Date: June 5, 2006
Vol. X, No. 11

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: We Are All Connected  

Two companies making a deal between themselves can cause a ripple effect that goes far beyond them. Two years ago, a major vendor took lots of orders from independents at the CHA winter show. Then the company received a huge chain order. The chain's order was filled first as the independents waited.... and waited. By the time the independents received their orders and paid for them, the CHA summer show was upon them. So the shop attendees didn't have much open-to-buy, which hurt some summer show exhibitors who had nothing to do with the original deal.

Now HDA is going to distribute books and magazines in Michaels; why should anyone else care? Consider: A) Some publishers might not agree with the new terms; now competitors of Michaels could sell books that are no longer carried by Michaels. B) Some publishers have considered raising their prices on future books so that selling them to Michaels through HDA would be more profitable. But those prices would be higher for everyone else, too. C). Other distributors might demand the same, allegedly better, terms HDA is receiving.

"Benny Da Buyer". The original newsbriefs that were emailed to subscribers since the previous issue – quarterly reports from Michaels and Jo-Ann's, the facts/rumors regarding Michaels book distribution deal with HDA, and Jo-Ann CEO responding to rumors of a takeover by investment companies.

Business-Wise. Why trends eventually cool. This specific instance is about yarn, but it could be scrapbooking or anything else, too.

Scene & Heard. News and trends from the NAMTA and New York Stationery shows, Quilt Market, and Bead Expo.

Does your company offer it? Who pays for what? Is it a serious issue for your company? To vote, visit click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

CLN subscribers did not think much of President Bush or Congress when we polled them last July. Now they think even less of them. More than half, 52.3% rate President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq as "Terrible" and 12.8% think he's done a "Poor" job. Last July those percentages were 43.9% and 10.6%. Only 4.7% think he's doing an "Outstanding" job, compared to 13.6% 11 months ago.

(Comment: To read reports on daily life in Iraq, visit Associated Press correspondent Robert Reid's blog at http://apnews.excite.com/article/20060529/D8HTNIC80.html.)

As for his handling of the economy, President Bush fared a little better, but not much, and not as well as last year. More than a third, 33.7% think he's doing a "Terrible" job and 24.4% judge his performance as "Poor." Last July the percentages were 30% and 24.2%. The percentage of voters in this unscientific poll who rate President Bush as doing an "Outstanding" job has fallen from 15.2% to 9.3%.

Congress' ratings have sunk with the President's; 16.5% say Congress is doing a "Terrible" job and 58% say Congress' performance is "Poor." In July the percentages were 30% and 40.9%.

Rick Lepley was named the CEO of A.C. Moore, replacing Jack Parker who is retiring as CEO and as a member of the board. Lepley, 56, will also serve on the board, filling a vacancy created by the untimely death of Eli Segal.

Lepley has an impressive, international resume. Earlier this year he had retired as Exec VP of North American Retail for Office Depot. Prior to that he was President of Office Depot Japan. Before Home Depot, he was Founder/President of Retail Investment Concepts, an independent retailer and Office Depot licensee for Eastern Europe. He opened the first Office Depot in Europe in 1995 and built a retail network and delivery business for Office Depot in Poland and Hungary. Previously, he was one of 11 execs who founded Mitsubishi Motors in 1982 and later served as Sr. VP of Sales/Marketing for Mitsubishi, responsible for 500+ dealerships in the U.S.

Jo-Ann's has launched The Christopher Lowell Collection, made possible through an exclusive partnership with Emmy-winning host, designer, and author Christopher Lowell. The new collection includes a myriad of pre-coordinated fabric and trim options and educational tools, such as instructional booklets and in-store classes. The collection was unveiled exclusively at all stores May 27 with in-store classes commencing in superstores in August.

The Collection includes eight groupings of fabrics – silks, poly silks, chenille, velvet, heavy jacquards, and embroidered sheers – and trimmings. Each grouping showcases 10 different fabrics for a total of 80 offerings. The Collection also includes 250+ trimmings and embellishments such as tassels, tiebacks, cording, fringe, and pillow appliques that complement the fabrics within the eight groupings. The fabrics will retail for $14.99 to $39.99/yard, the trims for $1.99 to $29.99/yard.

