Date: October 17, 2005
Vol. IX, No. 20

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: The State of Scrapbooking  

Based on numerous conversations before and during MemoryTrends, I think the key is this: The number of stores selling at least some scrapbook supplies has grown faster than scrapbooking itself, so the pie is being divided into more and smaller pieces. The latest example is Menards. Yes, the country's third largest hardware chain is now selling scrapbook supplies. "Some of my major customers now are companies who've never sold craft or scrapbook supplies before," one major vendor told CLN at the MemoryTrends show.

The result is that many independent retailers who are under-financed and not possessing strong merchant skills are going out of business. It's terribly sad for those who are closing their doors (see the article below), but may not necessarily be bad for the industry. Five strong shops in, say, Denver, is better than 15 weak ones.

The ultimate question: Based on retail sales, is consumer interest in scrapbooking waning or increasing? That's impossible to say with any certainty because scrapbooking is the first industry category that has spread into so many "non-craft" stores.

With every other hot trend, I could make about six phone calls to the right people and feel reasonably confident that wearable art was fading or cross stitch was increasing. But I don't have contacts at Menards, for example. Who knew I'd ever need one?

"Benny Da Buyer". Mike Dupey, one of the industry's pioneering geniuses, offers a blunt, critical analysis of the industry.

Kate's Collage. A thought-provoking letter about government aid to hurricane victims. Should it be public (tax money) or private?

Business-Wise. A small manufacturer asks some tough questions about the number of trade shows and receives some interesting answers.

Note. If you surf to a column and it's an "old" column, click the "Refresh" or "Reload" button of your browser.

Apparently the government is going to pay for Katrina and Rita by simply printing more money, but thus far that's not what CLN readers suggest. More than half, 52.5%, want the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq ... 30% want Congress to cut spending ... 10% suggest rolling back the tax cuts ... 5% think Congress should postpone the Medicare prescription drug benefit ... 2.5% want to raise taxes. Not a single reader suggests simply increasing the federal budget deficit.

What's your opinion? If you haven't voted, the polls are still open. Click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE. CLN will report on the final tally in the next issue.

Given all of the industry talk about the slow summer and tales of retailers going out of business, MemoryTrends was a pleasant surprise: more upbeat and positive than anticipated. It was a tough summer, but CLN heard business picked up for some in mid-September.

Numbers. Attendance was up slightly, although it may not have "felt" larger because there were more booths, thus spreading out the buyers. The number of exhibitors was about the same, but they took more booths, and the number of new exhibitors was down.

Trends. Clearly, the category is expanding beyond scrapbooking to encompass a wide variety of paper-crafting products and ideas, even bookbinding (which made the show successful for Halcraft) ... Digital photos are also having an impact with numerous computer-driven software packages.

Research. Craftrends released the executive summary of its new research project on independent scrapbook stores, Scrapbook Retailing in America 2005. Average annual sales: $264,500 ... Average store size:2,574 sq. ft. ... Average years in business: 4.93 ... Number of SKU's in store: 5,817 ... Inventory investment currently in store (retail value): $156,100 ... Average number of turns/year: 4.34 ... Average mark-up: 88%. More details will be released in the November issue of Craftrends and the complete study can be purchased for $99.

Quotation. "This industry is still spending way to much time and effort on technique and not nearly enough on story-telling."

2006. MemoryTrends will be Oct. 10-12, at the Sands Convention Center in Las Vegas.

Paper Zone, a Seattle-based retail chain with a total of 15 stores in WA, OR, and CA, purchased 17 Memories & More Stores, a Salt Lake City-based retailer with stores in CA, CO, CN, FL, GA, IL, NC, TX, UT, and VA.

Memories & More Stores, operating under the trade name Memories, opened its first store in 1995. The company also operates www.memories.com, and launched a wholesale business, Making Memories, which was spun off as a separate company in 2002. Paper Zone was founded in 1992 and plans to grow to 100+ stores via new stores and acquisitions. It is one of a growing number of companies under the corporate umbrella of Intracorp Capital, a Seattle-based investment company.

