Date: January 7, 2007
Vol. XII, No. 1

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: SO WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008? 

I was startled by the results of the CLN poll in which about two-thirds of the voters said their business was flat or declined last year. That's much lower than what they predicted the year would be like.

What happened? What can we do to make this year an improvement? We need to put our collective heads together on this. If your business increased, why? If your business declined, why? Everything you say will be off the record and "Name Withheld.."

To stimulate your thinking so 2008 will be a better year, the leaders of TNNA and CHA describe what they see as the challenges facing the industry in Business-Wise, and I have a similar piece below.

Email your thoughts to mike@clnonline.com.

Business-Wise. Leaders of the TNNA and CHA boards of directors, Marilyn Murphy and Jim Scatena, speak out on the challenges facing the industry in 2008.

"Vinny da Vendor". Junkitz shuts its doors and creditors are howling. U.S. bankruptcy laws are a bewildering jungle of requirements that don't seem to satisfy anyone. Here are some thoughts on what's wrong and the logic behind some of those "unfair" laws.

Category Reports. Need to know more about the Indie Craft movement, the motivation, the products and how they're used, and sources for more info? Craft Marketing Connections has a complete report, reprinted by permission.

Memory, Paper & Stamps. What is a Shop Hop? How does it work? Why did 97 scrapbook stores participate in a Shop Hop? How do you launch one? The answers are here.

Industry Research. Contact information on Scrapbooking.com's new study, 2007 Scrapbookers Report study.

Note: If it appears to be an "old" column, click on the "Refresh" or "Reload" button on your browser.

How to you think your business will fare this year? Better or worse? Whatever your industry-related business is, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column, or click HERE, to cast your vote.

Apparently last year was not particularly good and certainly not as good as CLN voters expected. Only 35.7% of voters said their business increased last year, while 42.6% reported their business had declined. The remaining 21.4% said business was flat.

That's in sharp contrast to what voters predicted a year ago. Twelve months ago 69.4% of voters in CLN's unscientific poll thought their business would increase in 2007. Only 6.1% foresaw their businesses in decline, while 24.2% thought business would be flat.

The season started with fairly strong sales, thanks to those day-after-Thanksgiving door-busters. Then sales were mediocre until the weekend-before-Christmas price cutting. Sales improved after Christmas (up 14% the last full week of December), as retailers slashed prices again to move out unsold merchandise.

End result? U.S. holiday retail sales rose 3.6%, at the lower end of expectations, Reuters reported. Online sales grew 19%, but that was the smallest year-to-year gain in five years.

After-Christmas sales were strong, but probably not margins. Business Week cited Macy's as an example: Last year post-Christmas merchandise was 20% off prices already discounted 40%. This year there was a 30% discount on merchandise already reduced by 50% – then consumers could save another 10% with a newspaper coupon. Meanwhile, Macy's expenses must have risen because of the stores' expanded hours.

In a post-Christmas Sunday ad insert, Linens N Things had this offer: buy a Black & Decker coffee maker, toaster oven, iron, blender, or hand vacuum for $29.99 and receive a $25 gift card.

As for profits, those should be known next month when the public retailers release their fourth-quarter/annual earnings reports.

Analysts point to high gas prices and the unsettled economy as the cause for the disappointing season, but there's another reason: this past season is the culmination of years of teaching consumers to wait for discounts.

The past year was a bad one for industry-related stocks. It appears that some investors, after seeing Michaels go private, thought the same would happen to A.C. Moore and Jo-Ann. That speculation drove the price of the stocks up, then down when the anticipated deals didn't happen. A.C. Moore's stock fell 36.5% during the year (12/29/06-12/28/07) and Jo-Ann fell 46.4%. Wal-Mart rose 2.9%, but the stock has been relatively flat the last time the stock split, Apr. 20, 1999. The CLN Index had its poorest year ever, dropping 21.2%.

The overall stock indices performed much better. The Dow gained 6.4% thanks to a very strong first half. Standard & Poors 500 rose 3.5% and the NASDAQ increased 9.8%. Martha Stewart's licensing programs (crafts, housing, department stores, sewing machines, etc.) and other divisions apparently didn't impress investors; her company stock fell 57.7%.

