Date: May 2, 2005
Vol. IX, No. 9

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: Changing Your Business 

Talk about a gutsy business decision. Last week ABC news broadcast a story about a milk farmer in Pennsylvania who is now raising goats instead. Apparently market forces were such that he couldn't make a living any more selling milk, and there's a big increase in demand for goat meat ... so he completely changed his business.

If you know about farmers, you know this fellow's father, grandfather, and maybe great grandfather were milk farmers. Imagine that guy facing his family and saying, "Dad, Grampa, I know the family has been raising milk cows for generations, but now I'm gonna raise goats."

Of course this is a huge gamble. What if the demand for goat meat is a fad that will die quickly? Demographic trends (the increase in immigrants who want goat meat) indicate this is not a fad, but who knows for sure?

Why am I writing about a goat farmer? Because the business he and his family loved wasn't providing for his family anymore – through no fault of his own. He saw a niche in the marketplace and went for it.

How many times in our industry has a manufacturer or retailer made the tough, courageous choice to change from milk to goats? How many went out of business because they couldn't make that change?

I hope ABC does a follow-up a few years from now to see if it worked. I certainly wish that farmer all the best.

"Benny Da Buyer". The latest Wal-Mart news: The retailer's charity work, criminal investigations against the former vice chair, compensation issues, and reactions to last issue's "So, Is Wal-Mart the Bad Guy?".

Business-Wise. Buying and Selling Your Business. A leading mergers & acquisitions pro explains the nuts and bolts of the process.

Legal Q. & A. What is "dumping"? How does it work? And why did Tara Materials file a complaint with the U.S. Commerce Department and the International Trade Commission? Highlights of the case are below, but the details are here.

Scene & Heard. Reports on the recent National Art Materials Trade Assn. show in Chicago. Plus, a fascinating history of Liquitex, one of the industry's most influential products.

Note. If you surf to a column and it's an "old" column, click the "Refresh" or "Reload" button of your browser.

Has scrapbooking peaked or is it still growing? What about yarn? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

This was a surprise: 75.3% of you read CLN online, and only 19.2% print it and read the hard copy. The remainder print a hard copy and pass it around the office – something that's unnecessary since everyone in the main office of a paid subscriber is welcome to register and access CLN, free. (Reminder: if you want a hard copy, click on "Printer-Friendly Version" and print that. It's the same material, but with wider margins so you use less paper and ink.)

Regarding the columns, 39.4% read all of them, 46.5% read most of them, 9.9% read an occasional column, and 4.2% don't read any.

Tara Materials has filed an anti-dumping petition with the Department of Commerce (DOC) and the International Trade Commission (ITC) against Chinese exporters of pre-stretched artist canvas, canvas panels, rolls, archival boards, and canvas pads. The outcome may affect not only the art materials category, but may also have implications for all U.S. vendors in competition with Far East suppliers.

In effect, dumping is when a foreign producer, in this case China, sells a product into the U.S. at a price that is below China's cost to manufacture it.

As CLN understands the process, for the DOC to consider the charge, it has to be made by U.S. vendors who comprise at least 25% of the market. Tara's Fredrix artist stretched canvas has well over that by itself. One other vendor, Duro Art Industries, has joined Tara in the petition.

There are two major phases to the anti-dumping determination. First, an investigation by the ITC to determine if there is material injury to the U.S. artist canvas industry. There was a conference in Washington, D.C. on the complaint last week and the ITC is expected to announce a preliminary determination later this month.

The second phase is conducted by the DOC to determine if actual dumping is occurring or if the products in question are less expensive simply due to lower operating costs. If the conclusion is dumping, then the DOC determines the tariff U.S. importers will have to pay for importing artist canvas from China.

A preliminary decision by the DOC is to be made in approximately 160 days, sometime in September 2005. A final decision will be issued in approximately 280 days, which should be sometime in January 2006.

Tara President Michael Benator said, "We are not seeking any unfair advantage or wish to restrict any supplier from selling artist canvas into the U.S. We only want a fair playing field that eliminates the unfair trade practice, where we all can compete equally."

