Date: December 6, 2004
Vol. VIII, No. 23

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: Columns To Make You Think

Years ago I was asked to give a seminar at a wholesaler open house for retailers. When I arrived the wholesaler said, "There's been a slight change in plans. Instead of talking for 45 minutes, could you talk for four hours?" I swallowed hard and said I'd try.

I talked for 45 minutes, ran out of material, and in desperation starting asking the retailers questions. Their answers inspired other comments from the audience. The session lasted four hours and evolved into spirited discussions in which the retailers, in effect, taught each other.

When it was over, many of them told me how much they'd learned and how smart I was. Ha! I'd hardly said a word the last three hours.

I mention this story because this issue has some particularly insightful, thought-provoking columns – and I didn't write any of them. You should read them all, whether you're a vendor, retailer, designer, etc. I don't agree with everything in the columns and you may not either, but that's OK; they'll make you think.

Business-Wise. The last issue of CLN contained two "the glass is half empty" analyses of the state of our industry. Read thought-provoking responses from a variety of industry pros.

Designing Perspectives. Thoughts on demos and classes in chain stores – from a teacher at Michaels.

Note. If you surf to a column and it's an "old" column. Click on your "Refresh" or "Reload" button on your browser.

Is the holiday selling season meeting your expectations? A pleasant surprise? Disappointing? To vote and see how the rest of the industry voted, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

CLN readers were adamant about the 2005 craft and memory shows they will – and will not – attend next year. The CHA winter show (Atlanta, Feb.) was the most popular with 93% of the voters planning to attend or exhibit. MemoryTrends (Las Vegas, Oct.) was next at 75%, followed by the CHA summer show (Chicago, July) with 70%. Following way behind are the Scrapbook Biz (Columbus, Apr.) show with 11% and the Photo Marketing Assn. (Orlando, Feb.) show with 4%.

Regarding the timing of the three "winning" shows, a majority of buyers and exhibitors thought they were scheduled "about the right time of year."

In general. sales were strong for retailers catering to higher-end consumers; otherwise, retailers paid the price for high gasoline costs cutting into customers' disposable income.

Wal-Mart announced November same-store sales grew only 0.7%, due to disappointing sales the day after Thanksgiving. Just two weeks ago, Wal-Mart estimated the growth would be 2-4%. Richard D. Hastings, CCE, a retail analyst for Bernard Sands LLC, told Retail Merchandiser the poor showing was due to the discounter putting a greater emphasis on profits (margins) than market share (sales). Then last week the discounter announced it would cut prices again and launched a rare newspaper ad blitz.

America's Research Group surveyed 1,000 shoppers every night over the Thanksgiving weekend and concluded shopping levels overall on Friday were flat or down as much as 5%, the Financial Times reported. Moreover, many of those who did shop that Friday went for the early-bird specials, and then apparently went home (see article below).

November sales for craft chains seemed to follow the same pattern as their third-quarter reports (see article below). Jo-Ann's was the best performer with same-store sales up 2.7% and overall sales rising 6.1% to $190.9 million. At the other end of the spectrum was Hancock, whose same-store sales fell 5.7% and overall sales declined 5.5%.

Michaels' same-store sales fell 3% while overall sales rose 2% to $382.6 million. Execs cited customer traffic, down 2%, and a flat average ticket. The timing of custom frame deliveries reduced same-store sales by 1%, but the stronger Canadian dollar contributed approximately 0.5% to the average ticket. The best performing departments were Yarn, Impulse, Fall Seasonal, and Ribbon; the top regions were the Pacific, Northern, and Central.

Others: Costco, +6.0% ... Family Dollar, +5.2% ... Dollar General, +3.4% ... Target, +3.2% ... Best Buy, +3.0% ... Sears, +2.8% ... BJ's Wholesale Club, +1.8% ... Kohl's, flat ... Duckwall-ALCO, -1.3% (but cited fabric as one of its better selling categories) ... ShopKo, -4.8% ... Big Lots, -6.1%.

Meanwhile, there has been a huge surge in Internet buying. ConScore Networks, an Internet research company, said sales on Thanksgiving day shot up 100% to $133 million and rose 41% the day after Thanksgiving to $250 million. Visa reported that Black Friday Internet sales rose 28.1%.

