Date: July 2, 2007
Vol. XI, No. 13

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: A DECADE OF CHANGES 

Time to put your thinking cap on: CLN is celebrating its 10th anniversary this summer, and I'm slowly going through past issues to develop a list of the most important people, product categories, design trends, companies, society and business trends, etc., that have had the most influence on our industry in the past decade.

Think back: The President was Clinton. There was a surplus in the federal budget. Monica Lewinsky attracted far more coverage than Saddam Hussein, and 9/11 and a war lasting longer than World War II were unimaginable. There was no CHA or SMART Group, but we had HIA, ACCI, the Int. Needlework Guild, the Society of Craft Designers, and Michaels Village Crafts stores. Scrapbooking was flying high, enticing hundreds (thousands?) to open shops, and knitting was something only grandmothers did. The big retailers were Michael Rouleau, Alan Rosskamm, Jack Parker, and Larry Kirk – and MJ Designs, Frank's Nursery, and Rag Shops. Investment firms interested in buying industry companies were almost unknown.

So I need help! What do YOU think were major influences of the decade? Email me at mike@clnonline.com. I'll compile the list and publish it in a future issue.

A new study by BIGresearch (see below) revealed that 32.3% of women respondents plan to decrease their spending over the next three months – although many consumers end up spending more than they planned. How will the industry fare this summer/? How about your business? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

CLN subscribers aren't so sure. Only 9.8% thought Martha Stewart's craft line in Michaels was good value for the consumer; 68.58% thought it was not. The remaining 21.7% were not sure.

Value or not, 30.1% thought the line would be successful because it would attract new consumers to scrapbooking and paper crafts. Almost half, 48.4%, predicted it would not entice new customers to the category, and 21.5% were not sure.

Only 15.9% thought the line would appeal to existing scrapbookers and paper crafters. More than two-thirds of the voters in CLN's unscientific poll, 68.2%, did not think it will attract existing customers, and 15.9% were unsure.

Note: Trade magazine Art Materials Retailer operates a poll similar to CLN's. Its latest question: "Are you planning to attend the CHA show in Rosemont, IL in July?" "Yes," answered 58.8% of the respondents; 29.4% said "No"; 5.9% said they weren't sure; and 5.9% said they needed more information.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to make it easier for manufacturers to demand that retailers sell goods at minimum prices, overruling a 1911 antitrust ban on formal pricing agreements.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Justice Kennedy said the ruling will require courts "to do a case-by-case analysis on whether manufacturers demanding minimum prices for their goods are violating federal antitrust laws."

Justice Breyer dissented, saying the ruling will result in increased prices for consumers.

The case in question regarded a designer handbag manufacturer, Brighton/Leegin, and a boutique, Kay's Kloset in Lewisville, TX. The retailer signed an agreement not to sell the purses below a certain price. It did anyway, and the company stopped shipping/selling the bags to the retailer. The retailer sued and won a $3.6 million verdict, which was upheld by an appeals court.

The decision "put a thumb on the scale in favor of those manufacturers who would like to set resale prices," Mallory Duncan, Counsel for the National Retail Federation, told the Associated Press. "It doesn't guarantee them the right to do it, but it gives them a little more ammunition."

What will it mean for the craft industry? The Journal predicted it will have little effect on discount stores and major retailers because they hold so much power over manufacturers. "Instead, the case could make it harder for smaller boutiques that offer specialty or custom-fitted goods to lower prices without consent of a manufacturer." However, the NRF's Duncan disagreed, saying discounters may be disadvantaged slightly while full-price and specialty retailers may benefit. In other words, it will take more lawyers and lawsuits to settle the issue.

1. The SMART Group is sponsoring a "Vendor Showcase" on Thurs., July 19 from 2-9:00 pm at the Fountain Blue Banquet Center in Des Plaines, IL. The date/time conflicts with 11 workshops, four seminars, and three special events that are part of the CHA Summer Show.

