For vendors, 30% will spend the same amount as they did this year, while an equal percentage will increase their budget as decrease it. The same is true for retailers; 25% will maintain the status quo while an equal number will increase their budgets as decrease them.

The Professional Scrapbook Retailers Organization (PSRO) has become a "section association" of the Photo Marketing Assn. Int. (PMA). The PMA convention/trade show in Orlando will offer education and business resources dedicated to scrapbook retailers. The show is Feb. 20-23, five days after the CHA Winter Show ends in Atlanta. PMA says the show usually attracts more than 700 exhibitors and 25,000 - 30,000 attendees

PMA hired Jeanne Wines-Reed, publisher of Scrapbook Retailer and author of Scrapbooking for Dummies, as director of the new association. "We are teaming with PMA for many reasons," says Wines-Reed. "First, because of their proven expertise in all facets of imaging; secondly, because PMA is an established association with a sterling record in serving retailers for over 80 years; and, ultimately, because of the vast possibilities for synergy that I see in our missions." For more show info, visit www.pmai.org.

Here's a sign of how strong a role cultural issues played in the presidential election. Wal-Mart Sr. VP/Treasurer Jay Fitzsimmons told a Lehman Brothers investment conference that the discounter's core shoppers are affected by gas prices, job worries, health care costs, and their stagnant incomes, the Arkansas Democrat Gazette reported. The economy is improving, but "they haven’t seen the improvement," Fitzsimmons said of the poorest 33% of the shopping population. "If you break out your statistics, you find they’re in the hole" financially. Nationwide Wal-Mart polls of its customers have revealed economic anxieties on the rise since April.

Those issues should have been Senator Kerry's. Yet a CNN poll indicated Wal-Mart customers voted for President Bush by a wide margin. Either they found Senator Kerry uninspiring or their votes were determined by non-economic issues.

Wichelt Imports, a leading distributor of cross stitch and needlework products for 35 years, acquired Gay Bowles Sales, a Janesville, WI-based distributor and manufacturer of Mill Hill Beads, Mill Hill Treasures, and Mill Hill Kits. Wichelt has begun distributing all Mill Hill products and will feature its entire line at the 2005 CHA, TNNA, and INRG trade shows.

"By adding the Mill Hill Beads, Treasures, and Kits to the base of products already found in the Wichelt Imports Collection, we can now offer the needlework industry an exciting full-line assortment of products," said Wichelt President/CEO Joyce Wichelt. "We will continue to design and manufacture the upscale whimsical designs that Mill Hill customers expect, while adding new options for the stitcher."

Gay Bowles Sales was established in 1981 and introduced Mill Hill products in 1986. Wichelt Imports is a family-owned business located in Stoddard, WI. Founded in 1970, the company distributes cross-stitch products around the world, including many top European and American needlework companies. For more info, visit www.wichelt.com.

Wal-Mart's new one-hour digital photo service integrates Wal-Mart and Sam's Club's online and in-store photo capabilities. The service allows customers to upload digital photos at www.walmart.com or www.samsclub.com, edit, share, and order images online, then pick up the prints within an hour at a local Wal-Mart or Sam's Club that has a one-hour photo center. "We believe it will revolutionize the way our customers process digital photo prints," VP Dave Rogers told Retail Merchandiser. The price for a 4"x6" print remains the same – 24 cents at Wal-Mart stores and 18 cents at Sam's Clubs.

Wal-Mart and Sam's Club are also offering customers free software, "My Wal-Mart Digital Photo Center at Home," which equips home computers with similar functions as the Photo Kiosks inside Wal-Mart and Sam's Club locations today.

Michaels. Same-store sales grew 5% and overall sales rose 9% to $280.4 million. Traffic was up 3% but the average ticket decreased 1%. Higher custom frame deliveries increased same-store sales by 3%, primarily due to changes in the timing of custom frame promos. The best performing departments were Needlework/Yarn, General Crafts, Wedding/Ribbon, and Impulse, and the best performing zones were the Pacific, Southeast, and Central.

A pleased CEO Michael Rouleau cited better customer traffic and sales of regular-priced merchandise despite a slightly less aggressive promotional program, and lower inventory levels of clearance merchandise.

Jo-Ann's. Same-store sales slipped 0.3% while overall sales rose 0.6% to $160.5 million.

Wal-Mart. Same-store sales rose 2.4%. Officials said results were hurt by less than 1% because Halloween fell outside the sales period, which ended Oct. 29. Overall sales rose almost $2 billion to $21.04 billion.

