Date: November 19, 2007
Vol. XI, No. 22

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: WOW! 

My commentary in the last issue regarding the excesses of some scrapbook enthusiasts ("Are Some Scrapbookers 'Crazy'?) attracted more comment than anything I've written in 28+ years in the industry. I had so many interesting, thought-provoking comments I didn't know what to do with them all. The commentary was also posted on a Two Peas message board and most of the folks there were, uh, unhappy. Some of them emailed me directly. Now I was really swamped.

I decided to place the comments from the industry in Business-Wise, the emails from the Two Peas visitors in Memory, Paper & Stamps, and highlights from both in the issue below.

Generally speaking, the industry liked my column and the Two Peas folks didn't. That reveals a disconnect between the industry and some of its most ardent consumers.

Whether or not you're in scrapbooking, there's a lot to read here, with provocative ideas on generational differences, taking the customer for granted, inadvertent sexism, the dark side of the Internet, and the differences between considering yourself an artist or a crafter.

Keep those emails coming! Email your thoughts to mike@clnonline.com.

Kate's College. Scrapbook reporter Nancy Nally explains why some of the most ardent scrapbookers – who spend the most money – are angry.

Business-Wise. Retailers, vendors, and others react to the scrapbook controversies.

Memory, Paper & Stamps. The consumers respond.

Note: To read the columns, click on the titles in the left-hand column. If it appears to be an "old" column, click on the "Refresh" or "Reload" button on your browser.

Since CLN first asked subscribers to predict the industry's performance this holiday season, the national economic news has worsened. Oil prices and product recalls are up while house values and the dollar are down. Major retailers such as J.C. Penney, Kohl's, and Macy's have warned the holiday selling season will be tough. So CLN asks again: Will tough economic times help the industry because consumers will save money by making cards and gifts rather than buying readymades? Or will the predicted slowdown in consumer spending hurt our industry, too? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE. CLN will compare the results with the previous poll to see if the industry is more or less optimistic.

Voters in CLN's unscientific poll believe digital photography is good for the industry, but are divided about the effect of digital scrapbooking. Almost half, 42.9%, said digital photography was a good thing, 28.6% said no, and 28.6% weren't sure. As for digital scrapbooking, voters were evenly split; 43.8% said it was good and an equal number said it wasn't. Only 12.5% were not sure one way or another.

These comments relate to the various scrapbooking controversies, but they apply to all businesses in all of the industry's categories: don't take customers for granted.

From http://scrapsmack.blogspot.com: "We are a varied group of women who want the companies to whom we chose to give our money to have respect for us, run their contests with integrity, provide us with the advertised classes we paid for as advertised, and give us product that actually performs as expected. I don't think that's too much to ask for. Oh, and one more thing – listen to us when we bring problems to you and don't dismiss us in an off-handed way."

From Leigh Edwards, former owner of Limited Edition Rubber Stamps and ACCI board member: "None of us likes to be viewed as an idiot, fed stories that are so obviously BS, disrespected by those we admire, or treated in a manner that makes us feel bad about ourselves, and these women have experienced all of those things in the last couple of weeks. Their anger is valid, palpable, and is going to bite certain companies in the butt. They are ready, willing, and able, to put their money where their mouths are. I think some in the industry have badly underestimated their anger."

From the author of the blog, A Civil Conversation About Scrapbooking: "I also think the magazines and manufacturers have made a mistake in pursuing younger consumers to the extent of excluding their older, more established hobbyists who for years were their bread and butter. The resentment has been building for a few years which is why I believe we're witnessing such a backlash."

Jo-Ann's reported that net sales for the third quarter ended Nov. 3 increased 4.0% to $480.2 million, and same-store sales for the quarter rose 2.4% compared to a year ago. For the first three quarters of the fiscal year, sales were $1.30 billion, up 4.0%, and same-store sales rose 3.5%. A year ago there had been a same-store sales decrease of 5.8%. The company will release its third-quarter earnings report on Nov. 28.