Paper Zone CEO/President Curt Gray said "Memories has established itself as a leader in scrapbook retailing. Paper Zone has a heritage of innovation in fine paper and paper crafts. We plan to utilize both the Paper Zone and Memories brands as they have unique value in the marketplace. We have a significant merchandising opportunity in integrating the best of both concepts. The combined strengths of the companies will create the most dynamic and authoritative paper craft company in the U.S."

(Note: Reprinted with permission from Katie Hacker's Fall, 2005 newsletter. Katie appears on the PBS series, Beads, Baubles & Jewels (www.beadsbaublesandjewels.com), and her book, Katie’s Basics of Beading, has sold 90,000+ copies for Hot Off The Press.)

1. Big beads: After a year of popularity, oversized strands of beads are still going strong.

2. Long layers: Wear one waist-length, one just below the collar and one super short strand for a very fashion-forward look.

3. Tassels: Combine short lengths of chain or beads to make your own simple tassel. Wear it as a pendant or make two smaller ones and attach them to earrings.

4. Fibers: Tiny pearls knotted on mohair, large gemstones secured on satin cord with macrame techniques, and small glass beads worked into crochet patterns are just a few examples.

5. Simple Stringing: Extravagant pieces will always be in style, but fall’s trendsetters are sporting simple pieces that are easy to make yourself. Play with color and experiment with combining different textures.

Visit Katie's site at www.katiehacker.com.

Tough sales last month? Join the club. Rising gas prices, weather, Katrina, and Rita – it's no surprise. "We're getting a very mixed picture from our reading," Michael Niemira, chief economist at the Int. Council of Shopping Centers, told CBS MarketWatch. "On the surface, the results look a little better than expected. But there's a lot of noise, with the hurricanes, store closures, and gas prices. Beneath the surface, it was as worrisome as we thought."

Our industry's stores were seriously affected. CLN previously reported on Jo-Ann's (see below), and A.C. Moore also reported a tough third-quarter. Sales rose 6.9% to $115.1 million but same-store sales fell 4.3%. (The company opened seven stores in the quarter, raising the store count to 105.) Same store sales in the third quarter of 2005 decreased by 4.3% versus 2004.

For the nine months ended September 30, sales are up 9.7% to $351.5 million, but same-store sales are down 1.8%.

CEO Jack Parker blamed the decline on a 6.2% drop in customer traffic due to rising gasoline prices and hot, dry weather. The average sale increased by 1.9%."We believe our fourth quarter merchandising plans are strong and will be effectively executed," Parker said, "but there is significant uncertainty in the current economic environment and how the consumer will react during the critical fourth quarter."

Parker estimated that third quarter results, to be released Wednesday, to be a loss of $0.10- to $0.12/share. Analysts had been expecting a profit of $0.05/share, Reuters reported. Execs will provide a new earnings guidance for the year on Wednesday.

Hancock's same-store sales fell 6.3% for the month and have fallen 6.3% for the fist two months of the quarter. CEO Jane Aggers said, "After September's disappointing first week in which Hurricane Katrina hit and gas prices spiked, we did see some improvement in our trend. Year-to-date, through August, comparable store sales had been down 7.3%, and they were down almost 20% during the first week of September. However, over the last four weeks of September, our business improved somewhat, as comparable store sales were down 3.2%. During that four-week period, the impact of the month's second hurricane was largely offset by hurricane activity during the same period of last year.

"We are cautiously optimistic that the initiatives implemented in mid-September have started to take hold," Aggers added. "While we acknowledge that there is still market risk, we remain committed to taking the steps that we can control to improve the fall and holiday season."

Wal-Mart Exec VP/CFO Tom Schoewe said the company's efforts to help hurricane victims, including Wal-Mart employees, would decrease quarterly earnings by a penny, but remained confident that the previously announced earnings guidance of $0.55-$0.59 was valid.

Meanwhile, analysts at Stephens Inc upgraded Michaels from equal weight to overweight, but reduced their estimates for the company, Newratings.com reported. The target price is set to $45. In an accompanying research note, the company said a survey indicated Michaels same-store sales rose 1%-3%. (Michaels now releases official sales figures quarterly, not monthly.) The note said Michaels' sales should improve in October, Michaels should meet the low end of its third-quarter guidance range, and the current valuation is "attractive."