An interesting point in the law, enacted four years ago and referred to as the Byrd amendment: if the complaining U.S. vendors win the complaint and tariffs are imposed, the vendors (in this case, primarily Tara) , not the U.S. government, receive the revenue from the tariffs collected. Not too long ago, U.S. candle manufacturers won such a case and have collected money in tariffs.

Tara's legal advisors said Congress is reconsidering the Byrd amendment and the policy of the U. S. Customs Service turning over collected tariffs may be rescinded. The European Union thinks the Byrd amendment is unfair and has recently won a decision in the World Trade Organization granting punitive tariffs against many products exported from the U.S. Starting yesterday, U.S. companies that sell paper, textiles, machinery, and farm produce to Europe will be hit by punitive tariffs of 15%, the New York Times reported.

(Note: To read more on the subject, including Tara's press release to customers, click on Legal Q. & A. in the left-hand column or click HERE.)

Primedia has pulled the plug on the new venture, Coterie Scrapbooking. The company was going to sell scrapbook and paper craft kits and publications and was led by President Mark Seastrand, former publisher of Creating Keepsakes, Simple Scrapbooks, and Paper Crafts for Primedia; Lisa Bearnson, founding editor of CK; and Becky Higgins, a CK contributing editor and author of numerous articles and books.

Apparently the concept angered some scrapbook vendors who provide the advertising base for the Primedia magazines, so Coterie was scrapped.

Seastrand has left to pursue other interests, and Lisa and Becky continue to serve as CK's founding editor and contributing editor.

Net income for the first quarter ended Mar. 31 was $1,252,000 ($0.06/fully diluted share) – essentially the same as last year's net income of $1,228,000 ($0.06). Sales for the quarter grew 10.2% to $122.9 million, but same-store sales declined 1.6%.

CEO Jack Parker said, "Although we were disappointed with our comp-store sales results and our flat net income performance, we are optimistic for the remainder of the year as we did see positive results in the 21 stores where conditions were consistent with the prior year. We are confident in our merchandising plans as well as with the improvements we are seeing in our distribution processes and productivity. This allows us to re-affirm our earnings forecast for the year of $1.06 - $1.09/share."

Congress passed and President Bush signed the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005, which was strongly endorsed by the National Retail Federation, banks, and the credit card companies. The law goes into effect in about six months and will require many debtors to work out repayment plans instead of having their obligations erased in bankruptcy court.

But for some retail chains, this may be a case of being careful what you wish for, because real estate companies were also lobbying Congress. Their efforts resulted in the 500-page bill including a provision that makes it more difficult for chains to use the bankruptcy court as a means of getting out of leases.

"This new law really puts [bankrupt] retailers under the gun," said Harold Bordwin, President/CEO of Keen Realty.

The law will affect a bankrupt retailer's vendors, too. The law requires bankrupt retailers to pay landlords in full within the first seven months, leaving less money available for other creditors. Bordwin predicts the result will be the "increasing likelihood that retailers in bankruptcy will liquidate rather than reorganize."

The National Retail Federation has revised its 2005 sales forecast and predicts retail industry sales (which exclude motor vehicles, gas stations, and restaurants) will increase 4.8%; last year sales grew 7.0%, the highest growth since 2004.

"The indomitable consumer has kept on spending in spite of high levels of debt and extremely low savings, but this pace cannot continue much longer," said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. "In addition to tough comparisons, which will plague the retail industry for most of the year, consumers will be stretched thin from rising interest rates, high energy prices, and modest gains in employment and income."

The NRF thinks building materials and garden equipment stores, luxury retailers, warehouse clubs, and electronic shopping will do well, but it will be a challenging time for discounters (because of gas prices) and department stores.

Yet in another study, the NRF is predicting Mother's Day spending will increase 9.5% to $11.43 billion, an average of $104.63/person. Flowers and greeting cards are the most common purchases, but the study predicts gift certificates will increase 10% this year. (Comment: If mom's a scrapbooker, crafter, etc., a gift certificate to one of our stores makes a perfect gift.)