For the third quarter ended Oct. 31, net sales in the U.S. Wal-Mart stores rose 6.4% to $57.7 billion, but same-store sales, without counting gasoline sales, rose only 1.0%. Operating income rose 11.1% to $4.0 billion. Earnings per share from continuing operations were $0.70, up from $0.62. According to estimates compiled by Thomson Financial, analysts had expected earnings of $0.67, MarketWatch reported.

CEO Lee Scott said, "Our results for the third quarter reflect the improved performance of our U.S. operations. Both Wal-Mart Stores U.S. and Sam's Club increased profits faster than sales. Wal-Mart International posted a solid quarter as well. Our focus on managing inventory this quarter was very positive."

Judging by last month's sales, the consumer may be closing her pocketbook. Only 36% of the companies who report same-store sales and polled by Thomson Financial met expectations, while 64% missed estimates, the Associated Press reported. The Int. Council of Shopping Centers-UBS survey of same-store sales showed a gain of only 1.6%, below the original 2.5% percent forecast and the slowest increase since 1995.

Warm weather hurting sales of winter clothing and the consumers' worries about the economy were the culprits, analysts said. "Overall, the sales trend continues to slow," Ken Perkins of the research company RetailMetrics told Reuters. "I think the consumer is certainly feeling the (economic) pressure heading into the holidays."

Wal-Mart's same-store sales in the U.S. were flat and predicted November's same-store sales gain would be 0-2%.

It appears the pace of large private equity firms acquiring industry companies is slowing. Earlier this summer Jo-Ann's announced it was accepting offers, but there has not been an announcement about the company being sold. Private equity firms also had expressed an interest in A.C. Moore.

Blackstone, the firm that owns Michaels with Bain Capital, reported a third-quarter loss of $113.2 million ($0.44/share). The loss included $802.6 million of non-cash charges for compensation and other items linked to its IPO. Without those charges, there was a profit of $234 million ($0.21). Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a profit of $0.30, the Associated Press reported. It was Blackstone's first full quarter as a public company after its debut on the NY Stock Exchange in June. The stock price dropped after the report, and is down approximately 38% since the company went public.

The Wall Street Journal reported, "The sharp decline in demand from high-yield debt investors has made it all but impossible to pull off the large-scale leveraged buyouts that are Blackstone's stock in trade."

"I think that the craft/scrapbook industry is maturing and there are not very many 'platform' companies left in the craft/hobby/scrapbook industry that are willing to sell at this time," said Chad Burnett, a merger/acquisition specialist who has handled various deals in the industry. "It is true, however, that the existing private equity groups that already have holdings in the industry are looking for larger add-on opportunities. Most private equity groups in the industry are not interested in add-ons unless they have at least $3MM in EBITDA and already have significant presence in the big-box retailers. Nevertheless, there are a few medium-sized private companies that are looking to join the merger & acquisition bandwagon by buying companies under the radar screens of the large private equity groups."

CLN wondered if enthusiasts in decorative painting, cross stitch, and other categories were like scrapbookers, so we asked Shea Szachara and Doxie Keller, long-time leaders in decorative painting. Their answers were yes ... and no.

Shea believes the difference is generational. "What I do see is a different kind of woman who was not raised to be 'a good little girl' like me and others of my generation," Shea said. "Today's woman is one who has found confidence in her status, and deservedly so in my view.

"Unfortunately," Shea added, "there are many within this group who go to the extreme in trying to show their strength and wisdom. Thinking things through and seeing beyond the immediate is not their forte. They strike back in a verbal manner that goes overboard and actually weakens their position."

Doxie sees similarities in the fact that enthusiasts are "collectors." They have far more paints, papers, stickers, yarn, beads, embroidery floss, and other products essential to their passion than they will ever use – just like book lovers keep buying books, although they already own a life-time's worth of reading material.

"How could [scrapbookers] possibly know what times were like in the heyday of the craft categories to which you referred?" Shea asked. "They were busy learning from their mothers how to be intelligent, assertive women. Not all got the lesson right and what they have here is a scrapbooking scrap."

(Note: These are excerpts from subscribers' reactions to the "Crazy" commentary. To read their complete comments, click on Business-Wise in the left-hand column.)