Hancock. Had its first positive month in recent months. Same-store sales rose 2.3% and overall sales rose 1.3% to $38.9 million.

Others. Nordstrom, +11.5% ... Target, +6.0% ... CVS, +5.2% ... Federated, +4.0% ... Dollar General, +3.0% ... J.C. Penney, + 2.1% ... Duckwall-ALCO, +1.3% ... ... Family Dollar, +0.9% ... Dollar Tree, +0.7% ... Big Lots, flat ... Pier 1, -5.9% ... Bombay, -13.0%.

1. Health of the independent scrapbook retailer (see below).

2. The shaky general economy. While the overall economy is growing, the high price of oil, which shows no signs of returning to pre-war levels, is taking more disposable income. This may affect the Northeast in particular this winter because of the region's dependence on heating oil. Consumer confidence has been slipping and our customers face Christmas without the tax refunds they had in hand a year ago. New jobs are being created, but they pay less than lost manufacturing jobs. The federal deficit is ballooning, which should hamper the government's efforts to bolster the economy.

3. The Orient. A recent report in the Wall Street Journal detailed areas in China where there is a shortage of employees for the booming economy. That is forcing Chinese manufacturers to increase wages and/or improve working conditions. Add to that the higher price of oil and some raw materials and sure enough, now we're hearing about some price increases on import items. For example, the Labor Department reported that the price of imports rose 1.5% in October; that's double the increase analysts had forecast, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, some west coast ports and the rail lines and trucks that support them are already jammed beyond capacity. More imports will mean delivery dates will be more unreliable. The problem should ease after Christmas goods have been delivered, but the growing demand for low-priced imports means an ongoing infrastructure problem.

4. Wal-Mart. If the discounter uses crafts as loss leaders. It can make up the difference when consumers, drawn to Wal-Mart by the toy prices, also buy other, higher-margin items. That strategy pushed KB Toys and FAO Schwarz into bankruptcy and Toys R Us to consider getting out of the toy business.

Wal-Mart is not planning that strategy with crafts/sewing soon; a recent Forbes.com article, Wal-Mart's Next Victims, claims the next five categories the discounter is targeting are consumer electronics, banking, pharmacy, gasoline, and fashion. But Wal-Mart execs have said the company's goal is a 30% market share in every category, so eventually ....

5. Some of our stores are turning into memory/bead/yarn shops; that makes sense today but may be harmful in the long run. Most categories rise and fall and rise again, but if a retailer eliminates a category completely, how does that category ever stage a comeback?

6. Many traditional vendors seem to be focusing their creative energies into scrapbooking, which already has too many vendors. Meanwhile their original categories are languishing.

(Note: Agree with the above? Disagree? Send your thoughts (on or off the record) to mike@clnonline.com and we'll share them in our next issue.)

1. Yarn. Entice consumers to crochet and move knitters beyond scarves to more challenging projects (that use more yarn). Vendors need to walk a fine line: expand to meet the demand, but not become over-extended if demand cools.

2. Scrapbooking. Too many products, vendors, retailers, trade magazines, consumer shows, and trade shows. Unless we have a massive effort to attract new scrappers, we're may divide the pie into pieces too small for businesses of all types to make a profit.

3. Painting. When 85% of the newly certified decorative painters are from overseas, what does that say about the category's ability to attract new U.S. painters? The soon-to-be-named new exec director of the Society of Decorative Painters needs to turn the organization outward, toward new consumers.

4. Needlework. Not that long ago millions of consumers were avid cross-stitchers. That was about the time the yarn companies formed the Craft Yarn Council of America and transformed knitting from its dormant state into the industry's hottest category ... Let's hope TNNA and INRG will continue their efforts to create a strong combined show next June.

1. If many of the scrapbook independents fall by the wayside, they will take numerous small vendors with them.

2. The decline in the number of shops and vendors would drastically reduce the size of the industry's trade shows (trade magazines, too). Since trade associations use the profits from the show to fund a variety of programs and services, the smaller the shows, the fewer the services for all.

3. Remaining retailers would absorb most, but not all of the sales of the independents. Some business would be lost forever. Chains can't provide the wealth of products that the hardcore scrappers want.

4. Scrapping is the "quilting bee of the 21st century"; many scrapbookers look to their local independent for a place to scrap with others. If the social element is gone, scrapbook enthusiasts might not remain so enthusiastic.

5. Another hot trend would come along, but not immediately. In the interim, industry sales would plateau, if not slip, and that would discourage potential investors and make banks hesitant to make loans to industry businesses.