Big Lots' same-store sales rose 2.9%, but announced it was closing about 85 of its close-out merchandise stores and 41 furniture stores, and would take a write-off of about $28 million to mark down merchandise in an attempt to reduce inventory. The closings are in addition to the 40 stores to close this year. The company also announced it was suspending earnings guidance for the time being, just as Jo-Ann's has done.

Others. Costco, +11.0% ... Sam's Club, +9.8% ... Neiman Marcus, +9.6% ... Walgreen, + 7.7% ... CVS, +5.7% ... Target, +5.6% ... Nordstrom, +4.1% ... Wal-Mart (U.S.), +3.8% ... Saks, +3.2% ... Big Lots, +2.9% ... Dollar General, +2.5% ... Family Dollar, +2.6% ... Duckwall-Alco, +1.8 % ... J. C. Penney, +1.4% ... Federated Department Stores, +1.3% ... Rite Aid, +1.1% ... Kohl's, -0.2% ... Factory Card & Party Outlet, -0.4% ... Bombay, -1.6% ... Pamida Division (ShopKo), -3.9% ... Pier 1, -10.6%.

Jo-Ann's said that its September net sales increased 5.3% to $176.1 million and same-store sales rose 0.2%. For the first nine weeks of the third quarter, net sales increased 4.1% to $299.6 million, but same-store sales fell 0.9%. Year-to-date net sales have risen 3.8% to $1.104 billion, but same-store sales have decreased 0.2%.

CEO/President Alan Rosskamm said, "Relative to our earlier stated sales expectations, our sales performance for the first nine weeks of the second half has been a major disappointment. Despite merchandising changes in key areas of our business that we expected to drive favorable sales trends in the second half of the year, weak customer traffic has continued to impact our top-line performance."

The company also announced that David Bolen, Exec VP of Merchandising/Marketing, will be leaving but remains through the holiday season. A nationwide search for his replacement has been launched.

Rosskamm added, "Encouraged by a record fourth quarter last year, we approached this fiscal year with an ambitious merchandise plan, incremental marketing tests, construction of a third distribution center, and an accelerated superstore expansion program. Unfortunately, this aggressive plan collided with significant softness in customer traffic. As a result, key expenses such as distribution, advertising, store opening, and occupancy costs are up as a percentage of sales. More significantly, gross margins have been unfavorably affected by increases in customer coupon usage and additional merchandise clearance activity.

"Our current performance is unacceptable," Rosskamm added. "We are taking decisive action immediately in order to reverse recent trends and respond to a weakening retail environment. Our main objectives are to protect our balance sheet and to make changes necessary in order to improve sales and sell through inventory. An evaluation of all of our merchandise categories is underway and we will assess each business's performance aggressively. Similarly, we are reviewing the effectiveness of this years incremental marketing expenditures."

As a result, Jo-Ann's will slow its expansion plans, opening 25-30 stores next fiscal year compared to 44 new stores this year. The company also plans to focus on improving its gross margin rate and reducing expenses.

The company is also lowering its expectations for the quarter; it now predicts same-store sales will fall between a 2% drop and a 2% increase, and gross margins will decline from a year ago. Therefore Jo-Ann's will not reach its earlier annual earnings guidance of $1.65-$1.75/share.

Because of the uncertain factors in play during the next four months, Jo-Ann's has suspended its earnings/share guidance for the near-term.

Rosskamm concluded, "We are making the appropriate adjustments to respond to a softer retail environment and ensure we have the right merchandising strategies in place...."

I read a recent article in your newsletter, "What's Happening to Scrapbooking," with interest. I closed my scrapbook store this past spring after three years of being in business. I still owe a significant amount of debt from it, too. I miss it without a doubt, but I know that closing it was the right thing to do as my debt was on the rise.

My first and second years showed promise, but in the beginning of my third year a Jo-Ann's that was two miles away tripled their scrapbook section and began carrying everything I was carrying. I changed over to new product lines, but their 40-50% coupons and paper 5 for $1.00 lured my customers away.