"Combined with my new fabric and trimmings line and coordinating education," Lowell said, "customers will be able to walk into Jo-Ann's with an idea and walk out with the tools and knowledge to make their design dreams a reality."

The collection was inspired by Lowell's book, Christopher Lowell: Seven Layers of Design. Beginning in August, superstores will offer classes via Jo-Ann Creative University to guide home decorators through Lowell's design philosophy. Additional fabrics, trims, and items such as DVDs, hardware, project books, and patterns, plus classes, will be available in August.

Apollo Management, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), and Texas Pacific Group have teamed up to explore a bid to acquire Michaels, Reuters reported. Another consortium considering a bid is Bain Capital, Carlyle Group, Blackstone Group, and Thomas H. Lee Partners.

It is not uncommon for investment companies to work together to make a major acquisition. Texas Pacific joined with Bain Capital and a Goldman Sachs Group affiliate to buy Burger King for $1.5 billion in 2002. The hamburger chain recently went public, selling about 19% of the shares for about $425 million. Bain, Carlyle, and Thomas H. Lee Partners joined forces to buy Dunkin' Brands in December.

These investment firms appear to be awash with cash. On May 11, Texas Pacific agreed to buy Smurfit-Stone Container's Consumer Packaging segment for approximately $1 billion. On May 18, the New York Post reported that Apollo, Bain Capital, and Texas Pacific bid on the travel services division of Cendant, a conglomerate that owns Orbitz, Avis, and Days Inn. Women's Wear Daily reported Bain Capital, Texas Pacific, and The Blackstone Group are leading bidders for Jones Apparel Group.

Some of these firms have previous connections to our industry. KKR is the major force behind Primedia, which currently has 11 industry-connected magazines for sale. Bain Capital once bought Tulip, the top fabric paint manufacturer at the time. It declined drastically and Bain later sold it to Duncan, who has revived it. In 2004 Apollo Management bought Borden Chemicals, which manufactures Elmer's Glue and once owned Illinois Bronze, a major acrylic paint line in the industry in the 1980s.

For the quarter ended Apr. 30, Wal-Mart's sales rose 12.3% to $79.613 billion, and income rose 6.3% to $2.615 billion ($0.63/share), two cents/share better than analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected. "The success of this quarter was the result of our focus on three goals: driving sales, reducing costs, and improving inventory management," said CEO Lee Scott. Sales in the U.S. stores rose 10.2% to $52.5 billion and same-store sales rose 3.8%.

However, CFO Tom Schoewe cautioned, "We continue to see higher gasoline and utility prices affecting our customers around the world and this could pressure our results as we move into the second quarter." He also listed higher interest rates, the costs to fund store remodeling projects, and more expensive employee benefits.

"Wal-Mart has a tremendous ripple effect across the entire economy," Adrianne Shapira, a retail analyst with Goldman Sachs told CNBC. "It's understandable that Wal-Mart might be seeing or feeling the pinch sooner than others, given the fact that their customer base is highly skewed toward the lower-end consumer."

Meanwhile, Target reported first quarter earnings of $554 million ($0.63/share), up 12.1%. Total revenues also increased 12.1% to $12.863 billion and same-store sales rose 5.1%.

Years ago Rita Weiss, then of ASN Publishing, said when the industry was young, the manufacturers had all the power. Then/now retailers hold it all. But eventually, Rita predicted, the consumers will hold all of the cards. Perhaps we're seeing evidence of that now. Consider:

1. Subversive Cross Stitch offers numerous kits and other designs that will probably never be sold in our traditional stores, yet owner Julie Jackson seems to be doing just fine, thank you, thanks to the Internet and Amazon.com.

2. The vast majority of bead manufacturers do not exhibit at our trade shows or advertise in our trade magazines. Instead, they exhibit at consumer shows such as the Bead&Button show in Milwaukee later this month. Last year's show attracted 16,000+ consumers.

3. It's taken years, but e-commerce is finally taking hold. Visit Alpine Import for an example – www.alpineimport.com. The latest addition is the Shawnee, KS-based ScrapbookMore.com, offering "discounted prices on favorite scrapbooking materials, flat rate shipping, free scrapbook layout ideas, and free scrapbooking help." In the works is Crafter Studio (www.crafterstudio.com) which will enable consumers to buy a project rather than visit a store to buy a book or a magazine.