Target and Yahoo are introducing Target Yahoo! Photos, a digital photo destination that allows photo enthusiasts to store, share, and print photos.

In the fall, Target Yahoo! Photos (at www.target.com/yahoophotos) will offer consumers the choice of ordering prints online and picking them up within a few hours at their local Target store. There are 1,330 stores in 47 states. They also have the option of having prints delivered to their home or office, or even to family and friends.

Consumers will have unlimited storage and can easily upload all their digital and camera-phone photos to Target Yahoo! Photos, and be able to share their photos by simply emailing a link to an online album to friends and family who could also order prints.

Photos can also be shared in real-time with Yahoo! Messenger, on a mobile phone, or through a personal public web address (e.g. http://photos.yahoo.com/susanphotosmith).

Consumers can also use their photos to create custom gifts, including mugs, aprons, and magnets, and have the gifts delivered directly to the recipients.

Recently Pam Riddell of the Riddell Group held the first meeting of independent scrapbook retailers in the Kentucky/Tennessee area. The meeting went extremely well, Pam said, and added: "I will ask you to take one question to the manufacturers for us, please. I don't have an answer to this, and you've got a great forum for reaching a lot of vendors. The question:

"Why can't manufacturers product an 'Independents Only' product for our stores, or a version of a product that's solely ours? I know it's a numbers game, but our retailers feel like they're always the stepchildren."

A little history here: In the 1980's, there were still thousands of independent craft stores, usually buying from a wide array of distributors. The chains were growing, but were much smaller than they are now.

I was the editor of an industry trade magazine, Profitable Craft Merchandising, and one day my phone lit up with calls from irate retailers and distributors. Apparently Michaels decided to use Delta paint as a temporary loss leader and was advertising it for less than retailers could buy it from distributors. The callers were convinced Delta, probably the best-selling acrylic paint at the time, had double-crossed its retail and distributor customers.

I investigated and learned that the poor folks at Delta, now all gone, had no idea Michaels was going to do this. They had sold to Michaels just as they always had done; I don't know what the price was, but it was not a special deal.

While I was working on the story, I talked to the VP of one of the distributors whom I thought was a particularly savvy marketer. He said, in effect, "Once a product starts getting footballed by the chains, it's lost to the chains forever. The best thing Delta could do now is develop a new paint, maybe Delta Deluxe or something. Make it a bit better than the regular line; then hold the price so the chains won't want it.

"Now the independents have a paint they can honestly tell their customers is better," he continued, "and the consumer won't be able to make an apples-to-apples price comparison."

That, in effect, is what scrapbook independents are asking their vendors.

Delta never developed a Delta Deluxe. (I wish it had, if for no other reason than to see if the theory worked.)

(Note: We've exchanged emails with a very bright independent scrapbook retailer and we mentioned we were concerned by the letter in the previous issue of CLN about some independents going out of business. Here's her reply.)

I'll be honest, things are really tight around here too. One store is closing, one other is contemplating it – and two of us are having a day-to-day struggle – and Recollections may open not too far away this summer.

Retail is down (not just our industry) and it is very frustrating. New stuff comes out faster than stores can sell through it. It's a self-consuming cycle.

I was re-racking stuff last week, and because the packaging was just about 1quarter-inch off, I had to completely change everything.

We're spending a TON on advertising right now, but it seems like the ads are really only reaching our current customers (not new ones). That's a problem. We'll be trying a billboard (since we are VERY close to an interstate highway).

Would you believe that 25% of our customers heard about us through word-of-mouth, and another 25% found out about us because of our street sign? 25% is "other" (I think that was the convention we did two years ago), and the rest is equally split between the newspaper, Val-Pack, and radio.

Seems to make sense that a billboard might be worth the investment (as well as putting a sign on the BACK side of our building which also faces the interstate).

On the other hand, customer reviews of our store are extremely positive. Our customer service is rated tops, and only one person (out of more than 500 surveys) thought we had a "poor product selection."

So, we'll have a $7,000 week, followed by a $16,000 week – and pray for a better summer/fall! (We're going to a home school convention, and have already lined up some other things for the fall). – Name Withheld

(Note: The following is from Chris Crombie, Managing Director of the HobbyCraft chain in Great Britain.)