The popularity of gift cards is increasing, too. A new survey by the National Retail Foundation showed 74.3% of consumers will buy a gift card this season, up from 69.9% last year, Reuters reported. (Remember, gift cards can skew traditional retail sales because their sale is not credited until they are cashed in, often in January rather than November or December.)

"We think it is too soon to define the holiday season as a success or a disappointment," Ellen Tolley, a spokeswoman at the National Retail Foundation told the Associated Press. "The holiday season is going to be decided at the last minute, the week before and the week after Christmas" when shoppers do much of their buying."

A few years ago a handful of retailers opened early the day after Thanksgiving and offered early-bird specials. That strategy was hugely successful and, of course, inspired imitators. Now rising before dawn to shop at big-box retailers seems to have become a U.S institution – and may have backfired on storeowners. A strong independent retailer told CLN:

"One large competitor had over 300 people enter their store between 6 and 7 a.m. on Friday and at 8:15 a.m. they had 9 people in the store. The manager told me he did almost $30K in those two hours at about a 10% margin – and only did another 9K the entire rest of the day. Another manager told me they did 80K on Friday but only 30K on Saturday and 16K on Sunday."

Media. There have been recent articles about knitting in the New York Times; Detroit Free Press; Knight Ridder syndicate; The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, IA); Courier-Journal (Louisville); Birmingham (AL) News; Dance Spirit and Teen magazines; and Washington Post – and in her syndicated column, Liz Smith recently profiled Catherine Zeta-Jones, who is keeping busy on the set of the Zorro sequel knitting Christmas presents ... The Dec. InStyle reports that Hollywood men are "casting their purls," and cited David Arquette, Antonio Banderas, and Russell Crowe .... Last week Howard Stern talked the new popularity of knitting on his national radio show. Howard Stern!

Online. Crate & Barrel's website now includes crochet kits.

Calendar. Visit www.craftyarncouncil.com to download Dog Days 2005 Calendar with photos from Doggie Couture fashion show at the NY Knit-Out & Crochet 2004 in October. Visitors can link to each month and download the calendar page and project instructions.

Quotation: "Yarn is so big it is taking huge chunks of dollars from other areas of the stores. We did almost 16% of our [Thanksgiving] weekend sales in yarn and related accessories and the category is averaging nearly 14% of the total stores sales over the past three months – with no signs of slowing down." – Name Withheld (Major independent craft retailer)

MICHAELS. Net income for the quarter ended Oct. 30 rose 11% to $42.5 million ($0.31/share). Sales for the quarter increased 6% to $799.9 million and same-store sales grew 1%. Customer traffic was up 2% but the average ticket decreased 1%. Top departments were Needlework/Yarn, Impulse, Books, and Kids Crafts; the best regions were the Pacific, Central, and mid-Atlantic.

In a conference call with analysts, officials cited hurricanes, reductions in the ad program, and clearance sales with less merchandise; for example, changes in the Veterans Day promo hurt sales but improved gross margins.

While the third-quarter earnings met analysts' expectations, Wall Street was not happy. The day after the earnings report and conference call, the stock fell 7+% when Wachovia downgraded the stock to Underperform from Market Perform and BB&T Capital Markets slashed it to Hold from Buy – but analysts at Wedbush Morgan maintained their Buy rating.

Michaels' cash balance at the end of the third quarter was $272.4 million, up $166.9 million from a year ago, and average inventory/Michaels store decreased 8% to $1.213 million.

Execs tempered their expectations for the fourth quarter: same-store sales up 4%-6% in Dec. and up 3% - 5% in Jan. Including November, that averages out to a 2% - 3% increase for the quarter. Earnings will be at the low-end of its previous guidance of $0.74 - $0.76 for the fourth quarter and $1.44 - $1.46 for fiscal 2004.

For fiscal 2005 execs expect diluted earnings/share to increase at least 15%, same-store sales to rise 3% - 4%, total sales to increase 7% - 9%, and operating margins to grow 60 - 80 basis points.

The current store count is 849 Michaels stores, 164 Aaron Brothers stores, eight Recollections stores, and three Star Wholesale operations.

