Date: December 3, 2007
Vol. XI, No. 23

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: HOW MANY TYPES OF ENTHUSIASTS? 

No matter what type of product you're making or selling, it's important to know the differences among your consumers. It's unlikely you can appeal to all types all the time, so it's important to pick your target audience.

In scrapbooking, for example, we may need to add a new word to our industry dictionary: "artbookers." The term was used by a Two Peas consumer who had emailed me about my "Crazy" commentary, and it struck a chord. I asked her what she meant; she said she couldn't explain it, but knew it when she saw it.

Then I saw a copy of the Creating Keepsakes Hall of Fame issue and knew what she meant. This isn't basic scrapbooking, this is graphic design.

There really are at least two types of consumers in this category. The "scrapbooker" (often referred to by the enthusiasts as "Suzy Scrapbooker") just wants a nice looking page for photos of her family. She'd like to use acid-free, lignin-free supplies so her albums won't fall apart like her grandmother's did. She'll do a little journaling, giving the names of the people in the photos and the date. Contests are not important or she doesn't think her work is good enough to enter.

Mike Dolan of Scrapbook 911 said, "There might even be two groups in this silent majority, the stickers and card stock ones, and the ones who make elaborate pages based on what is available at the moment. These scrapbookers don't look at brand names, only at what is available on the shelf. This group accounts for the vast majority of purchases." The key to their pages are the photographs, not the "look" of the page.

The "artbooker" is evolving, or already has evolved, into a graphic artist and this is serious business. She contributes to message boards, subscribes to the magazines, enters contests (and raises hell if there's a hint of impropriety), and feels betrayed/abandoned when the magazines seem to be trying to attract new, younger consumers. The overall "look" is important.

Mike Dolan defined them this way: "They are often on the design team or an instructor of a local store, are more likely to buy supplies and tools online, and are the loud minority." He suggested the term, "leading-edge scrapbooker."

Another Two Peas contributor described what I was getting at: "Which group talks to the manufacturers and tells them what 'everyone' wants? Which group 'test drives' new tools and such? Which group is the one actually driving the industry? Yup. It's us. WE forced the onslaught of new items 3X a year that we now are overwhelmed by. WE had to have the newest trends. WE are the ones who are vocal and are heard. WE caused the divide.

"The manufacturers are scrambling to survive and it's tough," she added. "They all want to be talked about online. They want that frenzy over their products. But it's short-lived and online consumers have moved on to the next great thing long before the manufacturer has moved enough product to break even – and the non-online consumers don't 'need' their products and don't even want them if they're super trendy and artsy. They don't want a Hambly overlay on their pony ride picture. They want an EK themed $1.19 sticker. The kind we turn our nose up at. The one that if Hambly released it, they'd be laughed off the online boards. So yes, it's US that forces the divide. Most manufacturers just can't satisfy everyone so they're forced to choose."

I think realizing we have various types of consumers in every product category can clarify and simplify strategy decisions for retailers, vendors, and publishers.

NEW COLUMNS THIS ISSUE

Designing Perspectives. "It is no wonder craft products are sometimes one or two years behind when compared to the other merchandise in the consumer's shopping cart."

Memory, Paper & Stamps. A thoughtful response from a scrapbooker on what's happened to the industry. "What you are looking at is a bunch of fed up scrapbookers who are tired of being told that their hobby is not for them, that it has evolved into something that’s more sophisticated than they are. Life coaches in scrapbooking? Please."

Business-Wise. A veteran scrapbook teacher writes, "I’ve never been certain how or why, for so many, scrapbooking became a world of celebrity, contentious competition, and ego, or why the industry as a whole bought into it."

"Vinny Da Vendor". How AMACO is helping fight cancer with polymer clay contests.

Note: If it appears to be an "old" column, click on the "Refresh" or "Reload" button on your browser.

Next month voters in Iowa will meet in caucuses to cast their votes for President. Now, you can too – in both parties. Click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column, or click HERE, and we'll see if/how the industry's preferences differ from those of actual voters.