"All of the old salts in stamping know each other, and as far as I am concerned, support each other.... Stamping, kind of an odd craft, has lasted for about 36 years, possibly because of some cooperation between us. I am not sure scrapbooking, around for about 15, will last another 20. I hope it does." – Warren Gruenig, Posh Impressions

"I am not comfortable signing my real name because if it ever got out, these crazy women might hunt me down – and I'm really not kidding about that." – Name Withheld

"I don't think people craft as a second choice to something they'd really like (the dream house). No matter what the craft, there's a myriad of supplies, colors, and ideas that fascinate us, that challenge us, that bring a satisfaction in accomplishment. Yes, there's also the fun of crafting with a group and making friends based on a mutual passion." – Donna M. Frost, Quarry House Distributors

"My boys, 8 and 11, love my pages featuring their smiles. They don't care that the pages are not the best in the world; they are the best in THEIR world. And it's sad to think we could be intimidating average moms out of having such simple, good experiences!" – Karan Smith, Magic Mesh (Comment: Karan's remarkable success story was recently profiled in TD Monthly. Visit www.toydirectory.com/monthly/article.asp?id=2802.)

"There are private boards where a handful of scrapbookers bash the stores, manufacturers, and publishers.... What our industry needs to keep in mind is that these scrapbookers are a minority; we should ignore them and not let them have the power they have." – A retailer who asked that her name be withheld.

"OK, if someone cheats in baseball by taking steroids and Congress gets involved – who's crazy? ... If someone fixed the Super Bowl, imagine the outcry. But we're crazy to be upset when the one of the most prestigious contests in scrapbooking looks fixed?" – Kate Childers

"... the scrapbooking industry is on the decline, that many consumers are choosing not to spend as much of their discretionary income as years past, and that many scrapbookers are no longer able to enjoy their once plentiful scrapbooking budgets due to the lagging economy and less-than-stellar product choices." – Katie Scarlett

" ... if you looked online at the Creating Keepsakes and Two Peas galleries you will see many many layouts about surviving cancer; going on after losing a child, parent, or spouse; and/or just having a plain bad day." – Julie Begeron

The National NeedleArts Assn.'s new officers are President Marilyn Murphy (Interweave Press); VP Jim Bryson (Bryson Distributing); Acting Sec./Treas. David Stott (Norden Crafts); and Past President Stacy Charles (Tahki-Stacy Charles) ... Additional members are Betsy Perry (Classic Elite Yarns), DeElda Wittmack (DeElda), Sharon Garmize (Sharon G), Amy Bunger (Amy's Golden Strand), and Shelly Tribbey (Shelly Tribbey Designs). ... Product segment chairs are Cathe Ray (Needle In A Haystack), Counted Thread & Embroidery Group; Joel Woodcock (Lantern Moon), Yarn Group; and Emily Pannier (Chandail Needlework), Needlepoint Group.

The new Retail Member Section gives retailers a greater identity and a stronger voice within TNNA. The Chair is Karen Aho (Acorn Street Shop). Other members are Kathy Elkins (Webs - America's Yarn Store); Lois Hoeft (A Stitch in Time); Linda Carter (Yarn Garden); Penny Franz (Ewe Count); Gayle Horton (Accents, Inc.); and Theresa Swiecicki (Homestead Needle Arts).

The uproar over the Creative Keepsakes Hall of Fame contest caught the eye of Newsweek magazine. The article in the Nov. 12 issue provided scrapbooking with exactly the kind of publicity the category did not need. It reported on the disqualification of HoF winner Kristina Contes who claimed irate bloggers and their followers had threatened to flood her restaurant with fake reservations. The article quoted one comment on the Scrap Smack blog: "The b---h doesn't have a moral bone in her body."

Finally Contes told Newsweek, "Women prove time and again that they are ridiculous, vile creatures."

Meanwhile the Salt Lake Tribune interviewed Mitchell Wolfe, Sr. VP of Commerce for Kaboose, the parent company of Two Peas, regarding a "glitch that apparently enabled users to access and copy snippets from a private message board. In some of the messages, the general manager and members of the Two Peas design team, known as the Garden Girls, complained about customers and called them profane names."

