Date: August 15, 2005
Vol. IX, No. 16

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: Price Will Be More Important  

Oil prices climbed to record highs above $67 a barrel on Friday; that's a 51% increase since the start of the year. A new poll conducted for the Associated Press and America Online News found that 64% of those polled think gas prices will cause money problems for them in the next six months; that's up from 51% in April.

In other words, price will become an even more important factor in consumers' buying decisions. It's time to emphasize once again that making Halloween costumes and decorations and Christmas presents and cards can save money over buying readymades.

If you have me in your address book, please change my email to mike@clnonline.com! Address all correspondence to mike@clnonline.com.

CLN has added a search engine to the site – it's in the upper right-hand corner of the main page and the current issue. Want to re-read a certain article or get a new employee up to speed about a particular company? Type in the key words (e.g., Michaels) and click on Search.

 Memory, Paper & Stamps. Why aren't independents more "loyal" to the small vendors who support them? An independent tells why.

Designing Perspectives. How does a manufacturer find the right freelance designer? With the Society of Creative Designers' educational seminar coming up, the answer is easy.

"Vinny Da Vendor". How do we grow the scrapbook category? Simple, savvy advice and an optimistic view of the effect digital photography will have.

Legal Q. & A. Kandi Corp. files suit against Creative Crystal Co., Lucia Reid, and Haute Mode Inc.

Others. If you missed them earlier, Business Wise tells the 25-year-old saga of a non-crafter finally getting hooked and becoming an enthusiast ... Kate's Collage is a newspaper editor's discovery of scrapbooking ... "Benny Da Buyer" is an analysis of a small vendor's business demise; what went wrong and who's to blame ... Category Reports contains highlights of the Home Sewing Assn.'s new size of industry study ... Scene & Heard analyzes the bead market and the recent Button&Bead show ... New Trade Show Exhibitors: last call to check the new exhibitors at the recent CHA Summer Show ... Tech Topics shows how one industry company handled the nightmare of a hacker breaking into its website.

Note. If you surf to a column and it's an "old" column, click the "Refresh" or "Reload" button of your browser.

Has the rising price of oil and gas affected your sales? Has it eaten into your profits? Do you think it will? Judging by the results of the CLN Retail Index, Wall Street certainly things it will. To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

Buyers. 8.3% thought the exhibits/products were "excellent"; 25.0% rated them "very good"; 41.7% said they were "good"; 25.0% said "fair"; and no one rated them as "poor." 

The workshops and seminars did not fare as well. A whopping 53.8% did not participate. No one thought they were "excellent"; 8.3% rated them "very good"; 25% said they were "good"; 8.3% said "fair"; and no one rated them as "poor."

As for returning to the show in 2006, one third said "yes," 16.7% said "no," and half of the voters said they were not sure.

Exhibitors. 18.2% said the buyers' response to the vendors' booths/products was "excellent"; 40.9% said it was "very good"; 9.1% thought the response was "good"; 27.3% rated it "fair", and 4.6% said it was "poor". 

Almost 41% plan to exhibit at the 2006 Summer Show; 13.6% will not exhibit again; and 45.5% are not sure.

Jo-Ann's has introduced a line of scrapbook products that appears to be under the brand name of Creating Keepsakes magazine, but it is not quite as it seems.

Dave O'Neill, VP/Group Publisher of Primedia, the publisher of Creating Keepsakes, Simple Scrapbooks, Craftrends, and other industry-related magazines, explained:

"There was a mistake made in the execution of a Creating Keepsakes licensing program that resulted in the products being released to Joann's that appear to be produced by Creating Keepsakes. We regret this mistake, are taking immediate actions to ensure it is not repeated, and apologize to our industry partners for any consumer confusion this may temporarily cause.

"Creating Keepsakes has two licensing programs," Dave added. "First, a program for editorial based kits and organizational items. Second, a CK/OK program. This designation is offered to any manufacturer that passes our archival guidelines and receives the right to have a CK/OK designation on their packaging and advertising. It is in this second licensing program that the mistake occurred. Products were shipped to Jo-Ann's that had the CK/OK designation but did not have appropriate labeling of the manufacturer – therefore creating a CK/OK approved product. 