JO-ANN'S. Net income for the third quarter ended Oct. 30 was down 39.2% to $7.3 million ($0.32/diluted share) – in line with the company's predictions and analysts' expectations. Net sales increased 0.2% to $448.3 million, while same-store net sales dipped 0.9%. Average ticket increased 4%, but customer traffic was down.

A disappointed Chair/CEO Alan Rosskamm said, "As expected, results were negatively impacted by a 60th anniversary promotion in August of 2003 that was not repeated this year, and was further exacerbated by soft sales trends in September and October."

Execs are sticking to their full-year earnings guidance of $2.05 - $2.15, based on fourth-quarter earnings of $1.30 - $1.40, a same-store sales increase of 3.0% - 4.0%, better gross margins, and better sell-through of Christmas merchandise.

HANCOCK. Net earnings for the third quarter ended Oct. 31 were $1.0 million ($0.05/diluted share), down from $4.2 million ($0.23) a year ago. Sales fell 2.5% to $109.9 million, same-store sales declined 2.6%, traffic was down slightly, and the average sale fell 2%.

The current store count is 433.

Paper Adventures was sold to ANW/Crestwood Inc., owner of The Paper Company. The purchase was announced today by Mark Caliguire, president of ANW/Crestwood. "We are pleased to be expanding our product base through the acquisition of Paper Adventures. There is great synergy with this brand and that of The Paper Company," Caliguire said. "By combining an extensive collection of basic paper crafting products and decorative paper, with the Paper Adventures' design-driven collections, we will be able to offer the retailer an unusual buying experience. In this time of vendor consolidation, we plan to make it easy for retailers to have their needs met for basic and fashion product."

Katey Franceschini, ANW/Crestwood's VP of product development and marketing, will oversee Paper Adventures' product introductions and art direction. After Jan. 1, all Paper Adventures' order fulfillment and customer service will be out of the ANW/Crestwood's headquarters in Lincoln Park, NJ. Paper Adventures' toll-free number will remain the same: 800-727-0699.

ANW/Crestwood began in the early 1900's as the first North American business to import exotic Asian and European papers to the U.S. Today it markets to retailers across the U.S. and abroad, selling cards and envelopes, imprintable stationery products, decorative paper, and cardstock. For more info or a current product catalog, call 800-525-3196.

Paper Adventures is a division of Leader Paper Products, a fourth-generation, family-owned specialty paper converter located in Milwaukee. David and Mark Wilke, two of four brothers who run Leader Paper Products, will continue as consultants working with the Paper Adventures line. Their plans include product development, trade shows, and maintaining close contact with Paper Adventures' independent retail customer base.

The 11/29 issue of Forbes contains yet another article from the national media about our industry that is condescending and includes some "facts" that are dubious at best. Some inconsistencies:

The article compares scrapbooking to hula hoops and macrame. "How quickly a fad can sputter." But it also describes the "fad" this way: "The fever has spread – a quilting bee gone mad."

As evidence, the article says scrapbooking has doubled in size each of the last four years, but quotes Dennis Conforto, chair of the A-Z Media Group, as saying that scrapbooking will grow "a mere 25%" this year and includes Conforto's estimate that "1,000 of the current 4,000 to 4,500 small retailers could close within 18 months."

It reports Creative Memories should have sales of $425 million this year, up only 6% after years of double-digit growth. (The article does include a history of Creative Memories that is interesting and, we hope, accurate.)

The following is from Tom Ware, President of BagWorks:

Just read the letter from the scrapbook retailer with cash flow problems. She needs to know that her suppliers want her to succeed and they will work with her – all businesses have problems at some time. She must do a couple of things, though:

1. Stay in constant contact with her suppliers whether the news is good or bad. If she told them to expect a partial payment and the A/C compressor died that week and had to be replaced, then let them know. If she has an especially good week, then surprise them with a few extra bucks in the payment and make mention of what a great week it was. (We like good news!)

2. Try not to make promises she can't keep. She shouldn't tell vendors that she'll pay them before the end of the month to keep them from calling. That only works once; after that, you've blown all your good will.