4. Bond America, now a part of Caron, established a successful foothold in the industry via infomercials and QVC. THEN the company exhibited at our trade shows to sell to retailers.

5. Reminders of Faith, a vendor of religious-themed scrapbook supplies, has stopped using our trade shows and magazines in favor of the Christian bookstore market.

6. The cross-stitch publisher who vented in Category Reports was being boycotted by retailers for selling direct online. He politely told them to stick it, as he continued to sell online and expand into other categories.

Our industry isn't the only one affected. According to the National Retail Federation's online division, Shop.org, Internet sales will top $211 billion this year, up 20% from a year ago and nearly double the total just three years ago.

Following are the highlights from newsbriefs emailed to subscribers since the previous issue of CLN. To read the complete newsbriefs, click on "Benny Da Buyer" in the left-hand column.

May Sales. Jo-Ann's overall sales decreased 4.2% to $109.8 million and same-store sales dropped 7.6%. Hancock's May sales rose 5.4% and same-store sales increased 5.9%. Michaels and A.C. Moore do not report monthly sales. Wal-Mart's same-store sales in the U.S. rose only 2.0%. Target's same-store sales rose 5.7%.

Rumors. CLN contacted Jo-Ann's CEO after learning two investment companies, Reed Conner & Birdwell and Tennenbaum Capital Partners, had recently purchased millions of shares, although not a majority; CNBC announced that Jo-Ann's was up for sale; and StreetInsider reported analysts said JoAnn's has hired Lehman Bros. to look at strategic options.

Chair/CEO Alan Rosskamm told CLN: "Trading volume has been high with a number of new investors accumulating substantial positions. Public (13D) filings occurred in December and again this month, and in January we began working with a financial advisor to provide ongoing counsel during this period of volatility. ... We are ahead of schedule on our efforts to liquidate unproductive inventory, and expect to achieve significant debt reduction by year end."

Michaels. For the quarter ended Apr. 29, net income was $50.6 million ($0.38/diluted share), which met Wall Street estimates. A year ago, the company reported a loss of $35.9 million (-$0.26), which included the cumulative effect of accounting changes.

The Southeast, Southwest, and Pacific zones were the strongest; the top categories were General Crafts (primarily Jewelry and Beads), Custom Floral, Apparel Crafts, and Kids Crafts.

Margins improved but so did inventory shrinkage as a percent of sales. Average inventory/store, including distribution centers, dropped 9.7% to $821,000 due to an accelerated markdown program and the liquidation of some fashion yarn inventory.

Jo-Ann's. Reported a first-quarter net loss of $6.6 million ($0.28/diluted share). A year ago the company reported a net income of $4.2 million ($0.18). Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected a per-share loss of 33 cents. The cumulative effect of an accounting change increased earnings by $1.0 million ($0.04).

Sales increased 1.0% to $424.7 million but same-store sales decreased 3.9%. The effort to sell excess and discontinued inventory hurt gross margins. Chair/CEO Alan Rosskamm said he expected the second quarter to be tough, but predicted improvement in the second half of the year as excess merchandise is sold and replaced with fresh inventory. In a conference call with analysts, execs said the company was part of the "severest industry downturn in some time," and cited declining yarn and fleece sales a reason.

HDA/Michaels. Home Design Alternatives is taking over the distribution of books and magazines in Michaels stores. Some magazines will be merchandised in checkout racks, and books and magazines will be displayed in a new island fixture which will sit in the main drive aisle in most stores. Michaels is NOT de-emphasizing leaflets nor moving all print media to one "library." However, if Michaels decides to reduce the size of a particular department, the number of adjacent supporting books will be reduced accordingly ... Some publishers remain concerned about the terms HDA is insisting upon and the question of the books currently in stores.

TRADE SHOW NEWS

TNNA. The Indianapolis show next weekend will have 77 new exhibitors for a record total of 430+ vendors in 960 booths, a 9% increase over last year. More than 35% of the 110+ classes are already sold out. Business expert Christine Corelli, author of Wake Up and Smell the Competition, and The ART of Influencing Customers to BUY from YOU, is the keynote speaker. Visit www.tnna.org for show info. During the show TNNA will host a group of Indianapolis-area middle school students who are working on reproductions of cross-stitch samplers from an old orphanage in England.