Almost half, 48.4%, of the voters in CLN's unscientific poll believe the slowing economy will depress sales this holiday season. A more optimistic view is held by 32.3% who believe it will help sales as cash-strapped consumers make cards and gifts rather than buying readymades. Almost one in five voters, 19.4%, were not sure if the economy would help or hurt sales.

The results mirror the results of a similar question in early September. Apparently the housing lending crisis and the rise in oil prices did little to change voters' minds.

The National Retail Federation's 2007 Black Friday Weekend Survey indicated 147+ million shoppers hit the stores on Black Friday weekend, up 4.8% from last year. More people, but they spent less: consumers spent an average of $347.44, down 3.5% from a year ago, but up 14.8% from 2005. Another survey by the research company ShopperTrak reported sales rose 8.3%.

"While last year showed a greater emphasis on high-definition televisions, this year consumers were focused on lower priced doorbusters like digital photo frames, laptops and cashmere sweaters," said NRF President/CEO Tracy Mullin. "Though Black Friday weekend was a complete success for many retailers, the results of the holiday season won't be determined until the last two weeks of December."

Apparently sitting in cold parking lots waiting for stores to open early is becoming part of the Thanksgiving weekend tradition: 14.3% of consumers were shopping before 4: 00 am, up from 12.4% last year. Crowds at discount stores were up slightly, and down slightly at department stores. By the end of the Thanksgiving weekend, consumers had completed 36.4% of their holiday shopping.

The "door-buster" deep discounts proved to be a two-edged sword. Sales and store traffic rose, but the average consumer spent less. Apparently many consumers shopped for the good deals, and not much else.

Meanwhile, a growing number of consumers are turning to crafts for presents. More than 6,500 people have pledged to buy handmade gifts or give their own creations at www.buyhandmade.org.

Internet shopping continues to grow. U.S. online shoppers spent a record $733 million on Cyber Monday, up 21% from a year ago. The number of online buyers rose 38%, but the average dollar per buyer fell 12%. According to the market research firm conScore and reported by Reuters. The study attributed part of the decline to deep discounting. The most visited sites, in order, belonged to Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, and Circuit City, Hitwise reported.

Total sales for the quarter rose 4.9% to $940.2 million and same-store sales increased 1.9%.

Year to date, sales have risen 3.2% to $2.577 billion and same-store sales are up 0.8%. Net income fell $53.1 million to a net loss of $18.1 million in the third quarter and has declined to a net loss of $84.6 million for the year, primarily due to interest expense. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, a measure of a company's ability to service its debt, was $118.4 million, 12.6% of sales, compared to $110.0 million, or 12.3% of sales, a year ago.

The gross margin rate increased 110 basis points for the third quarter and 80 basis points for the year, thanks to leverage in occupancy costs, and to continued growth in merchandise margins due to more efficient promotional programs and the benefits of ongoing product sourcing initiatives.

CEO Brian Cornell said, "Overall, this was a solid quarter and we are pleased with our performance. In a challenging economic environment, our comparable store sales were up solidly at 1.9%, building on last year's strong 3.3% third quarter comparable store sales performance.

"During the quarter, we made significant progress on our key strategic initiatives, particularly our global sourcing and pricing/promotion programs," Cornell added. "Importantly, we are confident in our approach to evolve into a stronger consumer-facing and customer-driven organization while maintaining our focus on operations and cost management."

For the fourth quarter, same-store sales are expected to be approximately flat, and total sales growth will be negatively impacted by the absence of a 53rd week this year. Total sales are expected to be down approximately 1%. Operating income is expected to be $225-$235 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $280-$290 million versus $301million a year ago, which included the additional 53rd week with sales of $58.7 million.

This fiscal year the company opened 43 new stores, relocated 11, remodeled 39, and closed three. The company also opened two and closed one Aaron Brothers store.

Net income for the third quarter ended Nov. 3 jumped to $8 million ($0.32/diluted share) compared to $100,000 a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected, on average, earnings of $0.28. Sales grew 4% to $480.2 million. Sales in the large-format stores grew 7.9% to $247 million and same-store sales rose 2.4%. Sales in the small-format stores were flat at $233.2 million but their same-store sales also grew 2.4%.