2. The deal is complete: The 2008 MemoryTrends show will "co-locate" with the Photo Marketing Assn. show Jan. 31-Feb. 2 in Las Vegas. "Partnering MemoryTrends with PMA is a very exciting initiative that will allow scrapbooking/paper crafting manufacturers and retailers the opportunity to take memory preservation to the next level," says CKMedia CEO Dave O’Neil. The show is less than two weeks before the CHA Winter Show in Anaheim.

Global Credit Services explained why Michaels first-quarter bottom line was so drastically below the first quarter a year ago. Due to the acquisition by Bain Capital and The Blackstone Group, Michaels now has more than $4.2 billion in debt and notes to service. So interest expense soared from $172,000 to $95+ million. In addition, Michaels has to pay $13 million annually in management fees to Bain, Blackstone, and Highfields Capital Management.

Michaels' quarterly sales were basically flat, but margins increased, so the bottom line's transition from black to red was caused by interest expense and management fees, not a steep decline in consumer interest.

"... we have serious concerns about Michaels ability to cover its debt service going forward," Global said in a note to clients.

Last week two stock-rating services upgraded Jo-Ann's. Matrix USA upgraded Jo-Ann's from Strong Sell to Sell, reported StreetInsider.com. "As Wal-Mart and other competitors continue to back out of fabric sales, JAS is benefitting from increasing market share, store traffic, and same store sales. Although valuation is improving as JAS shares retreat from take-over speculation highs, we believe JAS remains expensive on a risk-adjusted basis."

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its debt ratings outlook on Jo-Ann's to Stable from Negative. "The change in outlook reflects the company's improved operating performance and debt reduction, primarily as a result of the new management team's increased focus on merchandising and inventory management," said S&P's Credit Analyst Charles Pinson-Rose.

Speaking at the Wachovia Securities 2007 Nantucket Equity Conference, Jo-Ann's CFO James Kerr said the company will reduce new store openings this year, down to six from 26 a year ago, because results are not meeting expectations, Forbes reported. Cleaning up stores, removing clutter, and creating more compelling newspaper ads are expected to boost sales.

HANCOCK UPDATE

1. Hancock reported a 5.7 million monthly loss for the month ended June 2. The company previously reported a $3 million profit in a previous filing for the period March 21 to May 5.

2. The company filed notice in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware that it would abandon property owned by the company in 71 stores across the U.S. A court order allowed the retailer to leave the property without liability to the landlords as long as it gave five days notice.

3. Hancock also secured a $17.5 million loan with Ableco Finance, a limited liability company acting as an agent for Hancock's lenders. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Hancock said it will use the money for general working capital purposes and to pay fees and expenses related to the loan agreement. The interest rate is prime plus 2%. At the time of the agreement, the prime rate was 8.25% percent.

4. Sopris Capital Advisors continues to buy Hancock shares, now owning up to 15+% of the total shares. Hilliard Lyons financial adviser Chris Cole explained to the [Northeast Mississippi] Daily Journal that "vulture" investors make their money when they find a distressed company with long-term potential for a turnaround.

5. Hancock hired Burr, Pilger & Mayer to provide accounting oversight for the company, replacing PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Hotels. Bookings are up 10.8% and because a number of hotels have sold out, or are close to selling out, CHA has added new blocks of rooms at the Wyndham O'Hare and the Renaissance Suites Chicago O'Hare. To reserve rooms, call Par Avion, CHA's official travel provider, at 800-826-8241or email www.paravion.com.

Booths. Space is very limited. Call Nadine Schwartz at 800-822-0494, ext.220 or email nschwartz@craftandhobby.org. More than 460 exhibitors have already reserved space.

Special Events. The keynote speaker is Genevieve Gorder, designer from the trendy tv series, Trading Spaces and Town Haul on TLC ... "The Summer of Love" Show with BeatleMania Live.

Seminars. There's a variety of seminars on how to profit from digital scrapbooking – strategies for capturing an untapped market (the digital millennials, etc.); in-store kiosks; printing services; etc. ... The Marketing Roundtable with Valarie Willis of tometers!company on how a store can set itself apart and create compelling customer experiences. (Comment: I attended Valarie's presentation at the Winter Show and it was excellent. – Mike Hartnett)

Designers. A special seminar, "How to Work with Designers in the Craft and Hobby Industry," (Sun. July 22, 7-8:30 am) is exclusively for manufacturers, editors, publishers, and press. $15 for CHA members, and it includes breakfast). Then the Designer Showcase (8:30 - 11:00 am) is a series of tabletop displays with original designs that represent each designer's style and licensed property.