My high ticket items began to gather dust. I had to sell them at cost just to unload them. I began to offer my own discounts and tried accepting competitor coupons, but they did not produce additional sales, just smaller margins.

Then Big Lots added scrapbook supplies, and a couple months later Target added a scrapbook aisle, then Office Depot. My customers would comment on how much they spent on QVC. I began to feel like a little fish in a pond full of sharks. I was.

That's why I failed. I did not have the capital to expand my product offering. I wanted to diversify and add several other crafts, but I was strapped for cash and didn't have the income statement needed to warrant a loan.

My going-out-of-business sale was fabulous. One e-mail and my store was flooded with customers to scoop up the initial 10% savings. Go figure. The term "Going out of Business" gave new meaning to a 10% savings, I guess. I graduated the discounts like most going-out-of-business sales do and closed my doors after 8 weeks of discounting. I sold every last item with the exception of a handful of stickers and some die cuts. But I'm still saddled with lots of personal debt.

I have thought long and hard how the Hallmark card stores do it. I mean, who doesn't sell greeting cards? And with so many people making their own, I just don't understand how Hallmark stays in business. I guess it's the unique gifts and collectibles they also carry. Those products are higher-ticket items. When my high-ticket items stopped moving, my sales went down substantially. Independents needs high-ticket items to boost their profits. Stickers, paper, and standard embellishments are simply not enough. I'd love it if some successful scrapbook storeowners would share their reasons for success so other independents can learn from them and keep their dream alive. – Name Withheld

(Note: Obviously we don't know everything about this situation – her rent, for example – but what could this ex-retailer have done? Perhaps existing retailers can learn from her experience and your suggestions. Email your thoughts to CLN at mike@clnonline.com.)

The research firm, MORH Access, surveyed 230 shopping mall customers to learn what were the most irritating responses by store sales clerks, the Associated Press reported. The winners are....

1. "That's not my department."
2. "If it's not on the rack, we don't have it."
3. "That's the policy."
4. "I'm on a break."
5. "Ask the person over there."
6. "I'm new here."
7. "You'll have to wait your turn."
8. "The computer is down."

1. A word of caution about the new Craftrends' research study on independent scrapbook stores: Every study I've ever seen has its own unique flaws in it, including studies I worked on as chair of the old HIA market research committee. No doubt the Creating Keepsake study has flaws, and I'm sure the upcoming studies from CHA and CNA will have them, too. It can't be helped; we don't live in a perfect world.

So should you pay attention to the research commissioned by trade magazines and associations? Yes, but take the specific numbers with a grain of salt. For example, consider the Craftrends figures merely as a baseline. But, if Craftrends commissions the study again, you can believe the trends (not the numbers) are real – IF the research is conducted exactly the same way. If the two studies have the same flaws, the flaws cancel each other. So if two years from now the new study shows the average store sales are up, say, 5%, I still wouldn't trust the actual dollar number, but I would definitely believe the 5%.

2. And a word of caution to vendors selling to Menards, Target, and all of the other "non-craft" chains: Those chains are not committed to our industry the way Michaels, Jo-Ann's, A.C. Moore, and Hancock are. When your line or the category begins to slip, they'll drop you in a heartbeat. Consider your sales to those chains as frosting on the cake, not the cake itself.

QUOTATION. Reacting to chain stores' claims that margins are hurt by consumers using their coupons: "Several manufacturers have said that independent scrapbook stores need to take A.C. Moore's, JoAnn's, and Michaels' coupons to keep the customers out of the chains – but if the coupons are part of the reasons cited for poor profitability for the 'big boys,' why in heaven's name should a boutique store take them?" – Lisa Kanak, The Cropper's Corner

ACQUISITION. ShopKo is up for sale. The Green Bay, WI-based retailer was about to accept an offer of $25.50 when Sun Capital Partners entered the bidding at $26.50. Sun Capital purchased Rag Shops in the past year. ShopKo operates 137 discount retail stores in 14 states and 219 Pamida stores in 16 states. The board of directors is to decide today.

PEOPLE. Michael Rouleau, CEO of Michaels, was re-elected to the board of directors of the Retail Industry Leaders Assn.