Gross margins for the quarter increased 60 basis points to 48.0% from 47.4%, attributed to the timing of plan-o-gram resets and clearance markdowns taken in the second quarter. Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to $199.1 million from $198.5 million, but improved by 150 basis points to 41.5% of net sales. Operating profit for the quarter was $16.7 million, versus $5.0 million a year ago.

Net sales for the first three quarters were $1.30 billion compared to $1.25 billion a year ago, and same-store sales rose 3.5%. Sales in large-format stores increased 10.6% to $661.3 million and same-store sales increased 4.6%. Small-format stores' sales decreased 3.1% to $631.6 million, but same-store sales rose 2.6%.

"I am pleased with our ongoing improvement as we deliver on our strategic plan and capitalize on competitive dynamics in the fabric industry," said Chair/President/CEO Darrell Webb. "Despite a weakening economy, during the third quarter, we drove same-store sales growth, margin expansion, and a strong earnings-per-share increase. We are making progress on our initiatives to improve the customer shopping experience and enhance our marketing and merchandising. As we continue to execute our plan, including the implementation of a more disciplined approach to new store site selection and store remodels, we will be able to deliver sustainable sales and earnings growth over the long term."

Less competition should help, too, Webb said. he said Hancock has closed about 134 stores and Wal-Mart has dropped fabric in about 153 stores that are within 10 miles of a Jo-Ann's; he estimated 340+ Wal-Marts have already eliminated fabric and will remove the department from all but 700-750 stores – about 80% of all U.S. Wal-Marts.

The company opened one large-format store and closed five small-format stores during the quarter. Year-to-date, the company opened six large-format stores and closed 22 small-format stores. For the balance of the year, the company expects to close 10 small-format stores and one large-format store. Next fiscal year, the company expects to open 12-15 stores and remodel approximately 30 stores. It remodeled the 26 stores it had planned to remodel this year.

The stock price fell, however, because the company lowered its fiscal 2008 earnings guidance to $0.55-$0.60/share from its previous range of $0.60-$0.70, citing the increased uncertainty in consumer spending and "current market conditions."

Despite the lower guidance, BB&T Capital Markets analyst Laura Richardson said, "... we have more confidence in Jo-Ann's ability to continue financial improvement next year than we do in many other retailers, albeit at a slower pace than in FY'08."

Mart Green, whose father David founded Hobby Lobby, has promised Oral Roberts U. a gift of $70 million, enough to wipe out the university's massive debt. One caveat: the school must show "good governance" of its finances, the Tulsa World reported.

Green said his family had already given the university $8 million to meet immediate financial needs, and will donate the remaining $62 million after a 90-day review process.

The offer came after Oral Roberts' son Richard had resigned as president. He resigned following allegations in a lawsuit that he and his family misspent university and ministry money, but he told a press conference that God told him to resign.

The Norman Transcript, "[Green's gift] may be the white knight that keeps the school afloat financially and brings other donors to the cause."

1. Pure Allure recalled about 200,000 Crystal Innovations jewelry parts sold at Michaels due to high levels of lead, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission reported. The items, manufactured in China, were sold at Michaels from April 2006 to September 2007. No incidents or injuries have been reported.

2. Michaels, Big Lots, and several smaller retailers agreed with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to discontinue the sale of children's jewelry found to contain dangerous levels of lead, Dow Jones News reported. Cuomo said Michaels' amended vendor policy requires suppliers to certify their compliance with federal and state laws regarding hazardous children's products and to expand its lead testing to a wide range of products.

"My office has undertaken an ongoing and extensive investigation into lead levels in children's jewelry, and taken swift, enforceable action to remove contaminated products from stores," Cuomo told the Associated Press."I commend Michaels Stores and Big Lots for taking immediate and proactive steps to address the problems revealed by our investigation and for agreeing to safeguards against lead contamination."

3. California Attorney General Edmund Brown Jr. and Los Angeles City Attorney Rockard Delgadillo today sued 20 companies for manufacturing or selling toys with "unlawful quantities of lead." Companies subject to the lawsuit include retailers such as Michaels, Toys R Us, Wal-Mart, Target, Sears, KB Toys, Costco Wholesale, and manufacturers such as Mattel and Fisher-Price.