CHA SHOW. Highlights of the show include Beading and Needle Arts Pavilions; workshops, business seminars, and the new Industry Roundtable forum; keynote speaker Jason Jennings; and the "Chicago – My Kind of Town" entertainment spectacular ... CHA is offering a wide variety of opportunities for exhibitors to expose attendees to their products outside their booths – before and during the show. Email Semo Sennas at ssennas@craftandhobby.org or call 201-794-133 x218 for details ... Designer and Manufacturer section meetings are also scheduled ... The deadline to register to display in the Designer Showcase is June 15, and to reserve space in the Innovations Showcase is June 20. Visit www.chashow.org.

BEADS. CLN is hearing of more and more industry people planning to attend the Bead & Button show in Milwaukee June 16-18. It's a consumer show but could be a great place to find new vendors. Visit www.beadandbuttonshow.com.

EMAIL: A FRUSTRATED SALES REP

You know, I hear complaints day in and day out from my customers re: manufacturers selling to the chains, QVC, Wal-Mart, Big Lots, etc. As a manufacturer's rep, I try to act as a liaison between the manufacturer and independent retailer. I continually try to help our stores see the "Big Picture." Boycotting a manufacturer because their product is in the chains hurts no one but the small retailer. There's a reason chains carry the products they do – they are top sellers. I try to "spin" it positively for the retailer, and can usually sell in the desired product even if it's in the chains. And it does sell, which proves our point.

But sometimes, enough is just enough! I just bought an album at A.C. Moore for $5.00 retail. It is the very same album I'm selling to my customers for a wholesale of $11.00. The product is just a year old, and is in the current catalog. To me, this is just wrong, and I feel as if I'm culpable in something underhanded, and I resent it. "Dumping" discontinued or old product is bad enough, but this is over the line and unjustifiable. This manufacturer, in particular, is working to kill the independent retailers! WHY? – Name Withheld

(Note: There are two possibilities here: A.C. Moore might be using the item as a loss leader or the manufacturer is simply giving lip service to his/her support of independents.)

I just spent an inordinate amount of time reading all the back stories in CLN's Memory, Paper & Stamps section. Just a note to tell you that in Australia it is all just coming alive. Until recently there were no scrappers and stampers, and now many magazines are being developed as well as home businesses and small shops. So perhaps the answers to [vendors'] lagging sales in the U.S. is to look outside the U.S. There are customers in Indonesia, South Africa, Scotland, Holland, Canada, and more. – Ruth Treadwell, Ruth's Jewish Rubber Stamps

(Comment: The industry would be much better off if vendors sold their overstocks and closeouts overseas, where the products are new to consumers, rather than dumping them at U.S. consumer shows or to deep discounters.)

1. If you thought politics made strange bedfellows before, consider this: Charles and Sam Wyly, Chair and Vice Chair of the Michaels board, co-hosted a fundraiser recently for Senator John McCain, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination for President. Just over six years ago, when McCain defeated George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary, the Wylys poured millions into an anti-McCain tv ad blitz in South Carolina. Bush won that primary and went on to become President.

At the time, McCain said "They should be ashamed. Tell 'em to keep their dirty money in the state of Texas." He called them "Wyly coyotes" and Bush's "sleazy Texas buddies."

2. To see some absolutely remarkable, hilarious glass beads, visit Sharon Peters' site, www.smartassglass.com.

3. Congrats to novelist/needlework designer Lois Winston. Her first novel, Talk Gertie To Me, is a great, funny read. And an addendum includes instructions for "paper napkin decoupage" that recommends Plaid's Modge Podge. To read an excerpt, click on Kate's Collage in the left-hand column. Lois next novel – Love, Lies & a Mocha Latte is the working title – will be published in June, 2007. For more, visit www.loiswinston.com.

GARDEN RIDGE. Apparently the chain is dropping crafts. The head craft buyer, Betty Suran has resigned. One source tells CLN his reps have confirmed the change and "management opinion seems to be to 'let Michaels have that business' and G.R. will be doing more home decor which is what they believe to be their forte." Emails to GR were not returned.