Conclusion: We all have a stake in the success of the scrapbook independents. Trade groups should concentrate on offering business education workshops. Manufacturers should do what they can to help independents remain profitable. Vendors should look for ways to make their businesses more efficient in other ways so they can afford to help independents by lowering minimums, packaging in smaller amounts, etc.

New officers for The National NeedleArts Assn. are President Stacy Charles (Tahki Stacy Charles) and VP Marilyn Murphy (Interweave Press). Jim Bryson (Bryson Distributing) continues as Secretary/Treasurer.

Other Board members: Judi Alweil (Judi & Co.); Kenneth Bridgewater (Westminster Fibers/Coats & Clark); Amy Bunger (Keeping Me in Stitches); John Caldera (Just Nan); Nan Hempel (Nan Hempel Designs); Past President Carol Gantz (Associated Talents); and DeElda Wittmack (DeElda).

Regional Associate Directors: Kathy Morrow (The Yarn Studio), Southwest; Linda Carter (Yarn Garden), West Coast; Ellen Nation (The Needlepoint Garden), Southeast; Cindy Mathews (Wellesley Needlepoint Collection), Northeast; and Karen Rumpza (Needlework Unlimited), Midwest.

Committee chairs: Terry Christopher (2 The Point/Ty-Di Threads), Needlepoint Group; Doreen Connors (Vogue Knitting/SOHO Publishing), Yarn Group; and Tink Boord-Dill (Peg & Tink Ink), Interim Chair, Counted Thread/Embroidery Group.

For information on TNNA, call 740-455-6773, email tnna.info@offinger.com, or visit www.tnna.org.

FORTUNE SMILES ON MICHAELS

The 11/3 edition of Fortune quotes various stock market analysts who expect Michaels to post very strong earnings in the future, thanks in part to the new "inventory-management system that has streamlined purchasing and cut by 80% the labor needed to replenish shelves."

As is often the case with the national media, the article was slightly condescending in tone (calling Michaels' eight Recollections stores "joints") and in some ways inaccurate. ("Look for Michaels to add nearly a thousand stores between now and 2009.") Michaels may add hundreds of stores of some type, but it's doubtful it will open 1,000 Michaels stores.

(Note: Our previous issue reported on Wal-Mart's expanded scrapbook section and photo kiosks. We also included reader emails complaining about another scrapbook trade show and the extensive giveaways endemic in scrapbooking. We were besieged with responses; excerpts of some of them are below. All published responses are edited for length and clarity.)

1. Wal-Mart's craft strategies: "I was just in Wal-Mart and saw three things mentioned in your recent newsletter. Wal-Mart has already expanded its scrapping section; what used to be about half of one aisle is now 1.5 aisles. I saw a lady diligently selecting and cropping photos at the Kodak kiosk. I took a peek in her basket and she had already been to that expanded scrapbooking section; she had paper and stickers. [What you wrote] isn’t going to happen – it’s happening NOW!" Annette Pfau, Stamp on This, http://stamponthis.com

2. The Scrapbook Biz trade show: "I am a small vendor. Three shows is just too much. The same group of buyers are just spread out between the CHA summer and MemoryTrends. We don't need another show to cut that pie up anymore. We simply can't afford the time or money it takes to reach a smaller and smaller audience. If the big boys are complaining about another show, then you know the small companies and the retailers don't want it, either.

"We have already decided not to attend CHA summer and just go to CHA winter and MemoryTrends. Now I wish that MemoryTrends would move to late summer so we can have a true six months between shows. That would be ideal. Most other small new vendors I know are also choosing just two shows. We're looking for a shakeout to see which shows (CHA summer or MT) are better." – Name Withheld

3. Scrapbook giveaways: "The scrapbooking industry has really shot itself in the foot with these ridiculous practices. All this giveaway stuff does is undervalue everything that is for sale, hurting vendors and retailers alike. This gluttony for free product overshadows the real value of classes. The sad thing is that most of the time these products just end up in a box or are given away because these same people are very picky and want the latest and greatest, and a lot of the companies donate older, overstocked, or discontinued products.

"Funny, consumers who take these classes from a manufacturer think that since they are paying $15-20 for the class, they better be getting at least that much in supplies back. Like the vendor sees any of that money!. HA!

"Small vendors can't compete with companies who give everything away in their classes. We struggle to provide the supplies for the project and pay sponsoring fees just to be able to provide a class. Often times you also have travel expenses for a teacher.