"The CK/OK products were to carry the Scrappin' Creations brand which had earned the CK/OK certification. CK/OK is and will continue to be available to all manufacturers who pass the archival guidelines. In no way was the CK/OK designation supposed to intimate that these products were Creating Keepsakes branded products. I sincerely apologize to our industry partners that this distinction is not apparent in the current execution and we are working to get this fixed ASAP."

"The product launch was coordinated through the Primedia licensing division in Los Angeles," Dave continued, "and we are now working with this division to get this issue resolved immediately. We are very sensitive about protecting the Creating Keepsakes brand – an important element of which is our relationship with the manufacturing and retail community – and we're extremely upset about the perceived conflicts."

When the first news of the line became public, one very influential independent said, "Have you seen the ads for Creating Keepsakes magazine and the new line of products as an exclusive to Jo-Ann's? My only point here is that CK has sold itself as an 'independent' supplier and builder of the memory aspect of the industry. Jo-Ann's action I have no issue with – only the dialog you have been publishing about the reliability of what vendors say and the support they get from the independent part of the industry as a result – and then something like this."

A well known designer wrote, "You probably have heard about this already, but I received a flyer in the mail from Jo-Ann's featuring 'Creating Keepsakes Scrapbook Essentials.' It's a tote full of supplies including a paper trimmer and scissors (they were pictured). I wonder how CK/Primedia would feel if EK or Fiskars (for example) started their own magazines.

"I could understand it if it was done under Lisa Bearnson's name; she has definitely branded herself well for scrapbooking, but for a publishing company.... Things have really changed these past few years. I just wonder how far it will go."

Each of Michaels' 870 stores will host a Scrapbook Discovery Day Aug. 27 from 1-5 pm. The four-hour event offers an interactive experience for beginner scrapbookers and card-makers with free activities, including four make-it take-it activities and five demonstrations. Customers can also win a gift basket filled with scrapbook and papercraft supplies.

Products in the make-it/take-its include the new Scotch Brand Keepsake Box and Quick-Dry Tacky Adhesive, The Paper House stickers, Ultra ShapeXpress Cutting Tool by Fiskars, ProvoCraft's Coluzzle Cutting System, Tombow Adhesive, and papers from Hot Off the Press.

The demonstrations will feature Grafix Transparent Vellums and Strathmore Picture Frame Cards, Generations Adhesive Mulberry Papers, Thomas the Tank Engine stickers from Sandylion, Me & My Big Ideas School Kids stickers, Sharon Ann Collection of Baby Papers, and the Xyron 900 Repositionable Adhesive.

(Comment: Kudos to Michaels for this effort to attract new consumers to scrapbooking and papercrafts. Scrapbook and craft stores of all sizes should sponsor similar events. It's ironic, in one sense, however. A store need not simply emphasize new products; novices don't know if a product is new or old.)

Michaels is also sponsoring a Free Family Event at all stores on Saturday, Sept. 17. Decoart, Scotch Brand, and Darice are co-sponsors. Kids will be designing Halloween-themed marshmallow foam characters.

The hot weather and possibly high gas prices cooled off sales for many retailers, including many in our industry. "The expectations for this month were high, but so far I would characterize the results as slightly disappointing," said Gint Rimas, a Thomson Financial analyst, to CBS MarketWatch.

Jo-Ann's same-store sales slipped 1.5% while overall sales rose 2.9% to $117.4 million. For the quarter, sales increased 3.5% to $383.8 million, but same-store sales were down 0.5%. So for the first two quarters combined, sales are up 3.7% and same-store sales are up 0.1%.

Because of softer than anticipated sales for the quarter and particularly in July, company execs now expect the quarter's loss to be $0.22-$0.24 when results are announced today; the previous estimate was a $0.10-$0.15 loss. The company also lowered its full-year earnings guidance to $1.65-$1.75 due to the second quarter's results and lower expectations for the second half of the fiscal year. Execs are still expecting same-store sales to grow 3-4% in the second half, particularly in the third quarter, but increased store opening/closing costs will hurt results by approximately $0.12/share.