Paper crafts accounts for a significant part of our store turnover; it is a massive category that seems to be going from strength to strength. Year on year we are up 25% in same stores on this category.

However, we are selling very few scrapbook-specific supplies. What do I mean by "scrapbook-specific"? Well, much of scrapbook supplies can be used in non-scrapbook projects. Sure, 12x12 paper is meant for scrapbooks, but I suspect most of it sold in our stores is being used in card making and other paper-craft projects. Scrapbook-specific items, such as the albums themselves, are showing weak sales.

Yes, there is a lot more talk, media attention, and even magazine titles devoted to the category, but my gut feel is that it is still only a minor element in the runaway success that is paper crafts. I am selling literally millions of card blanks versus hundreds of scrapbooks. – Chris Crombie, Managing Director, HobbyCraft Group Limited

1. Last week I had a delightful conversation with Helen Thomas, the retired dean of the White House press corps who was in Peoria as the keynote speaker at the annual YWCA awards banquet. When she worked for United Press Int., she and my dad used to compete against each other when he worked for the rival Associated Press.

We talked about what I do, and I half-joked that I thought I needed to go to law school to better understand international trade rules. Helen said, "Oh God, yes. I'm glad I don't have to report on that. I don't understand it. All I know is, it's a mess."

2. Congrats to needlework designer Lois Winston whose novel, Resurrecting Gertie, will be published by Dorchester Publishing. The novel is craft-related and includes a character who becomes the next Martha Stewart. We'll let you know when it's in stores.

3. An unhappy scrapbook vendor called last week, concerned about conversations she'd had with two of her retail customers. Both said they sell everything in their stores for MORE than the suggested retail price. Why, because apparently they are the only game in town and feel the market will bear it.

One of them, however, said an Archiver's is coming to town. If she continues to sell above the suggested retail, she'll be bankrupt within a year.

This is one more example of some retailers making the fatal mistake of believing margin is more important than turnover.

4. The March edition of Smithsonian profiles the incredible resurgence of Ireland which now has one of the strongest economies in Europe. But something is being lost: "Girls today aren't learning how to knit," laments Ann Omaille, who has been selling hand-knit garments in her shop since 1938. "Schools no longer teach it, and they're not learning it at home as I did.."

Be patient, Ann. if Ireland continues to follow the U.S. pattern, in about five years knitting will be one of the hottest trends in the country.

SHOWS. The TNNA/INRG show (June 11-13, in Columbus) will be even bigger this year: 875 booths and 106 technique classes and business seminars. Highlights include a Jubilee Gala celebrating TNNA's 30th anniversary which will include the Yarn Group's fashion show, the Needlepoint Group's Galleria, and live entertainment. The Retailer Luncheon features mountain climber Charlie Wittmack, son of TNNA board member DeElda Wittmack, speaking on "What Is Your Everest?" For info, call 740-455-6773, email tnna.info@offinger.com, or visit www.tnna.org. Online pre-registration for the show ends May 11.

TNNA. As part of its Stitch to WIN Against Breast Cancer campaign, TNNA will share a booth with its non-profit partner, WIN Against Breast Cancer, at the Revlon Run/Walk for Women in the L.A. Coliseum this Saturday, and Oct.1 TNNA will return to the Mall of America for its second fund-raiser there ... TNNA will provide the guest speakers on needlework for fashion and merchandising classes at the U. of Akron, where TNNA has helped develop needlework programs with the university's Dept. of Fashion Design.

SHOWS. Buyer Registration kits for the Craft & Hobby Assn. summer show in Chicago July 15-17 should be mailed this week. Organizers expect 580+ exhibitors in 1,400+ booths, 10+ mega workshops, and 61 technique workshops, and the Retail Summit. One popular feature that's being revived is shuttle service between Rosemont and Chicago's Navy Pier on Fri. and Sat. nights. For more, visit www.chasummershow.com.