3. Look at every single expenditure and cut wherever possible. Pennies add up to dollars.

4. If a vendor comes to visit, hide the BMW. (Comment: He's kidding, folks!)

Friday is the deadline for vendors to pay their final booth payments – and Dec. 17 is the deadline for registering to be included in the Innovations display. The buyer registration kits are being mailed this week. Many events sell out early, so keep these in mind:

1. Anyone attending or exhibiting at the CHA show for the first time is strongly encouraged to attend the orientation programs for buyers and sellers. The buyer program, for new buyers who've joined CHA since 2004, is Fri., Feb. 11, 5:30-7:00 pm. The new exhibitor orientation is the same night, 5:00-7:00 pm. The show is overwhelming for newcomers, and these orientation sessions will make it much easier.

2. A key to success in this industry is identifying trends early enough to take advantage of them. Industry veteran Deborah Murphy, president of Deborah M, Inc., will conduct a trend symposium Fri., Feb. 11, 9:30-11:30am. Tickets are $20 for CHA members, $40 for non-members. You'll learn how to identify trends of all types and how to successfully apply them to your business. You'll receive a trend resource notebook, too.

3. The stores on the always-popular Craftperson's Bus Tour are Michaels Star Decorators Wholesale Warehouse, Binders Art Supplies and Frames, Scrapbook Magic, and Angel Art Rubber Stamp Gallery.

Visit www.chashow.org for more info.

1. So Kmart and Sears, each the largest retailer in the country at one time, are merging. The result is a $55 billion retailer – and combined they will still be #3 behind Wal-Mart and Target. Each of them lost their top ranking because they couldn't figure out a niche in which to compete effectively against Wal-Mart. They still haven't. And until they do, I don't think the merger will make much difference.

2. Here's food for thought for any chain buyer who has considered accepting gifts or more from vendors: Clifford Pruitt Jr., a former regional VP for Wal-Mart, admitted in federal court to taking kickbacks totaling about $80,000 from a supplier, the Associated Press reported. Pruitt faces up to 20 years in prison and a fine of $250,000.

NEW STORE. A.C. Moore opened a new store on Long Island –in Bethpage. A report from an industry designer: "I was there grand opening weekend. Since Long Island has been so under craft-stored for so long, the store was crowded and a mess, but people were shopping and lines were long but moving. The back two corners were angled off in the shape of an equilateral triangle to form 'boutique' type areas. One was a kids product boutique and the other yarn/knitting. The kids' area, being filled with kids, was a mess – the downside, I suppose, of building something that attracts kids as well as parents. The more open layout of the yarn/knitting boutique, as opposed to the traditional aisles, really showed off the product which made it both more enticing and more accessible. The rest of the store was the standard A.C. Moore layout with almost an entire aisle of Donna Dewberry products."

INDEPENDENTS. The National Retail Federation published Challenges of the Future: The Rebirth of Small Independent Retail, available at www.retail-revival.com/home.htm.

WAL-MART. Third-quarter earnings rose 12.7% to $2.29 billion ($0.54), as Wall Street expected. Sales rose 9.5% to $68.52 billion. U.S. same-store sales, excluding Sam's Clubs, rose only 1.3%. CEO Lee Scott, who's complained recently about high fuel prices, said he sees the economy improving ... After pressure from the government, Wal-Mart announced it would permit branches of the official Communist Party-controlled union in its Chinese stores, the Associated Press reported. ... Thought-provoking reading: Selling Women Short: The Landmark Battle for Workers' Rights at Wal-Mart, by Liza Featherstone ... Wal-Mart told China Business Weekly that it would purchase $18 billion worth from China this year, up 20% from 2003, and the continued growth would mirror the discounter's overall growth.

GARDEN RIDGE. The chain of 35 stores saw October same-store sales drop 5%, but earnings exceeded the plan filed with the bankruptcy court by 14%, thanks to better margins and cost controls.

AWARDS. Jo-Ann's CEO Alan Rosskamm was awarded the Humanitarian Award for Northern Ohio by the National Conference for Community and Justice, America's premier human relations organization. Through education, leadership, training, and dialogue, NCCJ promotes understanding, respect, and goodwill among all races, religions, and cultures.