The state's lawsuit alleges that companies knowingly exposed individuals to lead and failed to provide any warning about this risk. Under the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986, known as Proposition 65, businesses cannot expose individuals to hazardous chemicals without posting a clear warning. If they violate Proposition 65, they are subject to civil penalties of up to $2,500 per day for each violation.

Chain Stores may tend to wipe out independent shops, but it's not a forgone conclusion. For example, Jo-Ann's is closing its store in Sioux City, IA, following by a few months the closure of the local Hancock store. That should make life easier for two quilt shops, My Quilt Shop and Heart and Hand Dry Goods in this area that has a population of approximately 85,000. The only competition is Wal-Mart and Hobby Lobby – and if Wal-Mart phases out fabric....

Meanwhile, independent Emma Gebo in Pocatello, ID (population 50,000) worried a few years ago because her store, Sierra's, was competing against Hancock and a new store, Village Crafts (Michaels' now abandoned smaller-store, smaller-town experiment). Now they're both gone and Emma tells CLN that Pocatello is back to where it was in 2002.

Well, not quite the same. Emma needed more space, so she moved her store into the long-gone Village Crafts store.

A.C. Moore received a letter from NASDAQ saying it wasn't in compliance with the filing requirements for its stock's continued listing on NASDAQ because the company had not filed its report for the quarter ended Sept. 30. As a result, A.C. Moore's shares of common stock are subject to delisting. A.C. Moore requested a hearing before a Nasdaq Listing Qualifications Panel to appeal. This request will stay the delisting until the appeal has been heard and the Panel has rendered its decision.

The problem is due to the company's continuing review of its inventory accounting methods as previously reported in CLN. Because of that, A.C. Moore was unable to file its Form 10-Q for the quarter by the due date of November 9.

The company said it anticipates being able to file the Form for the third quarter 2007 and any prior financial statements requiring restatement during the first quarter of 2008, subject to completion of the year-end inventory, internal inventory accounting review, and restatement process. At that time the company expects to be in compliance.

About 20 years ago, I was in Bentonville for a meeting with Wal Mart. I was having breakfast at the hotel restaurant, and Sam Walton was having breakfast in the restaurant with some of his friends. He came up to me and said, "I know your company has sold us your product line and been a good partner with us. I noticed in the store the other day that we have a new name on the line and was wondering if we had made a change in manufacturer or if that was still yours?"

I explained we had changed labels and it was still ours. I thanked him for his interest and asked, "How do you have time to even be aware of something like this with everything going on at Wal-Mart and in your stores?"

He looked at me and said, "Well if a product is in my store then I should know about it. That is part of why I visit stores constantly and know the products and, of course, the associates working in the store."

Everyone who knew Sam has these types of stories. The craft and fabric industry was lucky he was in the business and that he and [his wife] Helen had a real affinity for our products. The Wal Mart Craft Fair was just one other small indication of his interest and presence. He would be at the Fair every year. – Industry Consultant

(Comment: CLN wonders if the top execs at Wal-Mart and other chains know every product line in their stores.)

I think within any "community" there are normal people and then there are the crazies. One thing that concerns me is how many manufacturers actually take what is posted as what consumers want. I do not think that there is a disconnect between the industry and some of the most ardent customers. We track the purchasing behavior of all of our customers via the frequent-buyer program in our POS software. Less than 5% of our customer base is on a message board such as Two Peas, and their purchases are well below store average. I do think that the majority of LSS owners have a good sense on what their customers will buy, but the disconnect is between the LSS and the manufacturer.

We do monitor many message boards to make sure that the image of our store is good, and we have only twice contacted posters in order to clear up any misunderstandings that may have occurred between our staff and them. We also see how many high-drama posts there are.

Another good example of how much message boards mean is the recent release by Creative Imaginations, "Creative Cafe." It was certainly all of the buzz for a week or so as to when it would be in local stores. Our order came in and we had fewer than 10 customers buy it because they had seen it on Two Peas. We have sold quite a bit of the product to hundreds of other customers because we believed that it was something our customers would buy. – Mike Dolan, Scrapbook 911

1. For interesting ideas about the value of design teams, contests, and scrapbooking's reputation, read the Nov. 27 entry in "A Civil Conversation About Scrapbooking" at http://civilconversation.blogspot.com.