Among the discounters, Wal-Mart U.S. stores' same-store sales rose 4.2% and Sam's Club's were up 5.1%. Overall, Wal-Mart's same-store increase was 4.4%. Wal-Mart continues to increase its overall sales by $1-2 billion every month, but again Target's same-store sales were better, up 5.5%.

Hancock's same-store sales fell 7.9%; overall sales slipped 7.5% to $26 million. For the second quarter, same-store sales are down 8.1% and overall sales 7.2% to $83.3 million. Year to date, same-store sales are off 7.5% and overall sales are down 7.1% to $181.1 million.

Others: Bombay, - 3.0% ... Big Lots, - 0.6% ... BJ's Wholesale, + 4.7% ... Costco, +5.0% ... CVS, +5.1% ... Dollar General, +3.1% ... Duckwall-Alco, +5.2% ... Factory Card & Party, +0.6% ... Family Dollar, -1.6% ... Pier 1 Imports -7.7% ... Rite Aid, +0.8% ... ShopKo, -4.9% ... Walgreen, +5.9%.

Michaels reported second-quarter sales rose 9.2% to $745.5 million, and same-store sales rose 4.2%, thanks to a 2.4% increase in average ticket, a 1.4% increase in transactions, and a 0.4% increase in custom frame deliveries.

Year-to-date sales have risen 11.2% to $1.567 billion and same-store sales are up 6.1%; transactions are up 3.2%; the average ticket is up 2.4%, custom frame deliveries are up 0.5%, and a favorable Canadian currency translation added approximately 0.4% to the average ticket.

President/CEO Michael Rouleau attributed the strong performance to higher in-stock positions, stronger sales of regular price merchandise, and improved merchandising execution.

Rouleau said the Pacific, Southwest, and Southeast zones same-store sales rose 6%, while the weather held the increase in the Northern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast zones to 1%. The top departments were Jewelry & Beading, Paper-crafting, Foam, and Yarn. (Comment: CLN believes this is the first time in recent memory that jewelry/beading was named a top category.)

Michaels re-iterated its expectation that the second quarter's diluted earnings/share would be $0.20-$0.22, up from $0.19 a year ago, thanks to income growing 25-30%. There will be additional costs associated with the early redemption of its senior notes. Same- store sales are still expected to rise 3-5% in the second half of the year and fiscal year earning to increase 25-30% over last year's $1.45.

The Ben Franklin store in Peoria Heights, IL is closing. The store has been a family-run institution in the Peoria area since 1939, but now owners Jerry and Marie Hoerr are retiring. The store was the epitome of a full-line, family-run craft store – narrow aisles, shelves crammed with merchandise – and offered just about everything. A Peoria Journal Star columnist called it "The Store That Time Forgot."

The chains moved in – Michaels, Jo-Ann's, Hancock, Wal-Mart, Hobby Lobby, and Jeffrey Alans – and the Hoerrs saw their sales drop 25%; but that's not why they're closing, Jerry, 74, told the Peoria Journal Star. "We want to be free of the whole thing and not be under any time constraints."

"The store has become a virtual landmark, providing generations of customers with nostalgic memories of the good old days of retailing," the Journal Star wrote in a front-page article. But the Hoerrs believe times are changing. "Crafts have dried off," Marie told the Journal Star. "People aren't doing it as much. The smaller stores are really hurting. It's a dying business."

As CLN reported earlier, Congress is considering legislation that would allow companies to buy health insurance through trade associations. On the surface, it appears to be an excellent idea, but may not be as beneficial as it first appears. Consider if the legislation passes:

1. A trade association makes a deal with a health insurance company X to offer insurance to its members for what appears to be a reasonable price. But the price is reasonable because X made deals with certain hospitals and doctor groups. They become X's "preferred providers" and the insurance only pays if the consumer receives treatment from these preferred providers.

That may be fine for association members in Peoria, because the Peoria hospitals and doctors are preferred providers. But not so good for the association member in Poughkeepsie because the local hospital there is not a preferred provider.

Another fly in the ointment was described by a health insurance exec: Lack of critical mass. Because trade association members of all sizes are scattered over multiple states, it is difficult to negotiate favorable rates with hospitals and doctors when there isn't substantial patient numbers in any defined geographical area.