"Also, we just can't also include tons of freebies. We do give out door prizes, but that doesn't seem like enough for these people. As a result, we don't teach or sponsor classes very often. The lack of appreciation for what is being taught is the big decision factor here. Getting your class trashed because you didn't give out tons of free product isn't fun." – Name Withheld

4. Scrapbook giveaways. "Walnut Hollow believes strongly in education and promoting products, as well as giving product away, through classes. At different events, I have even had class attendees switch to our classes because they saw what we were giving away to participants. They clap when you give them something – and clap even louder when you give them more!

"Class and event organizers are just as bad. Some organizers strongly suggest the more prizes or giveaways the better. Money isn't enough – organizers want money and product to give away (over and above classroom product). It's amazing that they just expect it.

"We work together with many other manufacturers to bring education to the industry. It is costly for all of us. 'Crafters' always seem to appreciate what they receive in class. 'Scrappers' always expect to receive. Interesting ...." Chris Wallace, Marketing Communications Director, Walnut Hollow Farm

5. MemoryTrends: "The vendor who emailed that MemoryTrends is exclusively for scrapbooking – this isn't the case. MemoryTrends is scrapbooking, rubber stamping, and the paper arts. I've taught classes at MemoryTrends for five years and I do appreciate scrapbookers. (I am a scrapbooker.) But I get frustrated that our industry seems to overlook crafters who enjoy rubber stamping, collage, altered art, paper folding, paper making, paper casting, cardmaking, and paper home dec designs and projects. It's the PAPER as well as the memories." – Maria Nerius, Nerius House & Co.

Some toy vendors have made what must have been a very tough decision. They are giving Toys R Us' exclusive deals and advertising support this season because, as one toy exec told The Wall Street Journal, "Toys R Us is the industry's lifeblood. As Toys R Us goes, so do we."

I wonder if those toy vendors will get other new products in Wal-Mart?

FALSE RUMORS. It is NOT true that 7 Gypsies was being absorbed by Autumn Leaves. 7 Gypsies remains a fully independent company; it is simply no longer using Autumn Leaves for distribution ... Martin/F. Weber is NOT sold; in fact, it's not even up for sale. Apparently the false rumor started when the company changed some sales reps ... The Treasure Island chain has NOT changed owners ... Wal-Mart is NOT dropping painting.

TV. Tomorrow the PBS series Frontline will broadcast, "Is Wal-Mart Good for America?" "... the one-hour Frontline focuses specifically on the process by which Wal-Mart strong-arms manufacturers into moving production to China so that the retail giant can keep its prices low, often at the expense of American jobs," wrote the New York Post ... CNBC will re-broadcast its special, " The Age of Wal-Mart: Inside America's Most Powerful Company" tonight at 10pm (EST) and Thursday at 9am and noon.

RAG SHOPS. Jeff Gerstel has resigned as President of Rag Shops. Tom Souza is CEO and Susan Boykas is CFO. Souza had been President/CEO of Mirage Stores and before that, President/COO of Claire’s Accessories. They plan to open new stores, create a new corporate identity design, improve store layouts and customer service, update the merchandise mix, renew its focus on everyday value, and enhance its marketing, customer outreach, and in-store promos.

RETAIL. Add Kohl's to the list of non-industry retailers now carrying some scrapbook supplies. Visit http://twopeasinabucket.com/mb.asp?cmd=display&thread_id=882712.

ACQUISITIONS. Autumn Leaves bought Foofala ... Pumpkin Masters has become a division of Rauch Industries, a manufacturer/distributor of glass Christmas ornaments.

PAINTING. The Society of Decorative Painters is interviewing three finalists for the job of executive director ... Registration is now available for the SDP International Conference May 23-28 in Tampa. There will be 150+ classes with new classes for business owners including such topics as licensing your artwork, marketing strategies, and negotiating publishing and tv contracts. For info, visit www.decorativepainters.org or call 316-269-9300 ext. 101.

MERGER. The Int. Model Hobby Manufacturers Assn., the Model Railroad Industry Assn., and the Radio Control Hobby Trade Assn. are talking about merging, Playthings reported. Helping lead the effort is Pat Koziol, former exec director of HIA (now CHA) and the current exec director of RCHTA. Model, railroad, and radio-control businesses founded HIA more than 60 years ago and broke off when craft-related companies became the large majority.

STOCK. Michaels repurchased an additional 1,043,500 shares of the company's common stock in October at an average price of $27.55 per share.