The outlook for 2008 is good, according to Laura Richardson, an analyst for BB&T Capital Markets. She cited A.C. Moore's and Jo-Ann's history of performing well in tough economic times. A.C. Moore is her top pick because there are more technology/infrastructure improvements in progress that should increase margins. "The impact could be particularly strong in late FY'08," Richardson wrote, "as A.C. Moore completes the rollout of two important merchandising systems, perpetual inventory and automated replenishment."

Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group listed Jo-Ann as a stock that should get a "January effect" boost (investors scooping up undervalued stocks at the beginning of the year), USA Today reported.

The views of the Iowa Democrats were fairly close to those of CLN readers who voted in our "primary" poll that occurred the first half of December. For the top choice, Barack Obama, CLN voters proved to be positively clairvoyant. Obama received 37.6% in Iowa, and 37.8% from CLN voters. The actual results: Obama, 37.6%; Edwards, 29.8%; Clinton, 29.5%; Richardson, 2.1%. ... CLN results: Obama, 37.8%; Clinton, 28.4%; Edwards, 18.9%, Biden, 9.5%; Bill Richardson, 4.1%; Dennis Kucinich, 1.4%.

Apparently CLN voters like Rudy Giuliani much more than Iowans do. The actual results: Huckabee, 34.4%; Romney, 25.4%; Thompson, 13.4%; McCain, 13.2%; Giuliani, 3%. ... CLN results: Giuliani, 25.7%; Huckabee, 22.9%; Romney, 18.6%; McCain, 14.3%. Ron Paul, 10.0%.

(Note: Interested to see how the candidates' views compare with yours on major issues of the day? Visit www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460, complete a short questionnaire, and the computer determines how closely each candidate reflects your views.)

Scrapbooking. It is essential that retailers and vendors work together to attract new customers. What's the first impression a novice receives when walking into a store or opening a magazine – that scrapbooking is fun, meaningful, easy, and inexpensive, or time-consuming, complicated, difficult, and costly? Meanwhile, the category must avoid alienating enthusiasts while appealing to potential novices.

Beads. If key vendors want independent bead shops to prosper, they need to stop selling to consumers at prices so low the shops can't compete. There are too many bead shows, vendors, magazines, and in some cases retailers; the glut divides the pie into too many pieces. The marketplace will eventually sort it out, but in the meantime....

Sewing. While Hobby Lobby, JoAnn, and independent fabric shops will benefit from the overall decrease in stores, the category could suffer from a dearth of publicity because it lacks a trade association to help the media publish positive reports. The absence of an association could also discourage bankers and potential investors.

Yarn. The ads in the latest issue of the impressive trade magazine, Yarn Market News, makes the issue look like a fashion magazine. The vendors' emphasis on fashion may work with existing knitters, but the projects look difficult, which could frighten away potential newcomers.

Imports. Having goods made in China may not be as easy and inexpensive as it once was, thanks to a) the toy scare; b) more rigorous testing requirements; c) talk that Chinese manufacturers may begin asking to be paid in euros; d) China slowly allowing the yuan to rise; and e) the government cutting back on rebates to manufacturers.

"The options in other parts of the world are developing more and more as China matures and has its problems along the way," said industry veteran Bill Shugarts, CEO of Tradewinds, a firm helping industry companies with Asian importing. "Many companies are 'hedging their bets' in a lot of ways and looking/working more and more in Vietnam, India, and even Africa."

Exports. The weak dollar makes U.S. products particularly attractive in other countries. This is a golden opportunity for U.S. manufacturers and for retailers in high-tourist areas.

Economy. Most economists look for a slowdown, if not a recession, in 2008. That could be an opportunity for the industry if we concentrate on showing cash-strapped consumers they can save money by using crafts to make gifts, embellish their existing wardrobes, preserve memories, and decorate their homes.