A recent check of the message boards on the Michaels website may give an indication of the relative popularity of various product categories. Other than general boards such as "Meet the Members," "Michaels Project Discussions," and "Find a Friend," the most popular board was "Beads" with 1,228 threads and 11,632 posts. Next was "Scrapbooking" (978 and 5,228); "Weddings, Michaels Style" (750 and 3,640); and "Needlework" (which includes knitting – 535 and 2,070). Far behind were "Rubber Stamping," "Polymer Clay," "Fine Arts," "Floral and Home Decor," and "Cardmaking."

Or, the boards may not be an accurate reflection. Hard core scrappers may shop at Michaels but prefer the TwoPeas boards. Rubber stampers, painters, and clay enthusiasts may also prefer specialized sites and boards. Florals may not lend itself to discussions and questions.

Regardless, message boards indicate the thinking of our customers, spread rumors, and can result in powerful word-of-mouth advertising – positive or negative. MarketingProfs.com has an excellent article, "Seven Ways to Monitor Blog Conversations" by TJ McCue. If you're wondering what bloggers are saying about you and your business and how to deal with rumors, false charges, and complaints, it's well worth reading. (You have to sign up for a two-day free trial to read it.) 

Visit www.marketingprofs.com/webnews/7/news11-13-07_0.asp.

1. American Traditional Designs is now a division of Momemta, a consumer products company whose brands include Firefly (stationery products) and Complements (home dec products). ATD will begin being marketed with a new logo and packaging. There is no change in management – Michael Barker continues as President.

2. Li’l Davis Designs has joined Fiskars. Tricia Barrett and Brian Fogg will remain the creative leads of Li’l Davis, and the operations and marketing will be handled at Fiskars’ U.S. headquarters in Madison, WI. The newest lines will be revealed at the CHA Winter Show. "We are excited about having Tricia and Brian join our family," says Fiskars President Chad Vincent. "The brand look and feel that they have created and nurtured holds great potential for growth."

3. Arctic Frog is closing and is liquidating its inventory until Dec. 1. Prices are 60% off wholesale. On Dec. 1 the company will hold a warehouse sale for the general public. AF's original six products have been kitted and are $2.00 each. To access a pdf of the order form, click on "order" in the upper right corner of www.arcticfrog.net, then use Buyer as the login and Lilly as the password. Fax orders to 479-621-5374, phone them to 479-636-3764, or email them to info@arcticfrog.net.

Owner Alannah Jurgensmeyer wrote, "... we've had a great time, learned so much about another side of the scrapbook and printing industries, met a lot of nice people and made more than a few friends. In the end we're left with our lessons learned, our memories and a lot of scrapbook supplies that will live on in our scrapbooks to tell our stories and carry our legacies to future generations."

4. The web video series, Scrapbook Lifestyle, is closing. The shows will be available through the week of Dec. 17. Visit www.scrapbooklifestyle.com.

5. Colorbok has completed the acquisition of Creative Crafts, also known as California Creations. Colorbok is transitioning shipping to Colorbok's distribution center in California.

Gift cards can be the perfect solution for our industry's retailers who are faced with consumers who want to buy a present for a crafter, scrapper, beader, knitter, or painter, but have no idea what to purchase.

Holiday sales of gift cards will increase, according to the new National Retail Federation Gift Card Survey. Sales are expected to total $26.3 billion this season, up from $24.8 billion in 2006. Plus, consumers will spend more on gift cards this year – $122.59 vs. $116.51 in 2006.

Yet a new survey by the Consumer Reports National Research Center found that 27% of respondents who received gift cards last year did not use one or more of them – up from 19% a year ago, Reuters reported. Major causes: consumers said they had no time to shop, could not find anything they wanted to buy, or forgot about the cards altogether.

Gift cards change the length of the holiday season, too, because retailers do not count the revenue from a gift card until the recipient actually uses it, which is often in January or February. So December sales may appear disappointing but January sales surprisingly good.