Visit www.chashow.org for registration, show info, seminar, workshop, and event tickets.

Jo-Ann's is offering summer programs for kids – Kid’s Camp!® and Make It A Party™. Kid’s Camp!, designed for kids up to age 14, includes classes in sewing, crocheting, jewelry-making, quilting, knitting, and Wilton® cupcake decorating. Activities range from one to three sessions long and can last up to three hours each session; the cost is $15.00- $45.00.

Make It A Party includes a Jo-Ann's party coordinator to plan parties with activities with themes such as pirates, a princess, sports, a Wilton® Cupcake Party, a Build-A-Bear Workshop® or Bear Works Party™ .

Jo-Ann's superstores held a preview June 23rd with free demos and crafts, and a 20% discount on Kid’s Camp! project supplies.

1. U.S.-Chinese relations are dicey. The Commerce Department is imposing sanctions against some Chinese paper imports, reversing 23 years of U.S. trade policy; now Congress is considering legislation that could make Chinese products more expensive. Some in Congress claim China keeps its currency artificially low, giving its manufacturers an unfair advantage.

But China may react the way it did recently to food and product recalls. The media has been filled with news of recalls of Chinese pet food, toothpaste, and other items such as toys and now fish. Now China is blocking imports of U.S. raisins, saying they don't meet Chinese health standards.

2. Ethanol is supposed to be the solution to high gas prices. So far the only result is higher prices for food. Meanwhile the Financial Times reported, "Abdalla El-Badri, secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the powerful cartel was considering cutting its investment in new oil production in response to moves by the developed world to use more biofuels." The result could mean higher gasoline prices.

Are retailers their own worst enemy? Take books, for example. If there is one guaranteed best seller this summer it's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, the final book in the series. But The Sacramento Bee reports "... few retailers will profit from its sales. Independent retailers feel undermined by mass marketers such as Wal-Mart and Target, which use popular titles as loss leaders, and by Amazon.com's consistent price cutting."

Amazon.com and Wal-Mart will sell Harry almost 50% off its suggested retail price of $34.99. Barnes & Noble's and Borders' price is 40% off.

"Everywhere you go there is huge, ridiculous discounting by the chains," Graham Marks, Children's Editor of Publishing News, told Reuters. "They are literally not going to make one penny out of the book. It is stupid – just throwing money away ... The world has gone mad."

"A lot of independent bookstores won't be selling Potter," Caroline Horn, Children's Editor at Bookseller, told Reuters. "They say it would be cheaper to buy it from a supermarket than the publisher."

Another example: Flat panel tv's have been one of the hottest sellers in electronic stores. So has that meant bigger profits for retailers? No. "Furious price-cutting has, during the past four months, compelled Circuit City to replace 3,400 sales clerks with lower-paid hires, pushed Tweeter Home Entertainment into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and forced CompUSA to close more than half its stores nationwide," reported the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "Not since prices for personal computers plunged in the early 1990s have so many retailers been hurt by a single product cycle, analysts say."

Industry-related stocks were relatively flat in the second quarter. The CLN Index rose only 0.6%, while the Dow rose 8.5%, the S&P 500 increased 5.8%, and the NASDAQ rose 7.5%.

Jo-Ann's rose 4.3%, due in part to speculation that the company would be taken private by an investment firm. As reported in CLN, TheDeal.com claimed Jo-Ann's had hired Lehman Brothers to receive bids from investment firms through June, but no announcement had been made by CLN's deadline for this issue.

A.C. Moore declined 8.1% in the second quarter and Wal-Mart rose 2.5%. Hancock filed for bankruptcy shortly after the first quarter and its stock stopped trading on the "big board" of the NY Stock Exchange. Once again Target outperformed Wal-Mart, increasing 7.3%. If Martha Stewart's craft line is a big success, it hasn't been reflected in the price of her company's stock; it rose only 1.1%. Meredith, a publisher of various industry-related magazines, rose 7.3%.