INVESTORS. Wells Fargo & Co. recently purchased a substantial number of shares of Hancock.

HOBBY LOBBY. Steve Barnett has replaced Steve Stringer as Merchandise Manager for Soft Lines (needlework, fabric, sewing notions, home dec fabric). Randy Green has taken over as Merchandise Manager for Scrapbooking. New Merchandising Managers added recently are Bill Davis (crafts) and Tommy Hartis (art, hobbies, jewelrymaking).

STORES. Wal-Mart will slow its strategy of opening new stores near older ones, CNNMoney.com reported. "In the past, cannibalization was self-inflicted," said Vice Chair John Menzer. "So if we served a market that had a three-store potential and we already had two well-performing stores, we would still open the third store. Now we're waiting on the third store."

STORES. CLN has reported on Wal-Mart "tests" in Plano, TX and Evergreen Park, IL in which the size and sometimes the location of the craft/fabric department are markedly different than traditional stores. In his speech at the annual stockholders meeting, CEO Lee Scott said sales/sq. ft. at the Evergreen Park store are 25% above sales at other stores in the area, and at the Plano supercenter, gross profit/linear foot is 24% higher than the average store.

ACQUISITION. Ellison has acquired sole ownership of the Sizzix brand, but Ellison and Provo Craft will continue to distribute the products through Sept., 2007. Then all manufacturing and distribution will be through Ellison ... Kandi Corp. purchased Ruth's Jewish Stamps; former owner Ruth Treadwell will stay actively involved as the creative force and designer.

PEOPLE. A.C. Moore CFO Leslie Gordon is retiring effective July 31. A national search for his replacement has already begun ... Sun Capital Partners named a new Chair/CEO to lead its recent acquisition, ShopKo. Interim CEO Paul White remains as President/CMO.

KIDS. Mega Bloks will ask shareholders to change the name to Mega Brands Inc. and says it is still considering counter-suing the founders of Rose Art following their lawsuit against Mega for $50 million. The argument centers on the potential financial fallout from Rose Art's Magnetix building sets. Five product liability lawsuits have been filed against it over Magnetix, the (Canadian) National Post reported.

RETIRING. Our very best wishes to Joe Kimm, who has retired from Tsukineko LLC, a division of Tsukineko Japan. The new owner and General Manager is Jeff Owen. Call 800-769-6633 or email jowen@tsukineko.com.

BASEBALL! TNNA has expanded the StitchNPitch promotion started last year with the Seattle Mariners. This summer nine major league teams will hold special nights when stitchers bring their needlework to the game and cheer – and stitch. Visit www.stitchnpitch.com.

DOLLAR TREE. Net earnings/diluted share rose 19.2% to $0.31 for the quarter ended Apr. 29. Sales rose 14.3% to $856.5 million; same-store sales rose 4.0%. "Increased traffic and continued growth of our average ticket produced comp-store sales and earnings at the high end of our guidance," said President/CEO Bob Sasser, a former Michaels exec.

PRAYER SHAWLS. "I have to agree with Kathy Peterson; prayer shawl groups are growing. Tapping into the spiritual/meditative side of crafts, and knowing that what you are making will be helpful to someone else, is invaluable. I don't know if prayer shawl groups buy much product. Most people I know who make them will use odds and ends or sale yarns – but that might be good for all the stores who have excess yarns to move." – Elaine Schmidt, Elaine Schmidt Designs

TV. Shop at Home, the retail channel that broadcasts a number of industry-related shows and products to 55 million households, will shut down at the end of June, the Cincinnati Enquirer reported. The Internet site, www.shopathometv.com will also cease. The problem: a failure to get widespread cable distribution. The network broadcasts "Let's Get Crafting with Carol Duvall" and various scrapbook shows.

TV. Last Tuesday NBC'S The Today Show featured "Granny chic" as the latest hot trend. "Personalized crafts, like knitting, crochet, needlepoint and quilting, are popular again." ... The Oxygen network recently broadcast specials on knitting and jewelrymaking. To learn more and see videos of the shows, visit www.oxygen.com/Specials/CraftyGirls.