2. In that case, perhaps Poughkeepsie businesses of all sorts can form a Poughkeepsie trade association and find a health insurance company that will negotiate favorable rates with the Poughkeepsie medical establishment. Sounds good, but as time passes, individual companies looking as usual to boost their profits may opt out of the system if they have a healthy workforce. Then the association will consist of companies whose members use the insurance often and for expensive treatment. That will result in higher rates.

Still, the legislation probably is not a bad idea, but it won't be a panacea. CLN will continue to monitor the legislation as it wends its way through Congress.

Playthings reports that the latest Toy Tracker Survey from the research firm Funosophy, tracked 200 mothers of kids 3-5 years old. The survey ask them what activities interested them.

"Interested In For Myself Only": Scrapbooking, 31% ... Yarn and Needle Crafts ... 22% ... Beads, 4% ... Tie-Dye ... 3% ... Sketching/Drawing/Coloring ... 2% ... Painting/Watercolors ... 2% ... Craft Kits with Mixed Materials ... 1%.

"Interested In To Do with My Child Only": Sketching/Drawing/Coloring, 48% ... Painting/Watercolors, 47% ... Edible Crafts (with food), 34% ... Beads, 33% ... Crafts with Mixed Materials, 33% ... Tie-Dye, 25% ... Yarn and Needle Crafts, 11% ... Scrapbooking, 4%.

To order the complete study, visit www.funosophy.com/Research.asp.

1. In the last issue I described the sad decline of plastic canvas as a category. If you'd like to see how lovely plastic canvas projects can be, check the work of veteran designer Joan Green. Visit www.joangreendesigns.com.

2. In Miscellaneous News you'll read about a new bead show in Orlando next month. If it's anything like the Bead&Button show held in Milwaukee in June, it will be an eye opener to most industry people. From what I saw, the bead category is MUCH larger than you would think if you looked only at the craft trade shows, trade magazines, and stores.

Here's a category with no trade shows or trade magazines and only a fair presence in our stores – and is doing just fine, thank you.

3. In the previous issue I mentioned that 2.27 million entries pop up when I typed "scrapbooking" in Google. An alert reader pointed out that if you type in "candle making," you get 2.41 million entries and "soap making" will give you 6.14 million entries.

4. Some housekeeping: Every time an issue goes online, about a half dozen people contact me because they forgot their password, or it doesn't seem to work. Rather than contact me, then have to wait for me to respond, click on "Trouble With Your Password?" in the right-hand column. The computer will immediately email the info to you.

And almost always the problem is the subscriber forgot that the picky computer is case sensitive. In other words, if I registered Mike as a password, the computer won't later accept MIKE or mike.

LAWSUITS. Last week Wal-Mart appealed a court decision that turned a sex discrimination suit brought by six former and current employees into a class-action suit. If the appeal is denied, as many as 1.6 million former and current female employees could be involved, making it the largest sex discrimination suit in U.S. history.

CONSTITUTION. The American Civil Liberties union has come to the aid of many a minority, and now it's helping ... Wal-Mart. The Yelm, WA town council is debating allowing Wal-Mart to build a store in the town of 4,500, but has banned the word "Wal-Mart" and the phrase "big-box store" from being used in council meetings. The ACLU is objecting to what clearly appears to be a violation of the First Amendment.

ENVIRONMENT. Wal-Mart opened its first environmentally friendly store in Texas. It includes a 120-ft. tall wind turbine that will produce about 5% of the store's energy and a rainwater harvesting pond designed to provide 95% of the water, Forbes reported.

PROTESTS. The Wake Up Wal-Mart group sponsored protests against the retailer in 24 states. Named "Send Wal-Mart Back to School," the campaign is being supported by the country's two largest teacher groups, the American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Assn. The group was complaining about low wages paid to Wal-Mart employees.

PRICES, I. In a long interview with USA Today, Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott outlined strategies for improving the company's performance. Its monthly same-store sales haven't increased more than Target's since May, 2004 and the stock has languished while Target stock has risen 31% in the past year. Much of the article was typical CEO-speak; the company will work harder, improve merchandising, etc., etc. but Scott said they would start offering higher-ticket items to attract wealthier customers. (Comment: Wal-Mart may have learned that lesson by its success selling some of the new yarns that are pricier than the traditional basics.)