1. The discount stores are increasing their efforts in consumer electronics, but it's not working so well, according to the new study by J.D. Power and Associates, as reported in This Week in Consumer Electronics (TWICE), a trade publication. According to the article, clerks at Wal-Mart, Kmart, Sam's, and other discount chains were woefully inadequate in terms of assistance, product knowledge, and sales skills compared to clerks at Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. (Comment: If it's true in consumer electronics, CLN suspects it would be true in crafts, too.) To read the complete article, visit http://twice.com/article/CA6469681.html.

2. A study conducted by M/A/R/C Research and National In-Store found 16+% of consumers said they would stop visiting a store if they have a bad experience. Store categories where consumers actively seek advice and assistance from sales clerks, such as consumer electronics and hardware/home improvement stores, are particularly vulnerable. Two-thirds of the survey respondents said knowledgeable clerks are very important; 95+% said clerks are very/somewhat important. "While product and price may bring customers in the door, executing the expected level of customer service keeps them from walking out and into a competitor's store," said Erika Cinicolo, research manager at M/A/R/C Research.

3. "When a customer makes up his mind about where he's going to shop today, he's deciding what he'll endure to get it. What you deliver each and every time affects your reputation. It's cumulative and dynamic. It takes a while to build a reputation, and it takes much less time to ruin it." – Dr. Leonard Berry, Professor of Marketing at Texas A&M University (Dallas Morning News)

4. Wal-Mart plans to remove its toll-free customer service number from its website, E-Commerce Times reported. Apparently many customers called to track orders, but now the site is better equipped to handle tracking through self-help features.

5. (We are not making this up.) Hub Clothing in Scottsdale, AZ believed most blue jeans shoppers are concerned about how they look from behind, so the store installed a Butt Cam, a camera connected to a video screen on a dressing room wall, the Associated Press reported.

1. An intelligent, thoughtful blog on the subject of the various scrapbook uproars is "A Civil Conversation About Scrapbooking." Visit http://civilconversation.blogspot.com.

2. For a blog that shows just how nasty people can be when they're anonymous, visit http://scrapsmack.blogspot.com. The author raises some interesting points, but some of the responses are stunning. Clock on the "Blog Archive" for November, then scroll down to the Nov. 5 entry and click on the responses – 679 at last count -- and some of them x-rated. I've never read such vitriol.

3. A problem with any sort of artistic contest, whether it's scrapbooking, quilting, painting, or knitting: evaluating the worth of a project is ultimately subjective. That allows the losers to console themselves with thoughts of conspiracy and favoritism. To protect themselves against such charges, contest sponsors should use as judges people such as college art professors who have no connection with publishers, popular designers, or any other category leaders.

4. One Two Peas participant snarled at me, am I a hermit, don't I need a community, too. My answer: "Here's my community: the thousands of people who started manufacturing and retailing scrapbook supplies, some of whom will lose their homes or be unable to send their kids to college if their businesses fail. Did you see the Newsweek article? The key to any hobby's long-term success is that it continues to attract new consumers. CK screwed up, admitted it, and set rules in place so it doesn't happen again. But some of the scrappers won't let it go, and the end result is ugly publicity that will scare away potential newcomers."

PEOPLE. Hancock named Joseph Borbely Sr. VP of Store Operations. He had been VP of Operations and Head of Stores for Applied Cash Advance; prior to that he worked at Hollywood Entertainment, J. Baker Inc. and Kinney Shoe Corp. ... Colorbφk named Todd Spang as VP of Sales. He had been Sales VP at Fiskars, and prior to that at K & Company. ... Jerry Cohn, President/CEO of Wrights, was named President/CEO of Simplicity Pattern. Cohn retains his position with Wrights. Cohn replaces Frank Rizzo, who resigned to pursue other interests, as the exec offices of Wrights and Simplicity are being combined. Lou Oltman, Simplicity's Sr. VP of Sales & Marketing, also resigned. Simplicity will maintain its office and showroom in New York. Wrights will maintain its offices in Massachusetts.

RECALLS. Kudos to Hobby Lobby for the way the company handled a recall of a Halloween basket sold between Aug. 2 and Nov. 7 because of excessive lead. A) They were voluntarily recalled in cooperation with the US Consumer Product Safety Commission. B) Consumers were given a $2 exchange card, although the basket cost only 99 cents. C) The recall notice is prominent on the website, www.hobbylobby.com. (See "Recall" in red at the bottom of the screen). D) Click on "Recall" and you'll read a personal letter from CEO David Green.