Politics. Democrats will probably increase their majorities in the House and Senate, due to the number of Republican incumbents who are retiring and therefore putting their seats "in play." In that case, look for legislation increasing the testing of imported products, sales tax on Internet sales, and possibly stiffer trade barriers. Whether those pieces of legislation become law may depend on the new President and his (or her) veto power.

Private Equity. Many firms bought into the industry when sales and profits were strong. But the consumer is like the tide. When there's a hot category, the tide rushes into our stores. Sometimes the tide ebbs, and owners unfamiliar with that process can make serious mistakes trying to force companies to meet pre-determined sales and profit goals.

Chain Stores. The eternal quest for increased profits can have long-term, adverse effects. Pressure vendors too hard and the result is shoddy products the consumer doesn't want, or it drives the vendors and their creativity out of the industry. Bypassing vendors to source the products directly loses the vendors' creativity.

(Thoughts on this? Is CLN off-base, missed some major challenges? Email your thoughts to CLN at mike@clnonline.com.)

Much has been written and spoken about the Indie craft movement, but the result had many in the industry wondering just how big/important a market it is. Apparently Business Week thinks the movement is large enough to warrant a two-page article in the Jan. 14 issue.

The article cited Etsy, an online marketplace where crafters sell their creations. In 2007 1.92 million items were sold for a total of $26.5 million. The site, www.etsy.com, has 50,000 active sellers and 600,000 registered members.

BW also cited Make magazine's second annual Maker Faire in San Mateo, CA, which attracted 45,000 people. Make is published by O'Reilly Media which also publishes CRAFT. The article also cited Hubert Burda Media, the German sewing giant, that re-launched its English-language website, BurdaStyle (www.burdastyle.com) which has been wildly popular since its re-launch in July.

To learn more about the Indie movement, click on Category Reports. The CHA show will also include a "demonar" on the trend, "The Indie Craft Revolution" Feb. 9, 3:00-5:00 pm, led by Natalie Zee Drieu, Sr. Editor of CRAFT magazine, one of the movement's leading publications. For more info, visit www.chashow.com.

Dimensions. (#3741, CHA). Will offer items from the recently released Feltworks and Spring Needlecrafts catalogs. www.dimensions-crafts.com.

F+W Publications. (#1751, CHA). New titles from the Krause division include Creating Lampwork Beads for Jewelry and Easy To Crochet Cute Clothes for Kids. www.krausebooks.com

Interweave.(#539, TNNA) Will preview its Spring line of books, enable buyers to listen to Knitting Out Loud audio books, and see the latest fashions from upcoming issues of Interweave Knits, Interweave Crochet, Knitscene, and PieceWork magazines. Some Interweave authors will be signing books at Westminster (#818), Pick Up Sticks (#2226), and Unicorn Books & Crafts (#2053). See a schedule at the booth for times.

Jack Dempsey Needle Art. (#2204, CHA). A new catalog and variety of new designs for beginner embroidery kits, pillowcases, quilt squares, table runners and toppers, etc. www.jdneedleart.com.

Stampington. (#1787, CHA). A new annual publication, artists' caf้, is a 150-work compilation of the best of Somerset art and design. www.stampington.com.

Widget Products. (#607 CHA) Jerry Payton's company is offering an endcap with the company's Crochet Lite, Scissor Lite, Short Knit Lite, and Long Knit Lite products, plus batteries. www.widgetproducts.net.

Yarn Market News (#1032, TNNA). The magazine will be handing out information about its YMN Smart Business Conference to be held in Chicago in March. www.yarnmarketnews.com.

(Note to vendors: If you're exhibiting at CHA, send CLN a short description, the URL, and your booth number. Let's give buyers an opportunity to do a little homework before the show, as they compile their "booths to visit" list. Email mike@clnonline.com.)

I liked this quote from your article: "As science's ability to actually relieve patients' suffering improved, medicine became colder, more impersonal. Machines replaced the consoling words and comforting hands. But those machines are expensive."