PRICES, II. Commenting on Wal-Mart's plan to attract more affluent customers, Chicago Sun Times business columnist. Lewis Lazar wrote, "To succeed, Wal-Mart is going to have to tweak the rather unadorned image it has cultivated in ad campaigns to date. The first attempts at an image shift can be seen in the new back-to-school advertising from Wal-Mart agency of record GSD&M .... These spots may represent a small step forward in revamping Wal-Mart's marketing image. But the retailer and GSD&M will either have to commit fully to a major and memorable overhaul, or else go back to the basics that have worked so well for Wal-Mart for so long."

BEADS. The first Bead & Art Glass Fest will held at the Orlando Convention Center Sept. 30 – Oct. 2, sponsored by Offinger Management and Bead Unique magazine. There will be a wide variety of classes for both bead and glass enthusiasts taught by well known glass and bead instructors, plus special trade-only hours and business seminars. Education starts Sept. 29. For info on attending or exhibiting, visit www.beadandartglassfest.com, call 740-452-4541, or email beadandartglassfest@offinger.com.

MEDIA. Paperpourri is a new e-zone published quarterly on CD-ROM for paper crafters. Each issue will include project tutorials, techniques, ideas, and art. Projects include decorative boxes, mini shrines, art dolls, altered playing cards, wall art, visual journals, greeting cards, etc. Projects are typically created with rubber stamps and other products provided by sponsors. A single issue is $8; a 4-issue subscription is $28. For more, email Carole at carole@tuliphillstudio.com, call 540-987-8566, or visit www.paperpourri.com.

CROCHET. Designer Lisa Gentry was recognized by The Guinness World Records as the "World's Fastest Crocheter." To learn more and see Lisa's work, visit www.caneyladyscreations.com.

SHOWS. MemoryTrends was named one of 50 fastest growing trade shows in North America by Tradeshow Week. The show has grown from 34,100 net sq. ft. in 2002 to 88,500 net sq.ft. in 2004. The 2005 show, presented by Craftrends, is Oct. 10-12 in Las Vegas. For info, visit www.memorytrends.com.

BOOKS. Twice a year the Library Journal publishes a craft bestseller list, the titles most in demand by libraries and bookstores from Baker & Taylor nationwide. To see the list published in the July 27 issue, visit www.libraryjournal.com/article/CA622682.html. Interweave Press and Sterling had the most bestsellers in the top 20 – four each. The top two were Stitch 'n Bitch: The Knitter's Handbook and Stitch 'n Bitch Nation, both by Debbie Stoller and published by Workman. Knit/crochet had 13 titles in the top 20, followed by paper/scrapbooking with 4.

PAINTING. The Decorative Painter, the magazine published by the Society of Decorative Painters, won a 2005 Apex Award for publication excellence sponsored by Communications Concepts, a trade group for professional communicators. There were 5,000+ entries, and it's the third year in a row the magazine has won. To place an ad, call Sara Perkins at 316-269-9300, ext. 111, or email sara@decorativepainters.org. Advertising is also available for business members in SDP's Chapter Happenings e-zine. And booth reservations are being taken for the annual Conference/Expo June 8-10 in Nashville. Call Yvonne at ext. 109 or email yvonne@decorativepainters.org.

KNITTING. The August 1 issue of Newsweek includes an article, "Talking Dirty on your iPod," about pornography on "podcasts," and suggests as an alternative KnitCast, a podcast about knitting. Visit www.knitcast.com.

TAXES. Nine states and the District of Columbia are doing away with the sales tax on back-to-school shopping, USA Today reported. Often these programs are tax neutral, reports the National Retail Federation. While shopping for tax-free items, consumers also buy other taxable products, too.

TECHNOLOGY. Staples unveiled a new service for small businesses needing help with digital technology. (Don't we all?) The Easy Mobile Tech program will send a technician to a customer's home/office for computer repairs, setting up new systems/software, etc. Prices for a house call start at $99.99.