KIDS. On the heels of the recent recall of Aqua Dots, Perler Beads, a division of Dimensions, issued a press release reminding the industry and consumers that the beads, the plastic, and the pegboard shapes are made in the U.S. There is no chemical coating – and no paint – on the beads. (Comment: Previously Plaid issued a similar press release reminding the world that its paint lines do not contain lead. Companies who are afraid consumers will confuse their products with products that have been re-called should do the same.)

HOLIDAY SHOPPING. Shoppers are off to a slow start, according to the National Retail Federation’s 2007 Holiday Consumer Intentions Survey. Most consumers (71.4%) have less than 10% of their holiday shopping completed. "Good news lies ahead for many retailers whose shoppers have yet to put a dent in their shopping lists," said NRF President/CEO Tracy Mullin. "Now that the weather has started to cool, consumers will start to think about holiday shopping by making lists, researching gift ideas, and window shopping around town."

$$$. The dollar continued to sink against foreign currencies. It hit a record low against the euro after a senior Chinese political figure said China should diversify its $1.43 trillion foreign exchange reserves into the euro and other strong currencies, the Associated Press reported.

BEADS. To read an excellent article in the Clarion (MS) Ledger explaining the growth of beads and jewelrymaking, visit www.clarionledger.com and type the reporter's name, LaReeca Rucker, in the search engine, then her Nov. 6 report.

CRIME. As if retailing isn't hard enough, a Franklin, TN man was arrested for exposing himself to a woman in the fabric department at the local Hobby Lobby.

CARDS. A new study by Unity Marketing reports greeting card sales rebounded after four years of declining sales. In 2006 sales rose to $10+ billion, up 11% from 2004. Unity President Pam Danzgier believes the increase is the result of " ... a shift in consumers' shopping preferences away from mass retailers and discounters, like dollar stores, toward more specialty retailers that offered better designs, higher quality, and more specialized card choices."

QUOTATION. "A good reputation is measured by how much you can improve the lives of others – customers, employees, community." – George Eastman (1854-1932), founder of Eastman Kodak Company

PAINTING. Easl Publications released Garden Flowers You Can Paint!, by Gerry Klein, but it's not a book, per se. It's a CD and a DVD, with 90 minutes of video instruction, printable PDF worksheets, and an interactive, web-style tutorial. Visit www.youcanpaint.com and www.easlpublications.com. (Comment: Could this be the industry "book" of the future?)

LAST-MINUTE REMINDER. The deadline for signing up for the Designer Showcase at the CHA Winter Show in Anaheim is Nov. 30. For a registration form, visit www.chashow.org, click on License and Design, then Designer Showcase ... Nov. 30 is also the deadline for submitting material for the Fashion Crafting Plasma Screen. For info, contact Tara Smith – tsmith@craftandhobby.org or call 201-794-1133, ext. 223. ... Dec. 1 is the deadline submitting the Hanging Sign Authorization Form. Visit www.ges.com/ecomm/2008/cha08/pdf/sectionVII.pdf.

MAGAZINES. The first issue of Kalmbach's new Make It Mine, edited by Linda Augsburg, is now on newsstands. The website, with a newsletter, editor's blog, downloadable projects, and video, is www.makeitminemag.com.

CLASSES. My Creative Classroom is offering free online classes. To see the course catalog, visit www.mycreativeclassroom.com/_mgxroot/page_10755.html.

CLN STOCK INDEX: A.C. Moore: $16.45, up $0.85 ... Jo-Ann's: $18.47, up $0.81 ... Wal-Mart: $46.34, up $2.15 ... CLN Index: up 4.9% ... Dow Jones: 13,176.79, down 3.1%. (Note: All changes in price are since 11/2 and are exclusive of dividends.)

To see the latest job listings from the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

May your stuffing be tasty, may your turkey be plump.
May your potatoes 'n gravy have nary a lump.
May your yams be delicious, may your pies take the prize.
May your Thanksgiving dinner stay off of your thighs.

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xxx

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