I see an ironic parallel to this in the scrapbooking industry. As this industry has quickly evolved, it has become colder and more impersonal. The local scrapbook stores and home parties are a thing of the past (at least in my area). Big-box chain stores have replaced them. The service is dull and the store aisles monotonous at best. These stores are expensive, too. Sadly, I don’t think they are fully equipped with resuscitation equipment and the resources it is going to take to make a full recovery. I hope they prove me wrong. – Stacy Armstrong (Note: Stacy's wonderful essay, "Why I Scrapbook," is still in Kate's Collage.)

In my opinion the word Challenge means opportunity! Yes, our economic issues facing all Americans will be challenging and belt-tightening will be a must. When I say opportunity I believe if our industries want to stay right side up, we need Creativity, Newness, Freshness, and lots more Education to the consumers on how fun our industry can be for them.

Nobody likes change, but change is Newness, Freshness, and consumers want to have fun with their hobbies and leisure time. Some manufactures hold back on new products during a time of economic slowness, but in my opinion that's incorrect. New products, new designs, new colors, is what drives any industry.

I have a saying at Clover, "When the business gets tough we get the factory making new products. We have to help the retailers keep the consumer coming to their shops and newness and freshness and change is what in my opinion will help keep the needle arts industry staying the course. – Jan Carr, Clover Needlework (Note: To read more on the coming challenges, click on Business-Wise.)

1. Years ago Rita Weiss, formerly of ASN Publishing said, "When the industry started, the manufacturers held all the power. Now retailers hold it all. But someday the consumer will hold the power."

Rita, I think that day may be here. Consumers told us during the holiday season, "I won't buy it if it's not on sale." "You better spend money to test the products to make sure they're safe." "I can shop online or via television just as easily as going into your store."

2. This issue marks the end of CLN Index of industry-related stocks. It started in 1989 in Craftrends as a way of showing a glimpse of the industry's health, or at least Wall Street's perception of the industry's fortunes. But today there just aren't enough public retailers left to make the Index relevant. At one time there were approximately 16 retailers on the Index (House of Fabrics, Rag Shop, Michaels, Fabricland, Ben Franklin, Frank's Nursery, Northwest Fabric, Cloth World, etc.) The Index shrank as retailers closed their doors, were bought and absorbed by other retailers, or went private.

Many public manufacturers produce products for the industry, but their craft divisions are such a small fraction of the conglomerates' overall business that tracking their stock would not be a sign of the industry's health.

DEADLINE. Jan. 9 is the deadline for CHA Winter Show exhibitors to enter new products in the Innovations Showcase. Email Semo Sennas at ssennas@craftandhobby.org or call 201-794-1133, ext. 218. ... Jan. 17 is the deadline for the GES Early Discount. ... Jan 18 is the deadline for CHA Press News Bulletin listing.

SEMINARS. Vendors complain trade associations aren't educating the retailers well enough. The associations respond by offering a plethora of business seminars, but sometimes the attendance isn't so good. "You can lead a horse to water...." Now CHA is teaming up with certain manufacturers with this offer: Members completing at least four of nine selected seminars will receive a "Certificate of Retailing Excellence" enabling them to receive special discounts offered by partnering manufacturers. For a list of the seminars, visit www.chashow.org and click on "Education & Special Events," then "New Education Programs."

EXPERTS. Every CHA member attending the show can have a free, one-on-one, 30-minute consultation with one of the expert speakers CHA has brought in for seminars. A business that needs help with web design, marketing, niche marketing, art licensing, merchandising and store design, customer service, retail sales, etc. can receive free advice. Sign up begins Sun., Feb. 10 at 9:00 am. First-come, first-served.

BOOTHS. Although the following companies now share one corporate parent, they will have separate booths. Wilton Cake Decorating & Seasonal, #4117 ... Wilton Wedding, #4017 ... Dimensions, #3741 ... EK Success, #4049 ... Just Jinger, #3957 ... #K & Company, 3749 & 3949.

BUYERS. Rich Kizer and Georganne Bender (KIZER & BENDER Speaking!) have written an excellent series, "How to Increase Your Success at Trade Shows" which is posted on their blog at www.kizerandbender.blogspot.com. They will conduct a seminar at CHA, "The Other 88%: Creating NEW Scrapbookers!" 2:00 - 3:00 pm Sun. Feb. 10.