AWARDS. For the third consecutive year, Craftrends has earned a West Regional Award in the Annual Awards Competition sponsored by the American Society of Business Publication Editors (ASBPE). This year's award in the Regular Column, Contributed category for Rich Kizer's and Georganne Bender's "Georganne & Rich on the Road" column. Kizer and Bender won the Gold award in the same category in 2004 and last year, Craftrends' editorial director Bill Gardner won the Gold regional award in the Regular Column, Staff Written category.

MAGAZINE. Coats & Clark and SoHo Publishing have launched Crochet Today, a bi-monthly magazine. It will be on newsstands in August. For subscription info visit www.coatsandclark.com.

YARN. CLN has reported periodically on the wonderful Rwanda Knitting Project launched by Caron's Cari Clement which helps Rwandan women, often widowed and penniless due to genocide and AIDS, become self sufficient. To learn more, visit Cari's blog at www.fiberandcraft.org/rwanda_blog.html.

PBS. Series produced by KS, Inc. continue to roll along. The seventh America Quilts Creatively series, hosted by Sue Hausmann, uplinks July 2. Visit www.americaquiltscreatively.com) and the ninth series of Scrapbook Memories, hosted by Julie McGuffee and Both Madland, uplinks July 16. Visit www.scrapbookmemoriestv.com.

AWARDS. Getting Started Making Wire Jewelry and More, by Linda Chandler and Christine Ritchey and published by Interweave Press, won the top award in the Crafts/Hobby/How-to category at the Benjamin Franklin Awards by Publishers Marketing Assn.

BOOKS. To see the new books Design Originals introduced at Quilt Market, visit www.d-originals.com/pressrelease/quiltmarket06/designoriginals.html ... Aleene's daughters, Heidi Borchers, Candace Liccione, and Tiffany Windsor, have a new book, Handmade Paper Jewelry (ISBN-13: 978-1-4027-2213-4), published by Sterling Publishing.

PEOPLE. SoHo named Madelyn Albert Roberts as Publisher of its magazine division. Roberts was the publisher who launched Mode magazine and had been publisher of McCall's ... Interweave Press named Tricia Waddell Editorial Director of the Book Publishing Group. She had been F+W Publications' Editorial Director for the Craft, Home, and Lifestyle Books.

LEGAL. ABRY Partners and Providence Equity Partners reached a resolution to the dispute regarding F+W Publications, publisher of CNA, Memory Makers, and other industry-related other magazines and books. F+W Chair/CEO David Seward said, "We have entered into a confidential settlement agreement that ends the pending litigation between us and which we believe is a win-win resolution in the best interests of both firms and our limited partners."

SCRAPBOOKS. The National Scrapbooking Assn. has been referenced or quoted in recent issues of Child Magazine, The Missoulian, and The New York Times. Visit www.nsa.gs.

To see the latest job listings from The Creative Network, the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

A. C. Moore (ACMR). Last*: 18.07 ... Change**: +0.66
Hancock Fabrics (HKF). Last*: 3.47 ... Change**: +0.24
Jo-Ann Stores (JAS). Last*: 16.44 ... Change**: +1.49
Michaels (MIK). Last*: 38.95 ... Change**: +0.55
Wal-Mart (WMT). Last*: 47.83 ... Change**: -+1.29
CLN Retail Index. Last*: 124.76 ... Change**: +3.5%
Dow Jones Index. Last*: 11,247.87 ... Change**: -1.1%

1. Your houseplants are alive, and you can't smoke any of them.
2. Having sex in a twin bed is out of the question.
3. You keep more food than beer in the fridge.
4. You hear your favorite song in an elevator.
5. Jeans and a sweater no longer qualify as "dressed up."
6. You call the police because the kids next door won't turn down the stereo.
7. You feed your dog Science Diet instead of McDonald's leftovers.
8. Dinner and a movie is the entire date instead of the beginning of one.
9. A $4.00 bottle of wine is no longer "pretty good stuff."
10. 90% of the time you spend in front of a computer is for real work.

Bonus : You read this entire list looking desperately for one sign that doesn't apply to you and can't find one!

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4. Creative Leisure News is published the first and third Mondays of each month.  Your next issue will be Monday, June 19.

xxx

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