The Blackstone Group, the first U.S. private equity firm to go public and a major owner of Michaels, saw its initial public offering of stock start at $31/share, and immediately increase 13% the first day of trading. Since then the stock has dropped below $31, due in part to concern regarding legislation being considered by the Senate Finance Committee that would increase taxes on firms such as Blackstone.

The only "insider trading" in the second quarter by a top exec of an industry-related retailer was John Menzer, Wal-Mart Vice Chair and former CEO of the old Ben Franklin operation. He cashed in options for 59,645 shares of Wal-Mart stock for $2,859,662.75.

Stock prices for the first six months of the year: A.C. Moore, -9.5% ... Jo-Ann's, +16.5% ... Wal-Mart, +4.2% ... Target, +11.5% ... Martha Stewart Omnimedia, -21.5% ... Dow, +7.6% ... CLN Index, +1.4% ... S&P 500, +6.0% ... NASDAQ, +7.8%.

Exhibitors, are you unveiling new products at the CHA Summer Show? Have details on your website? If so, send CLN a short description, booth number, and URL and we'll include it in our next issue, online just days before the show starts, to give buyers an opportunity to check new lines before the show itself.

For example, Lucidiom (booth 2816) is offering Luci Connect, a new print program that lets scrapbookers upload 12"x12" pages online from their home desktops or from a laptop in their scrapbook store in order to print their designs. Visit www.lucidiom.com.

Email your product info to CLN at mike@clnonline.com.

Broadband users are spending 48% (approximately one hour and 40 minutes) of their spare time online in a typical weekday, and the trend is increasing across all age groups, finds a new report by research firm Media-Screen. (The full press release is available at: www.media-screen.com/press050707.html.)

No wonder people are crafting less – they're spending half of their free time online. And according to CHA research, 71% of crafters never look for craft ideas/techniques online and 79% never shop for crafts online. So all that online time is for other markets (the press release cites entertainment and communication as the activities). I'm sure most people don't intend to spend half of their free time online, but we all know it is easy to lose track of time when catching up on email, news, surfing the web, etc.

This is not a positive trend and it has the potential to have even more impact on our market as time goes on – unless our industry finds a way to do something about it soon. – Name Withheld, Product Manager, Major Craft Vendor

(Comment: Is the Internet hurting industry sales by stealing away consumers' free time? If so, what can we do about it? Send your thoughts to CLN at mike@clnonline.com.)

READERS REACT TO CEO $$$, UNINFORMED RETAILERS

1. Regarding retailer Bud Izen's article, "The Keys to Success – and Failure" (available in "Benny Da Buyer"): Will you please tell the Izens that they are the smartest people on the earth?! They are EXACTLY what I have been beating the drum about for the past five years. The love of scrapping does NOT qualify you to run a retail scrapbook store anymore than the love of food qualifies you to run a restaurant. It takes SKILLS to run a store or else the store will run you - right into the ground. Kudos to them and their success!

It fits in nicely with my "don't open a store just because you WANT to" mantra. I continue to get people who email me about opening a store. Many of them have found THE spot and want to sign a lease but have no clue how to do anything else. I CRINGE for them. – Kim Guymon, ScrapBiz, www.scrapbiz.com

2. Regarding the Commentary on Blackstone Group CEO Steven Schwarzman in the 6/18 edition (available in CLN Archives in the right-hand column): "Thank you for writing this commentary." – Industry Manufacturer ... "Mike, kudos to you for expressing your comments re the outlandish outlay of monies to the Blackstone exec!!!! And even more and larger kudos to Barbara for her efforts on the part of the poor! Perhaps Michaels will make a generous donation to her cause? ( I say that tongue in cheek.) Sad state of affairs today." – Industry Importer

3. Regarding the "new" craft consumer: "The new consumer seems to be cobbling together all types of mediums to create something unique – something that deviates from our industry's patterns/instructions but uses them for inspiration. This is something that’s very tough for our industry to get its arms around. I’m constantly trying to figure out how to cater to this new customer myself, let alone how the retailers are coping. Our "commodity" industry is being turned on its head by the new consumer, and it’s our job, if we are to survive, let alone thrive, to figure it out – and soon." – Major Industry Manufacturer