BOOKS. Women & Money is #4 on the Wall Street Journal's business best-seller list. It's written by Suze Orman, the keynote speaker at the CHA show in February in Anaheim.

DESIGN. The License & Design section, more than double the size of the 2007 version, is sold out.

MAKE-IT/TAKE-IT. There will be a unique one at CHA. Walnut Hollowฎ (#2917), LuminArte™ ( #2755) and Stampington & Co.ฎ (#1787) will sponsor a "progressive" make-it/take-it that will offer participants an opportunity to sample products from each company and create a unique project. Participants will begin at LuminArte and eventually progress to Walnut Hollow where the project will be completed.

INFO. For complete details about the show, Feb. 9-13, visit www.chashow.org.

BANKRUPTCY. Junkitz filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy (liquidation) and is closed. Owners Stacey and Kenny Panassidi have joined Inque Boutique, a relatively new company that was launched last summer.

TNNA. The National NeedleArt Assn. revamped/improved its website at www.tnna.org and is working on sites for the Needlepoint and the Counted Thread & Embroidery groups, similar to the Yarn group's site. The results of a new industry survey will be released at the all-member meeting on Sun., Jan.13, 8:00 am, during the Long Beach show. The show will include a clever idea, an expanded Sample It feature, in which retailers can buy and bring home a sample of the order from a vendor, to give customers back home a sneak peak of what's on order.

PATTERNS. KnittingDaily.com's #1 downloaded pattern in 2007 was "Modern Quilt Wrap" designed by Mags Kandis for Folk Style (Interweave, 2007) in Rowan Kidsilk Haze. It's a wrap/oversize scarf loosely based on the traditional Log Cabin quilt block and worked square by square. ... BeadingDaily.com's top down loaded pattern was "Snowflake Ornament" designed by Robin Cowart. It produces a netted snowflake for decorating gifts with it, dangled on a small suction cup with a hook in a window, or hung it on a Christmas tree.

QUOTATION. "A day in the life of a retail manager would be a nightmare job for a lot of people." – Kathy Mance, VP of the National Retail Federation Foundation, which helps retailers train and recruit employees and managers. (USA Today)

TV. The 12th series of Scrapbook Memories uplinks to PBS stations Jan. 13, sponsored by Epson, Adobe, Scrapper's Guide, Big Picture Scrapbooking, Sakura, BasicGrey, Digital Scrapbook Memories, Westrim, QuiKutz, Xyron, Hot Off The Press, ZoomAlbum, and Dreamweaver Stencils. ... The 5th series of Bake Decorate Celebrate! uplinks Feb. 17. It's produced by KS, Inc. Productions and Wilton Industries and sponsored in part by KraftMaid and KitchenAid. Both series are produced by KS, Inc. Productions.

ROLODEX. JewelCraft has moved to 232 S. Van Brunt St., Englewood, NJ 07631. Call 201-816-8004; fax 201-816-0770; email: dans@jewelcraft.biz; visit www.jewelcraft.biz.

SCHOOLS. Now it's the Louisiana State University student newspaper reporting on the resurgence of knitting among young people. "In the past few years, especially during the school year, we have had a lot of people, mostly early 20s, come in and buy knitting stuff," Jennifer Garcia of the local Hobby Lobby told the paper.

WILTON PROMOTIONS. Brent Powell to VP Wal-Mart Team. ... Karen Swinford to Sr. VP, Wilton Industries-Housewares. ... David Bachelor to Director, Sales-Housewares ... Wendy Carney to Director, National Accounts-Craft & Mass. ... Jim Teml to VP Sales, Wilton Ent.

PEOPLE. Dixon Ticonderoga appointed Donald Currie CEO. Currie reports to Massimo Candela, CEO of Dixon’s parent company, FILA S.p.A. in Milan, Italy.

QUOTATIONS. From a Reuters report on the recent, bustling Canton Trade Fair, China's largest export trade show: "If you pay a good amount, then they give you good quality. But if you pay a cheap price, get a discount, they will give you bad quality," – Rupesh Parekh, a buyer for a hardware company in Mumbai ... "It all depends on how much the customer is paying. That determines what materials go into the product." – Wendy Wang, a manager at the Hebei Machinery Import And Export Corp.