2. For a thoughtful analysis of the state of scrapbooking, read the Nov. 25 entry in "Scrapbook News and Review". Visit http://scrapbooknewsandreview.blogspot.com.

3. For a soul-searching commentary on how "uncreative" so many craft products are, visit the Nov. 27 entry in "RosieSue's Stream of Consciousness" Visit http://rosie-sue.blogspot.com. She's complaining about Michaels, but she's really talking about manufacturers.

1. The more I think about it, I think scrapbook contests are a bad idea, whether the sponsor is a store or a magazine. As the author of the Scrapsmack blog wrote to me, "When the scrap-hobbyist looks at her layout, she is not seeing the product, she is seeing her child, her mother, her husband; she is re-living that moment." So when she submits her layout, and it's rejected in favor of someone else's child, mother, husband, and moment, of course she's going to feel angry and suspicious. She takes the time and effort to submit a layout of her precious baby and she's labeled a loser? What retailer or publisher wants to be the cause of that?

Karan Smith disagrees. Her company, Magic Mesh, has supported contest at individual stores. "I think there is a delicate place in the shops for home-grown contests," she wrote. "Everyone submits and is proud of their level of achievement and inspires others with their techniques. Categories include kids, tweens, and adults (so there are obviously beginners who get as much, if not more, praise for doing it.)" What are your thoughts? Email them to mike@clnonline.com.

2. Contests are not as easy as one might think. Art contests imply at least a semblance of subjectivity, but even contests whose winners should be obvious can have problems. CNBC had a stock-picking contest and the winner was the contestant whose stocks showed the greatest return. But according to Business Week, there was loophole in the computer trading system, a quirk in the computer system which threw some results out the window.

MEDIA. The Indianapolis Star made a mistake that scared the daylights out of a number of vendors. It reported that Jo-Ann Fabrics had requested the bankruptcy court to switch from Chapter 11 to Chapter 7 (liquidation). The article meant Joan Fabrics, an upholstery fabric business based in Tyngsborough, MA. Jo-Ann's is NOT in any form of bankruptcy. Some subscribers asked CLN if the article meant Hancock. No, it didn't. Hancock is still in Chapter 11 and has NOT filed for Chapter 7. The newspaper ran a correction two days later.

CORRECTION. Jo-Ann's did not announce it was accepting offers from private equity companies.

PEOPLE. A.C. Moore named Joseph Jeffries Exec VP of Operations. Jeffries, 42, has served in various senior management roles for Office Depot, most recently as VP of Store Operations, Space Planning, and Visual Merchandising. Reporting to Jeffries will be Craig Davis, Sr. VP of Merchandising and Marketing; Daniel Maguire, VP of Store Operations; and Michael Metheny, VP of Supply Chain. ... Wilton promoted Karen Swinford to Sr. VP of its Housewares division. ... Best wishes to Jim Guin who has retired from American & Efird after 39 years. "I feel fortunate to have had the opportunity to make a lot of friends in this industry over those years and I will miss them," Jim said. Marci Brier has assumed the position of Dir. of the Consumer Products Division.

MILITARY. Want to send a Christmas card to a service man overseas? Visit www.americasupportsyou.mil, www.usocares.org, www.redcross.org.

COMPANY FOR SALE. Color Your Own T-Shirts and Posters has many original designs including science, nature, fun, fine art, etc. Very educational with solid potential to be carried in museum, toy, specialty, and chain stores. Email mn@thejnet.com for detailed info.

SHOWS. Online registration for the CHA Winter Show Feb. 10-13 in Anaheim is open. Visit www.chashow.org. If your 2008 membership dues have been processed, you will be able to login to register for badges using your email address on file with CHA, your 6-digit CHA ID, and zip code (outside the U.S. leave blank). For help, email registration@craftandhobby.org. ... The 2008 Summer Knit & Crochet show, with Crochet Guild of America and The Knitting Guild Assn. conferences and CGOA Chain Link special events, will be July 25-27 in Manchester, NH. The Fall Knit & Crochet show, with TKGA & CGOA Conferences and TKGA special events, will be Sept.12-14 in Portland. Visit www.knitandcrochetshow.com.