4. Regarding the state of yarn sales: "The interest in hand knitting yarns is still strong. It is true that chain stores over-stocked some of the novelty yarns but they have been moving their inventory down over the past year. Going into the season there is interest in natural blends and wool yarns for felting projects. Also chain store buyers are buying "classic yarns with a twist". By that I mean classic yarns with color shading, self patterning, and self striping. We are looking forward to a good season. – Hal Ozbelli, Premier Yarns

1. The discussion about where scrapbooking belongs – crafts or photography – has an added dimension, as discussed on a Two Peas message board recently. Some scrapbooks are, in effect, visual books. If graphic novels can become part of the book industry, is it possible that scrapbooks could, too? Then of course there's stationery. Maybe we should just shut down our businesses and attend trade shows.

2. It's fascinating how creativity takes different forms and can inspire career changes. Lois Winston was one of the most published needlework designers in the industry, then branched into writing novels. She was the subject of a recent lengthy profile in the Star Ledger, New Jersey's largest circulation newspaper. She told the reporter, "I was at a conference of the Society of Craft Designers (now the Craft & Hobby Association), and I dreamed a chapter every night, a romantic story that just started unfolding."

I attended many of those SCD conferences, most of which included seminars on inspiring creativity. Lois' second novel, Love, Lies and a Double Shot of Deception (ISBN: 0-505-52719-7), is now available in bookstores. Visit www.loiswinston.com and to read the Star Ledger article, visit www.nj.com/starledger and type "Lois Winston" in the search engine.

3. Received an update from Maryann Corey of The Portable Playhouse. The program involves hospital-certified volunteers who visit hospitals and teach sick kids to make beaded jewelry. The program has now expanded to GA, NC, SC, OR, CA, WA, and PA. To learn more, click on Kate's Collage in the left-hand column, then scroll down the right-hand column to "Beading Smiles"; and visit www.theportableplayhouse.org.

BEADS. One of the industry's top jewelry designers/teachers, Katie Hacker, has updated her website and blog. Visit www.katiehacker.com and www.katiehacker.blogspot.com ... About 14,000 people, including consumers from 26 countries attended the Bead&Button show in Milwaukee last month. Want to teach a workshop or general education class at the 2008 show (June 1-8)? The deadline for submissions is July 15. For an application, visit www.beadandbuttonshow.com/bnbshow/default.aspx?c=a&id=53

SEWING. The South Bend (IN) Tribune reported that Simplicity Pattern may close a local plant which employs 130 people and has been in operation since 1931 ... Hancock has cancelled its sponsorship of its Cutting Edge magazine while it restructures during bankruptcy.

HOBBIES. There are fewer than 75 booths left for the 2007 iHOBBY EXPO™ Oct. 18-21 in Rosemont, IL. A complete sellout is expected, says Exec Director Pat Koziol. 560 booths have already been sold to 225 exhibitors, 50 of whom are new to the show. The consumer days are expected to attract 18,000 - 20,000. Visit www.ihobbyexpo.com or call 973-283-9088.

QUILTS. Here's a unique service: The Campus Quilt Company will turn your old t-shirts into quilts. Visit www.campusquilt.com.

PAPER. On Sat, June 23, A.C. Moore stores sponsored a "paper crafting" day with demos and make-it/take-its.

KNITTING. Interweave Press launched KnittingDaily.com, an online knitting community; library of free knitting, felting, and crochet patterns; daily blog; and e-newsletter for knitting and fiber enthusiasts. Sandi Wiseheart is the editor. The company publishes Interweave Knits, Spin-Off, Knitscene, and Interweave Crochet magazines, and numerous books. "Investments like this are a priority of our long-term growth strategy as a multi-platform media business," says Clay Hall, CEO of Aspire Media, Interweave's parent company. "Knitting Daily is ideally positioned to serve as the ultimate knitting town square on the Internet, providing rich how-to content and inspiration on a daily basis."