RECYCLE. Office Depot has a "Tech Recycling Service" at the company's 1,100+ stores. Consumers can purchase a Tech Recycling Box for $5, $10, or $15, which they fill with acceptable items – monitors, small tv's, printers, etc. – then return the filled box to the store.

CLN STOCK INDEX: A.C. Moore: $11.69, down $0.91 ... Jo-Ann's: $9.96, down $3.40 ... Wal-Mart: $45.72, down $1.91 ... CLN Index: down 8.3% ... Dow Jones:12,800.18, down 4.0%. (Note: All changes in price are since 1/4 and are exclusive of dividends.)

(Note: CLN has launched a new series of profiles on service suppliers who specialize in our industry. CLN will run one per issue, and place the published profiles in a "Service Supplier" archive. The eventual result is a complete list of companies offering such services as advertising, mergers/acquisitions, public relations, marketing, product development, etc.)

The Creative Network, Inc. (TCN) is the Craft and hobby industry's key personnel and executive recruiting firm that was founded by industry veteran Gail Czech 15+ years ago. Since then TCN has expanded into the stationery, toy, publishing, home d้cor, office products, and related industries. TCN specializes in finding highly skilled, qualified candidates for companies in those industries.

"Every TCN search assignment is unique," Gail said. "There is no one-size-fits-all solution. We take pride in our ability to acquire a deep understanding of our client companies' needs, requirements, and industry in order to ensure a successful search."

The search process includes a) understand the client's needs and issues; b) organize/plan the search campaign/process; c) source candidates; d) qualify candidates based on client's requirements; e) screen and interview; f) present short list for phone and face-to-face interviews; g) review and make recommendations; h) check references; i) present, negotiate, and close offers on behalf of the clients.

TNC assures complete confidentiality for clients and candidates, and is committed to "after-placement" communications with client companies and placed candidates to ensure a positive long-term relationship.

Additional services include a bi-monthly e-letter (focusing on employment trends and issues); assistance with relocation services; cost-of-living comparisons (upon request); credit and criminal reference checks (nominal fee); pre-screen testing (nominal fee); contract employees.

TCN is a member of the National Personnel Assn., a group of national and international recruiting firms. In addition, TCN is a founding member of Marketing Recruiters' Network (MRN), a national organization of search firms with significant focus in marketing disciplines and sales management in consumer packaged goods and other consumer products.

Personnel. Gail Czech, Founder/President. Gail has been in the craft industry for 30+ years, serving on numerous industry committees and as Chair of the board of ACCI. She also served on the CHA board and is President of MRN. gail@creativenetworkinc.com ... Jessica Goursolas, VP, is a 20+-year industry veteran and served in various positions for SHOPA. jessica@creativenetworkinc.com ... Nancy Ford, Sr. Recruiter nancyf@creativenetworkinginc.com ... Janie Powell, Recruiter janiep@creativenetworkinc.com ... Megan Boucher, Office Manager.

Rolodex. The Creative Network, Inc., 1325 SE Tech Center Dr., Ste. 190, Vancouver, WA 98683. Call 360-604-0802; visit www.creativenetworkinc.com.

To see the latest listings, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

1. Never slap a man who's chewing tobacco.

2. Never kick a cow chip on a hot day.

3. There are two theories to arguing with a woman; neither works.

4. Never miss a good chance to shut up.

5. Always drink upstream from the herd.

6. If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

7. The quickest way to double your money is to fold it and put it back in your pocket.

8. There are three kinds of men: The ones who learn by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence and find out for themselves.

9. Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.

10. If you're riding ahead of the herd, take a look back every now and then to make sure it's still there.

11. Lettin' the cat outta the bag is a whole lot easier'n puttin' it back.

12. After eating a bull, a mountain lion felt so good he started roaring. He kept it up until a hunter came along and shot him. The moral: When you're full of bull, keep your mouth shut.

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xxx

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