RESEARCH. According to a new study by the research firm Yankelovich, consumers see early holiday displays as "season treason," reported Promo Xtra magazine. The study said 36% of consumers say they don't enjoy shopping as much because of the pressure to buy.

SERVICE. Roby's Photo Shop and Scrapbook Store in Damascus, MD formed an association with a company that can transfer VHS, Super 8, or 8mm films to DVDs.

CLEVER PROMOTION. During Saturday night home games of the Portland (ME) Pirates minor league hockey team, the local A.C. Moore store will provide craft tables for fans to make Pirates signs and posters.

TV. Donna Dewberry made her debut on the Home Shopping Network on Friday. She sold DVDs, books, organizer, brush preserver/cleaner, paper paint/brush set, paint tool set, paint/brush sets, and a lettering kit ... What do you do after running a needlework shop? Jeanne Bice closed her shop and started Quacker Factory, which sells women's clothes on QVC. The New York Times estimates she sells 15,000 - 20,000 items a show and has annual profits of $43 million, reports All You magazine. (Jeanne is the cheery lady always wearing a headband.)

QUOTATION. "Knitting engages the mind and requires you to focus in such a way that you transcend the normal pressures of life." Knitting instructor Elanor Lynn (November issue of Country Living magazine.)

MAGAZINES. SoHo Publishing is introducing Knit Simple, a new quarterly magazine that will premier at the January TNNA show. Cover price, $5.99. For advertising info, call Doreen Connor (doreen@sohopublishing.com) at 212-937-2554 or Rose Ann Pollani (roseann@sohopublishingco.com) at 212-937-2557 ... Interweave Press ' new magazine, Knitscene, hits the newsstands and yarn shops tomorrow. Cover price is $7.99. Knitscene is primarily aimed at the newest knitting demographic, the 18-to-35 age group. This fall the magazine is also holding trunk shows at yarn shops in WI, CO, MI, PA, Washington, DC, OR, CT, CA, and VA. (According to the Craft Yarn Council of America's recent study, the 25-34 age group showed the highest percentage increase in participation – 150% – from 2002 to 2004.) A sneak preview of the issue, including free patterns, is available at www.knitscene.com.

PAPER. To see an absolutely amazing use of scrapbook paper – yes, as a floorcovering – visit www.scrapjazz.com/gallery/showphoto.php?photo=118987.

CHA. Tony Lee, the new Meetings/Expositions VP, has 27+ years experience in the trade show industry. On his staff are Shelley Fulghum, exhibit sales manager; Bella Volsky, trade show coordinator; Ann Kallman, operations manager; Carol Adair, operations coordinator; and Donna Cennimo, exhibits coordinator.

TRADE. The latest round of U.S.-China trade talks broke off without an agreement

to regulate China's booming textile shipments, Reuters reported. Sales of Chinese-made clothes to the U.S. have increased 75% since the end of global textile quotas on Jan. 1. "We have not come to an agreement that meets the needs of our domestic manufacturers and retailers," David Spooner, the special textile negotiator in the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, told Reuters.

HURRICANES. The Interweave Press auction of 15 pieces of handmade jewelry, art, clothing, and accessories featured in its magazines and books raised $4,000 to benefit relief and rehabilitation efforts for the victims of Hurricane Katrina. The online auction, which ran Sept. 16-26, was in affiliation with eBay's Giving Works charitable auction ... Lion Brand Yarn listed 27 charity poncho auctions on eBay last week. Each featured a handmade poncho worn by a member of the studio audience at the Sept. 13th taping of the new Martha! TV show.

BEADS. The new Bead & Art Glass Fest held recently in Orlando attracted almost 2,000 attendees. The Fest featured some trade-only hours, 50+ classes and a variety of social events. The Fest will return to Orlando in 2006 with dates and location TBA. Visit www.BeadandArtGlassFest.com for updates. For 2006 sponsorship opportunities and exhibit info, call Event Manager Michele Prang at 740-452-4541, ext. 3121, or email mprang@offinger.com.