NEEDLEWORK. DMC has launched Independent Retailer Email Newsletter, which will keep independents current on DMC's new products, product updates, product support and special offers and promotions. Retailers can sign up at dmcretailers@dmcus.com.

PROJECTS. Dow Chemical has new party and wedding how-to projects at www.styrofoamcrafts.com.

GIFT SHOWS. "... the overall market mood [at the Dallas Gift & Home Furnishings Market] seemed rather low key, but positive. A number of exhibitors with whom we spoke felt that the attendance was somewhat off, yet many reported that they were having a good show." – Gifts & Decorative Accessories ... After 23 years in Chicago, the Halloween Costume & Party show and National Haunt & Attractions show moves to Las Vegas, Mar. 16–19, 2008.

TV. The fourth bake decorate celebrate! Will be uplinked Aug. 19 to PBS stations. It's hosted by Nancy Siler and Melanie Glassock and produced by KS Inc. Productions. Visit www.bakedecoratecelebrate.com.

MAGAZINES. Interweave Press' Lapidary Journal has been redesigned and renamed Jewelry Artist. The editorial coverage spotlights gem cutting and metalsmithing, including stone setting and a variety of other jewelry-making media and techniques, but with greater emphasis now on trends and individual designers and artisans. Visit www.lapidaryjournal.com.

TRUE LOVE? Wal-Mart announced the winners of its "Lucky in Love Wedding Search." Seven couples will each receive wedding packages worth more than $5,000 – including nuptials in the lawn and garden section of their local Wal-Mart Supercenters. The weddings take place July 7, the Associated Press reported.

AWARD. National Accounts Manager Toni Goosev won Duncan Ent.'s President’s Award for excellence and "extreme commitment to the organization and its guiding principles," said CEO/President Larry Duncan.

REAL ESTATE. Rag Shops sold the "Designation Rights" to sell its 61 store leases to DJM Realty. The leases are available for sale in freestanding, strip center and mall locations in CN, FL, NJ, NY, and PA and range in size from 7,000 to 20,000 sq. ft. DJM plans to conduct an auction to sell each lease individually in late July. Call DMJ's Michael Jerbich at 312-928-1900 or email mjerbich@djmrealty.com. Visit www.djmrealty.com for property info.

QUOTATION. "If all these new leaders of our industry's chains start making decisions only on money saved, rather than on marketing, it will be good bye – another sad example of accountants 'saving' a business to death." – Manufacturer's Rep

CLN STOCK INDEX: (June 15-29) A.C. Moore: $19.61, down $3.42 ... Jo-Ann's: $28.43, down $1.66 ... Wal-Mart: $48.11, down $1.23 ... CLN Index: $96.06, down 6.1% ... Dow Jones: 13,408.62, down 1.7%. (Note: Exclusive of dividends.)

To see the latest listings by the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column, or click HERE.

As the Fourth of July approaches, we are deep into BBQ season. Therefore, it is important to refresh your memory on the etiquette of this outdoor cooking ritual, as it's the only type of cooking a real man will do, probably because there is an element of danger involved. When a man volunteers to do the BBQ, the following chain of events is put into motion:

The woman buys the food. The woman makes the salad, prepares the vegetables, and makes dessert. The woman prepares the meat for cooking, places it on a tray along with the necessary cooking utensils and sauces, and takes it to the man who is lounging beside the grill, beer in hand.

THE MAN PLACES THE MEAT ON THE GRILL.

The woman organizes the plates and cutlery. The woman tells the man that the meat is burning. He thanks her and asks if she will bring another beer while he deals with the situation.

THE MAN TAKES THE MEAT OFF THE GRILL AND GIVES IT TO THE WOMAN.

The woman prepares the plates, salad, bread, utensils, napkins, and sauces, and brings them to the table. After eating, the woman clears the table and does the dishes.

Everyone PRAISES THE MAN and THANKS HIM for his cooking efforts. The man asks the woman how she enjoyed "her night off" and, upon seeing her annoyed reaction, concludes that there's just no pleasing some women.

Happy BBQ Season to thoughtful men everywhere.

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xxx

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