NEEDLEWORK. The National NeedleArts Assn.'s trade show in Long Beach (Jan. 22-24) is breaking records again: The number of exhibitors is up 6% to 284 and booths are up 11% to 697 booths. TNNA expects larger attendance, too; the 2004 winter show attracted 838 stores, 42% more than the 2003 event. The show also offers 90+ technique classes and business seminars. For info, call 740-455-6773, email tnna.info@offinger.com, or visit www.tnna.org.

Co-owners Doris Lemert and Melinda Haines met in 1999 when their then three-year-old daughters were in the same Kindermusik class. The two women discovered they had much in common, including professional marketing careers prior to becoming stay-at-home moms, and a shared passion for paper crafting. The pair jokingly talked about starting a business, if they could come up with a good idea.

And they did: large-scale clear destination-specific stickers, an innovation to the industry. After launching their line at a consumer show in October 2000, they had enough positive feedback to go national. With one roll of Florida stickers and designs for all 50 states, State of Mine Stickers were introduced at the ACCI [now the CHA Summer] show in 2001. With excellent response to their product designs, the team went to the bank and was in business.

In April 2002, the company moved out of Doris’ basement and Melinda’s home office into their first office/warehouse space. After two weeks getting organized, disaster struck. A pickup truck going 60 miles per hour crashed into the company’s warehouse. During the course of the next two months, Destination Scrapbook Designs had to move three times, but managed to keep the business going and growing. In fact, company sales have grown 35% - 50% annually.

The company continues to be an industry innovator with its product lines and fixtures, coming out ahead of the pack with travel, military, and sports/extra-curricular activity stickers. The lines include:

State of Mine Stickers – 99 destination-specific clear sticker sheets for the U.S., Canada, U.S. military, and international travel destinations.

Jock Talk and Geek Speak Stickers – 30 clear sticker sheet designs featuring the terminology of sports and extra-curricular school activities.

Flip Flop Fasteners - virtually invisible self-adhesive poly fasteners for paper crafting. This new product, introduced at 2004 Memory Trends, allows hinged or flipped components to be added to cards or scrapbook pages without adding weight or bulk. They allow multiple photos to be added to a page with ease.

Custom-designed swinging fixtures that work in grid, slat, or pegboard, in 12- and 30- prong designs. The racks accommodate a large amount of product in a small amount of space.

Destination Scrapbook Designs advertises regularly in national scrapbook publications with humorous ads featuring their "Geeky Guy." Orders generally are shipped the same day they are received, and include project sheets for the company’s product lines. All of the company’s products are proudly manufactured in the U.S.

Key Execs: Co-Owners Melinda Haines and Doris Lemert ... National Sales Director MaryJean Lepsch.

Rolodex: Destination Scrapbook Designs, PO Box 15027, Fort Wayne, IN 46885. Call (toll-free) 866-806-7826; fax 260-482-1638; email: doris.lemert@destinationstickers.com; or visit www.destinationstickers.com.

Note: CLN will profile one company per issue, which will remain online for at least a year. A Profile is a perfect way for a new company to let itself be known to the industry, or for an established company to enhance its reputation by showing the industry its history, diversity of products, personnel, etc. For more information on how your company can be profiled, call Mike Hartnett at 309-925-5593 or email mike@clnonline.com.

To see the latest openings, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

 THE CLN RETAIL INDEX

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 28.86 ... Change**: +3.14
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 10.89 ... Change**: +0.62
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 25.50 ... Change**: +0.84
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 30.59 ... Change**: +1.49
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 56.85 ... Change**: +2.93
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 162.46 ... Change**: +.6.3%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,539.01 ... Change**: +5.1%

 NOW THAT THE ELECTION IS OVER...

Note: The following is an excerpt of an article by David Batstone that appeared in Sojourners:

"Truth is, the pressing challenges facing the U.S. and the globe sorely call out for cooperation. Speaking with my business hat on, I am terribly concerned about the precarious heights to which the federal deficit has grown. Its resolution goes beyond left-right rhetoric, as does a needed re-structuring of Social Security. Facilitating an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, enabling a transition to sovereignty in Iraq, stemming the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and reversing the greenhouse effect all cry out for reasoned, bipartisan initiatives as well. And it is likely that the next president will select up to three, or maybe even four, new Supreme Court justices. If the Supreme Court is to maintain the respect of the entire nation, the judges must be chosen on the basis of their proven discernment and experience, not their judicial rating from the Christian Coalition or the ACLU."

1. For more information on how your business can be the subject of a "Business Profile" call Mike Hartnett at 309-925-5593 or email mike@clnonline.com.

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5. Creative Leisure News is published the first and third Mondays of each month. Because November has five Mondays, your next issue will be Monday, December 6. HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

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