PROMOS. CHA's efforts to promote National Craft Month (March) included a satellite media tour picked up by 185 tv stations in virtually every major market; a traveling media tour to New York, Tampa, Chicago and San Diego that resulted in tv/radio appearances by spokesperson Terri Oulette to almost 4 million viewers/listerns, and publications such as Good Housekeeping, Ladies Home Journal, and the Tampa Tribune; and retailer demonstrators on local tv shows with an audience of 3+ million. Magazine/newspaper articles reached 4+ million readers, public service radio announcements reached 2+ million, and an audio news release reached 3.4+ million.

CHA. Did you miss some of the seminars you wanted to attend at the recent CHA Atlanta show? Now 25 seminars are available on audio CD and MP3 CD. Visit www.craftandhobby.org ... CHA is continuing its headquarters restructuring to be more responsive to the members. John Tomchek and Rick Boyle have left CHA to pursue other opportunities. CEO Steve Berger expects to fill both positions soon.

AWARD. CHA won the third place Cyber Space award from the New York Society of Association Executives for the www.craftandhobby.org website, and the Division II Judges' Award from the NJ Chapter of the Business Marketing Assn. for "Total Communications Programs over $200,000."

SEWING. The Home Sewing Assn. released its schedule for two-day training workshops to be certified as a Trained Sewing Educator: Dallas, Apr. 22-23 ... Pittsburgh, Apr. 29-30 ...Boston, May 13-14 ... Atlanta, May 13-14 ... Denver, May 20-21 ... Minneapolis, May 20-21 ... Indianapolis, June 3-4 ... Tampa, June 17-18 ... Nashville, July 26-27. Visit www.sewing.org/educator/html/tsa.html for details.

KUDOS. Congrats to the Great American Scrapbook conventions for being named "One of the 100 Things That Make America Great" by Reader's Digest in its May issue.

TOYS. The American International Fall Toy Show will stay in New York — at least for the next couple of years.

MICHAELS. Investor's Business Daily recently profiled Michaels' perpetual inventory and automated replenishment systems, which have cost the company more than $125 million to improve its operating systems and infrastructure. IBD quoted CEO Michael Rouleau as saying "the implementation of these new systems puts in place the most significant sales and profit-generating tools ever for Michaels." The article also reported Michaels is testing five different store prototypes for what it calls its "perfect store" concept. The test runs in five stores in five different, unnamed markets and there are plans to expand the test to 20 additional stores in four additional markets.

STORES. A.C. Moore will expand further south than ever before, opening a store in Jacksonville this fall, reported the Jacksonville Business Journal. President/COO Larry Fine told the Journal the company plans to open 25 stores in Florida over the next three years ... While reporting on Jo-Ann's closing a traditional store and opening a superstore in the south suburban Chicago area, the Chicago Daily Southtown reported that Jo-Ann's traditional format locations average about $1.5 million in sales, while the superstores (more than twice as large) average $5.25 million and their sales/sq. ft. are 30% higher.

SOFTWARE. The Liquitex division of ColArt has introduced Pixel2Paint – color mixing software which allows the user to click on a color target within a standard color wheel to generate a specific mixing recipe. Created for Window-based computers, it's available as a free three-day trial at www.liquitex.com. Suggested retail is $24.95.

LICENSING. Look for the return of Holly Hobbie, an icon for little girls in the 1970's. One of the first licensed characters in history to break a billion dollars in retail sales, Holly is being brought back by American Greetings, Nickelodeon, and Viacom Consumer Products. (Comment: Seems like Holly would have potential for scrapbook paper, cross-stitch charts, etc.)

NEEDLEWORK. DMC launched Linen Embroidery Floss – 100% linen in 12 colors. Suggested retail is $1.29 for a 8.7-yard skein ... Also new is the Senso collection of crochet threads – 100% Cotton, Microfiber Cotton, Linen Cotton, Wool Cotton, Metallics, Denim and Rainbow Cotton. Visit www.dmc-usa.com.

SCRAPBOOKS. J.C. Penney's Mother's Day gift book catalog includes a scrapbook kit for $14.99. It features a large photo of a mother and young daughter looking at a scrapbook.