CONGRESS. A House subcommittee approved a measure overhauling the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, but it is much different than a Senate version, so its ultimate passage is in doubt. The House proposal calls for boosting the CPSC's annual funding from $63 million to $100 million over four years, mandatory testing of all toys by independent labs, increasing the maximum penalty for companies not reporting safety problems from $1.8 million to $10 million, and reducing the time vendors have to report product hazards.

SCRAPBOOKS. There are all sorts of them. The Wall Street Journal reported on Dr. Arthur Toga, founder of the Laboratory of Neuro Imaging at UCLA. Ever since his daughter was 6 – she's now 20 – he's taken an MRI of her brain. There's nothing wrong with her, the WSJ reported; Toga just likes to watch her brain grow up.

PRODUCTS. One of Michaels ' Thanksgiving weekend doorbusters was a Cricut Complete Starter Set for $129.99.

RETAIL. The 11/23 edition of the Wall Street Journal described the efforts of recently elected French President Nicolas Sarkozy to change the French retail system. Retailers in France are currently so regulated that manufacturers, not retailers, basically determine what consumers will pay for their products, the WSJ reported.

PROMO. Knitting Daily, Interweave Press’ online community, pattern library, blog, and e-newsletter for knitting and fiber enthusiasts, is offering readers the chance to win $600 in shopping sprees in their favorite local yarn shops. To enter, consumers must visit www.knittingdaily.com/yarnspree and provide their contact info and the name of their favorite yarn shop. Three winners will be drawn at random and will win gift certificates to shop for free yarn, supplies and magazines. Knitting Daily Editor Sandi Wiseheart will announce the winners in January.

INTERNET. Another example of the new wave of crafters is "The Chick's Guide" at www.thechicksguide.org. There are clever, funky, retro projects including a number of them using, yes, duct tape. (This is not your grandmother's craft site.)

Magazines. BeadStyle magazine has a special issue, 365 Earrings, with a year's worth of products. Borders is selling a desk calendar with an earring project per day.

PBS. A new series, Quilting Arts, with host Patricia "Pokey" Bolton, will uplink Dec. 30 in the same time slot previously held by America Quilts Creatively. The new series is produced by KS Inc. Productions and is sponsored by Interweave Press, Husqvarna Viking, Coats and Clark/Westminster Fibers, EZ Quilting, Cedar Canyon Textiles, Hinterberg Design, Sulky of America, Epson America, The Electric Quilt Co., Embellishment Village, Rit Dye, Rowenta, The Warm Company, Contemporary Cloth, and Santa Barbara Quilting Retreats.

RETAIL. The Hobby Manufacturers Assn. published a retail business guide, Opening a Hobby Store…Important Information You Need to Know!, in conjunction with the National Retail Hobby Stores Assn. and Kalmbach Publishing. It is available to current hobby retailers who wish to educate their employees and to prospective dealers who want to open a hobby store. Opening a Hobby Store identifies key info for creating a business plan, managing a hobby store, plus sales and marketing tools and useful tips for entering the hobby industry. To order, call 973-283-9088 or visit www.hmahobby.org.

CLN STOCK INDEX: A.C. Moore:$15.87, down $0.58 ... Jo-Ann's: $16.46, down $2.01 ... Wal-Mart: $47.90, up $1.56 ... CLN Index: down 1.3% ... Dow Jones: 13,371.72, up 1.5%. (Note: All changes in price are since 11/16 and are exclusive of dividends.)

To see the latest listings by the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

Bubba and Junior were standing at the base of a flagpole, looking up. A blond lady walked by and asked what they were doing. "We're supposed to find the height of the flagpole," said Bubba, "but we don't have a ladder."

The woman took a wrench from her purse, loosened a few bolts, and laid the pole down. Then she took a tape measure from her pocket, took a measurement, announced, "Eighteen feet, six inches," and walked away.

Junior shook his head and laughed. "Ain't that just like a dumb blond? We ask for the height, and she gives us the length."

Bubba and Junior are now supervising the government's reconstruction of those New Orleans levees.

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xxx

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