BEADS. "When I was in Manhattan two weeks ago I was shocked at the sudden explosion in bead stores in the Times Square area. I was last there just a few months ago and I only spotted one. This time there were about a dozen, all quite large, and all selling the same thing for about the same price. Most of the stores carried a button supply as well. From what I could tell, some buyers were using the beads for jewelrymaking but many were using the purchases for other uses as well, including altered art, fashion and home dec sewing, knitting additions, scrapbooking, etc." – Michelle Temares

LEAVING CRAFTS. Innovo, a supplier of canvas bags, aprons, etc., announced it was getting out of the craft business.

IMPORTS. The GOP is pushing to repeal the country-of-origin labeling laws passed by Congress in 2002 that are supposed to go into effect in 2006, the Associated Press reported.

PROFILES. Jardin, the corporate parent of Loew-Cornell and Forster, plus numerous other consumer products companies, was profiled in Business Week. Visit http://articles.retailforward.com/DisplayArticle.aspx?A=195897.

DUCKWALL-ALCO. For the quarter ended Oct. 31, earnings fell 60% to $210,000 ($0.05/diluted share), in part because of the AlixPartners' fee of $328,000 (or $0.07). Sales increased 1.3% to $99.9 million; same-store sales were flat. The board of directors also accepted the retirement of President/CEO Glen Shank, which will become effective by Apr. 30.

GLASS. Barbara Greve won the $1,000 prize in Plaid's "Designer Challenge" by creating more qualifying projects using Gallery Glass Redi-Lead Shapes. Her projects were published in five magazines. The "Challenge" was exclusively for members of the Society of Craft Designers. (Comment: I don't understand why more vendors don't use SCD like Plaid does. SCD members have a wealth of creative talent, and Plaid benefits with fresh designs and extensive consumer publicity. To learn how you can utilize SCD's extensive membership, call Exec. Director Mark Bennett at 740-452-4541, email mbennett@offinger.com, or visit www.craftdesigners.org.)

CANDLES. Blyth, a leading candle manufacturer, reported sales third quarter rose 2% to $439.4 million, but net earnings fell 13% to $30.2 million, due in part to a 9% drop in its direct-selling division.

TOYS. The Toy Industry Assn.'s board postponed a decision to move Toy Fair out of New York, Playthings reported. The board is considering the move in part because of construction in and around the Javits Center. The final decision will be announced in February. ... To register online for Toy Fair 2005 (Feb. 20-23 in New York) visit www.toy-tia.org/AITF.

ROLODEX. Modern Store Fixtures (formerly Modern Display Plastics): 265 State St., Leetonia, OH 44421. Call 330-427-6906; fax 330-427-6641.

JOB HUNTING. Experienced sales/marketing exec seeking involvement with craft industry company. Extensive experience in strategizing and selling majors, with a particular emphasis on Wal-Mart. If interested, please email Mike Hartnett at mike@clnonline.com.

LOOKING TO HIRE. Walnut Hollow is looking for a sales manager with at least five years of industry experience. Will report to the Dir. of Sales and will be responsible for direct selling to major national accounts and for managing independent rep groups. Relocation required. Up to 50% travel. Send resume/salary history and requirements to Walnut Hollow, Human Resources Manager, 1409 State Rd. 23, Dodgeville, WI 53533.

SCRAPBOOKS. To avoid conflicts with Yom Kippur, the 2005 MemoryTrends will be Oct. 10-12. For info, call 516-596-3937 or visit www.memorytrends.com ... A new scrapbook book publisher is looking for designs for its new book, The Scrapbooker's Color Palette. Visit www.cantatabooks.com. To read hard-core scrappers talking about how much they've spent on scrapbook supplies, visit www.twopeasinabucket.com/mb.asp?cmd=display&thread_id=904871.

CONDOLENCES. To the family of Kurt Adler, who passed away in late November. "He was the dean of the Christmas trims industry," one rep told us.

"Welcome to the Club!" That’s companies looking for a fresh new way to reach home dec and crafts enthusiasts will hear.

More specifically, welcome to the Creative Home Arts Club, a 275,000-strong national, membership-based organization of active and engaged creative women with an affinity for crafts. The Club’s mission is to help home arts enthusiasts enhance their knowledge, skill, and enjoyment of their passion for home arts. The Club provides its members with opportunities to enjoy many exclusive benefits, services, and products as part of their membership.