TV. The Bedazzler received a huge mention on last week's episode of The Apprentice on NBC. The candidates also went to Staten Island to buy beads at what we think was a Michaels. (The show is often repeated on CNBC during the week leading up to the next episode.)

CONDOLENCES. Joe Scarfo, Jr., 53, passed away after a three-year battle with cancer. Joe was sales manager for 20 years for Caron Int. and was loved by all who knew him. Our very best to his wife of 30 years, Julie, and their three children. The family requests that donations in Joseph's memory be made to Kamp for Kids, PO Box 219, Westfield, MA 01086.

MARTHA. The operating loss in the first quarter for Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia was $19.8 million compared to a loss of $16.5 million a year ago. Revenues were $38.7 million, down from $44.5 million a year ago. In conjunction with the quarterly report, the company announced Martha would make a line of home videos. No mention of how many would be craft related, but at least one will be on floral arranging.

RECOMMENDED READING. The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy by Pietra Rivoli, a fascinating report on the travels of the clothes you buy – tens of thousands of miles from the cotton plants in south Texas to your closet. Rivoli, an economist at Georgetown U., uses a T-shirt to explain international trade.

PEOPLE. Rick Caron is Director of New Business Development for Coats North America's Crafts division and Global Handknitting Liaison. Rick had been with Solutia and Caron Int. and was one of the driving forces in the launch of the Craft Yarn Council of America ... Andrew Carter was named Sr. VP of American Art Clay, responsible for domestic and international sales ... Miriam Davis was named Creative Director for Pulsar. She had been Creative Director for DMD Industries. Prior to DMD, she was VP of Sales and Product Development for Flexo-Crafts (gift wrap/custom packaging) and Susan Crane (specialty wrap). Visit www.pulsarpaper.com ... Aarin Young is the Design Coordinator for R. Star Int ... To replace Thomas Coughlin on the board, Wal-Mart nominated Linda Wolf, chair/CEO of Leo Burnett Worldwide, a huge ad agency. Another new board member is Douglas Daft, retired chair/CEO of Coca-Cola. (To read more on former vice chair Coughlin's legal troubles, click on Business-Wise in the left-hand column.)

AWARDS. Craftrends editorial director Bill Gardner won an award for his "Editor's Insight" columns from the Western Region of the American Society of Business Publication Editors (ASBPE). The award, which is in the Regular Column, Staff Written category for all business publications west of the Mississippi with circulations under 80,000, will be presented in June when it will be revealed if it’s the Gold, Silver, or Bronze award.

ROLODEX. AC Marketech Int. moved to 4930 Reed Rd., Ste. 230, Columbus, OH 43220. Call 614-442-1177; fax 614-442-1204; visit www.acmarketech.com ... New contact info for R. Star Int.: 123 Magnolia Lane, Roslyn Heights, NY 11577; 800-291-5772 and 516-626-8890; fax 516-626-8892; www.rstarinternational.com; email rsadur@aol.com.

LOOKING TO HIRE. A well established small Midwest art/craft manufacturer is seeking a Sales/Marketing Manager (emphasis on marketing). Responsibilities include managing a nationwide network of reps and establishing/managing a marketing department. This person should be wildly creative, a strong communicator, mechanically inclined, good with numbers, and have an unquenchable desire to try new ideas. For more, email Mike Hartnett at mike@clnonline.com.

Note: CLN will profile one company per issue, which will remain online for at least a year. A Profile is a perfect way for a new company to let itself be known to the industry, or for an established company to enhance its reputation by showing the industry its history, diversity of products, personnel, etc. For more information on how your company can be profiled, call Mike Hartnett at 309-925-5593 or email mike@clnonline.com.

To see the latest list of available jobs, click on Jobs in the left-hand column, or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 26.01 ... Change**: -2.08
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 5.92 ... Change**: -0.50
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 25.30 ... Change**: -0.25
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 33.20 ... Change**: -3.74
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 47.14 ... Change**: -3.14
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 137.57 ... Change**: -.2.0%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,192.51 ... Change**: +1.0%

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