ENVIRONMENT. Strathmore’s owner, Mohawk Paper Mills, made the U.S. EPA's Top 25 list of the largest "green power" purchasers who buy or generate enough renewable energy to power 157,000+ homes, reported MacPherson's ArtiFax.

INTERNET. The ongoing interest in home improvements/decorating is evidenced by the latest A.C. Nielsen/NetRatings report. The HGTV network experienced the largest increase, with visits climbing 39% to 3.9 million from 2.8 million a year earlier. Art.com rose 33% and DIY Network was up 27%. Ebay Crafts had 3.5 million visits.

INTERNET. California's 1st District Court of Appeals ruled Borders must collect sales tax for sales made in that state even though Borders does not fulfill Internet orders in California. Could this be an omen of the time when all e-commerce transactions will require sales tax?

QUOTATION. "In school you learn the lesson, then you take the test. In life, you take the test, then you learn the lesson" – Rev. Jesse Jackson

NEWSPAPERS. The Virginian-Pilot published a profile of Bob Sasser, former exec for Michaels and now the CEO for Dollar Tree. Since Sasser joined the company in 1999, it has more than doubled its number of stores, to 2,800+ and sales have increased 150%. (Comment: And given Bob's background, you can bet he and another ex-Michaels exec, DT's Bob Rudman, will keep a close eye on our industry, particularly scrapbooking.)

STOCK. Michaels repurchased an additional 457,900 shares of the company's common stock during the second quarter of fiscal 2005 under its stock repurchase plans. Since the end of the quarter, Michaels repurchased an additional 34,100 shares. As of Aug. 4, under its repurchase plans, the company is authorized to repurchase approximately 2.95 million additional shares plus shares repurchased with proceeds from the future exercise of options under the company's 2001 general stock option plan.

LOOKING TO HIRE. Northeast-based 40-year-old trimming/craft manufacturer looking for a seasoned sales/marketing rep. Must have regional/national contacts w/proven track record w/the industry chains. Excellent package for the right person. For more info, email Mike Hartnett in confidence at mike@clnonline.com.

CORRECTION. We published an incorrect URL for one the new CHA Summer Show exhibitors. Visit www.violettestickers.com to see Violette Stickers' line of lovely stickers.

To see the latest listings by the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 26.05 ... Change**: -2.68
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 6.33 ... Change**: -0.57
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 24.26 ... Change**: -3.26
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 37.97 ... Change**: -3.03
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 48.70 ... Change**: -0.65
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 143.31 ... Change**: -.6.6%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,600.31 ... Change**: -0.04%

A lawyer and a blonde are sitting next to each other on a flight from L.A. to New York. The lawyer asks if she would like to play a fun game. The blonde is tired and just wants to take a nap, so she politely declines and rolls over to the window to catch a few winks.

The lawyer persists. He explains how the game works. "I ask you a question, and if you don't know the answer, you pay me, and vice-versa."

Again, the blonde politely declines and tries to get some sleep.

The lawyer figures that since his opponent is a blonde he will easily win the match, so he makes another offer. "If you don't know the answer, you pay me only $5, but if I don't know the answer, I will pay you $500."

The blonde figures there will be no end to this torment unless she plays, so she agrees.

The lawyer asks, "What's the distance from the Earth to the moon?"

The blonde reaches in to her purse, pulls out a five-dollar bill, and hands it to the lawyer. Then she asks the lawyer "What goes up a hill with three legs, and comes down with four?"

The lawyer is puzzled. He uses his laptop to search for references. He taps into the air-phone with his modem and searches the Net and the Library of Congress. Frustrated, he sends emails to his coworkers and friends. No luck. After an hour, he gives up. He wakes the blonde and hands her $500.

The blonde politely takes the $500 and turns away to get back to sleep.

The lawyer, who is going nuts trying to figure it out, wakes the blonde and asks, "Well, so what goes up a hill with three legs and comes down with four?"

The blonde reaches into her purse, hands the lawyer $5, and goes back to sleep.

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5. Creative Leisure News is published the first and third Mondays of each month.  Because August has five Monday's, your next issue will be Monday, September 5. HAPPY LABOR DAY!

xxx

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