The best way to connect with those passionate crafters is through Today’s Creative Home Arts, the official publication of the Creative Home Arts Club and the primary benefit of membership. Delivered six times per year, this members-only, full-color magazine is a central gathering point for members to get and share ideas. Each issue is packed with unique, up-to-the-minute projects, plus exclusive member interaction opportunities like members-only competitions and contests, member-provided product reviews, assessments of member antiques and the chance to share ideas.

Research shows that this special combination of member involvement and fresh ideas attracts and keeps readers. Members of the Club have come to view Today’s Creative Home Arts as their trusted source for information.

Other membership benefits include opportunities to test (and keep) products related to the home arts lifestyle, special informational resource directories, exclusive product purchasing opportunities, discount opportunities on selected products and services, and access to the exclusive project-packed Club website.

The Creative Home Arts Club is owned and operated by North American Membership Group. NAMG, headquartered in Minnetonka, MN, is the world’s largest lifestyle affinity membership organization with more than 4.5 million members. NAMG is privately held by Doughty Hanson & Co. Ltd., Europe’s largest private equity fund manager. NAMG is the only company of its kind that successfully combines membership, publishing, and continuity marketing. It operates nine other clubs including North American Hunting Club, North American Fishing Club, Handyman Club of America, PGA TOUR Partners Club, National Home Gardening Club, Cooking Club of America, National Health & Wellness Club, The History Channel Club, and the National Street Machine Club. The NAMG website is located at www.namginc.com.

Today’s Creative Home Arts is published by North American Media Group, the publishing arm of North American Membership Group.

Rolodex. Marynell Christenson, publisher, Today’s Creative Home Arts, 12301 Whitewater Dr., Minnetonka, MN 55343. Call 800-448-8819, email creativehomearts@bellsouth.net.

Note: CLN will profile one company per issue, which will remain online for at least a year. A Profile is a perfect way for a new company to let itself be known to the industry, or for an established company to enhance its reputation by showing the industry its history, diversity of products, personnel, etc. For more information on how your company can be profiled, call Mike Hartnett at 309-925-5593 or email mike@clnonline.com.

To read the current job listings by the only personnel recruitment firm that specializes in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column, or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 29.00 ... Change**: +0.14
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 9.15 ... Change**: -1.74
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 26.89 ... Change**: +1.39
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 27.40 ... Change**: -3.19
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 52.93 ... Change**: -3.92
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 145.37 ... Change**: -.4.8%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,592.21 ... Change**: +0.5%

Emailed from a subscriber: A Nun asked her class to write notes to God. Some results:

Dear God: I didn't think orange went with purple until I saw the sunset You made on Tuesday. That was cool.

Dear God: Instead of letting people die and having to make new ones, why don't You keep the ones You already have?

Dear God: Maybe Cain and Abel would not have killed each other if they had their own rooms. That's what my Mom did for me and my brother.

Dear God: If You watch me in church on Sunday, I'll show You my new shoes.

Dear God: I bet it is very hard to love everyone in the whole world. There are only four people in our family and I'm having a hard time loving all of them.

Dear God: Did You mean for the giraffe to look like that or was it an accident?

Dear God: I went to this wedding and they kissed right in the church. Is that OK?

Dear God: Did You really mean "Do unto others as they do unto you"? Because if You did, then I'm going to get my brother good.

Dear God: Please send a pony. I never asked for anything before. You can look it up.

Dear God: You don't have to worry about me; I always look both ways.

Dear God: We read Thomas Edison made light. But in Sunday school they said You did it. So, I bet he stole Your idea.

1. For more information on how your business can be the subject of a "Business Profile" call Mike Hartnett at 309-925-5593 or email mike@clnonline.com.

2. If you want a hard-copy of this issue, click on "Printer Friendly version".

3. If your company is a paid subscriber, everyone in the main office is welcome to register, free. Just click on "Current Subscribers Click Here To Register."

4. If you want to recommend CLN to a friend, use the "Tell Your Friends" box on the home page.

5. Creative Leisure News is published the first and third Mondays of each month. Your next issue will be Monday, December 20.

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