ACQUISITION. Doug Kreinik bought out his brother, Andrew, and his sister-in-law, Jacqueline, and is now the sole owner of Kreinik Mgr. Co. Doug will close the Baltimore office in November and all customer service operations will be headquartered at the Parkersburg, WY manufacturing site. The new address is P.O. Box 1966, Parkersburg, WV 26102. Stores can call 800-624-1928 or 304-422-8900 to place orders. The fax is 304-428-4326 and the website is www.kreinik.com.

KNIT/CROCHET. The 2006 schedule for the Knit & Crochet shows sponsored by The Knitting Guild Assn. and the Crochet Guild of America: Apr. 20-23 in Oakland and July 13-16 in King of Prussia, PA. The shows are open to the public and feature classes, events, and shopping for supplies. Visit www.knitandcrochetshow.com for info.

SCD. The Society of Creative Designers annual Conference attracted 136 designers and 72 corporate members. Current President Elect Lisa Galvin will take over as President Jan.1. Elected were Vicki Schreiner, President Elect; Debra Quartermain, Secretary/Treasurer; and Directors Debba Haupert, Katie Hacker, and Delores Ruzicka, The 2006 Conference will be Sept. 27-29 in Portland. Visit www.creativedesigners.org or call 740-452-4541 for info.

KIDS. The current issue of TD Monthly, a trade publication for toys, has a report on the rousing success of kids craft kits. Visit www.toydirectory.com/monthly/article.asp?id=1480.

PAINTING. To celebrate Decorative Painting Month this month, the Society of Decorative Painters has new "Learn to Paint" projects, designed by Prudy Vannier, at www.decorativepainters.org. There will also be displays in local libraries, open houses at local shops, and stories in local media as part of the month-long celebration.

PAINT. Watch for a new acrylic paint, Interactive, to be released in January under Chroma’s Atelier label. It claims to be an advanced acrylic that does not form a skin as it dries. The patent-pending formula has allows it to dry differently than conventional acrylics, thereby allowing painters a longer "open" time. More is available at www.chromaonline.com/interactive or contact Dana Rollins at 800-257-8278 or drollins@chromaonline.com.

QUILTS. The Creative Iron, a division of StenSource Int., has teamed with quilt designers including Dilys Fronks, author of Enchanted Views (C&T publishing), and June Jaeger, pattern designer from Log Cabin Quiltworks, to create laser-cut, fusible appliquι silhouettes. The patterns/kits will be introduced at Quilt Market this month ... And look for a new line of Entaco needles, Mary Arden. Entaco is the last remaining English manufacturer of the hand needles and will be featured in the Colonial Needle booth.

CANCER. The National NeedleArts Assn.'s Stitch to WIN campaign is now aligned with Living Beyond Breast Cancer as its new partner. For more, visit www.lbbc.org.

HOBBIES. During the iHobby Expo Oct. 20-23 in Los Angeles, members of the Highland Park Society of Model Railroad Engineers will build a 4'x8' model railroad layout on the show floor, then donate it to the Boys & Girls Club of San Gabriel Valley.

To read the current job listings, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 15.79 ... Change**: -3.38
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 6.22 ... Change**: +0.21
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 15.31 ... Change**: -1.97
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 31.15 ... Change**: -1.86
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 45.04 ... Change**: +1.38
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 162.46 ... Change**: -.5.2%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 10,287.34 ... Change**: -2.7%

Emailed from a subscriber:

I recently picked a new primary care physician. After two visits and exhaustive lab tests, he said I was doing "fairly well" for my age. A little concerned about that comment, I couldn't resist asking him, "Do you think I'll live to be 80?"

He asked, "well, do you smoke tobacco or drink beer or wine?" "Oh no," I replied. "I've never done either."

Then he asked, "Do you eat rib-eye steaks and barbecued ribs?" I said, "No, I heard that all red meat is very unhealthy."

"Do you spend a lot of time in the sun, like playing golf, sailing, ballooning, motorcycling or rock climbing?" "No I don't," I said.

He said, "Do you gamble, drive fast cars, etc.?" "No, I've never done any of those things."

He looked at me and said, "Then why do you care if you live to be 80?"

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