Date: April 21, 2008
Vol. XII, No. 8

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: U.S. CHINESE RELATIONS 

Recently I heard the Chinese Ambassador to the U.S, Zhou Wenzhong, address the Peoria, IL Rotary Club. He was in town because it's the headquarters of Caterpillar Inc., one of the country's largest, most successful manufacturers, producing bulldozers, tractors, mining equipment, etc. Caterpillar and China are doing enormous amounts of business these days. The fact that he came to Peoria while the uproar over the Olympic torch was going on in San Francisco is an indication of the importance China places on its relationship with Caterpillar.

The entire speech is published, unedited, in Kate's Collage. Mr. Wenzhong was very polite, gracious, and well spoken. The key points I took from the speech:

1. It has been just 30 years since China and the U.S. established diplomatic relations, and China's growth since then is absolutely astonishing.

2. There are 50+ pieces of legislation in Congress which Mr. Wenzhong labeled as "protectionist"; he does not want to see them signed into law. He was polite, but firm.

3. He was equally firm that the U.S. abide by past agreements and not support any Taiwan independence movement.

4. Mr. Wenzhong said, "China takes U.S. trade concerns very seriously. We will continue to adopt vigorous measures to buy more from the United States, strengthen IPR protection, improve the currency exchange rate formulation mechanism, and ensure the quality and safety of Chinese products."

Kate's Collage. The text of a recent speech given by the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. to the Rotary Club of Peoria. Data illustrating astonishing growth, a pledge to work on trade issues, and two polite warnings.

Also Online. If you haven't read them, Business-Wise has Barbara Matthiessen's "What We Have Here Is a Failure To Communicate" ... "Benny Da Buyer" explains why some retailers should change their buying habits ... Memory, Paper & Stamps is a conversation on the state of scrapbooking with retailer Charlotte Roby ... Category Reports describes the Indie craft movement ... Designing Perspectives includes more thoughts on fair pay for designers.

To read the columns, click on the titles in the left column.

The media and the political campaigns cite the poor state of public education in the U.S: a high school dropout rate of 30% and half the graduates are unfit for any business or industry paying more than minimum wage. But has this problem affected your business? Are you able to hire employees who are educated well enough to function effectively? Or do you have to spend what seems to be an inordinate amount of time training them? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

Exactly half the voters in CLN's unscientific poll believe make-it/take-its and in-store demos are well worth the effort, and another 34.4% aren't that positive, but still believe they are worth the investment in time and money. Only 9.4% believe the benefits only equal the investment, and 6.3% are not certain one way or another.

But are they more effective, a better investment than classes? "No," said 56.3% of the voters. Only 28.1% believe they are a better investment, while 15.6% were not sure.

Hancock and General Electric Capital Corp. signed a financing commitment letter whereby GE Capital provides Hancock with a revolving line of credit up to $100,000,000. Once executed, the "Revolver" will have a 60-month term, provided the deal is closed by Aug. 29. The credit line is one step further down the path of emerging from bankruptcy. The company said it plans to file a reorganization plan in the near future and, with court approval, exit bankruptcy 30-60 days later.

Hancock also filed its 2007 10-K which reported sales and earnings for the fiscal year ended Feb. 2. Net sales from continuing operations fell 4.6% to $276 million, but same-store sales, excluding liquidated stores, rose 0.5%. Loss from continuing operations was $24.3 million, a 21% improvement from the previous year.

EBITDA (a measure of cash flow) from continuing operations before reorganization expenses was a profit of $815,000 compared to a loss of $26.3 million in fiscal 2006.

The fiscal year included 52 weeks, compared to 53 weeks the previous year. Diluted loss/share from continuing operations was $1.28, a 22% improvement. That includes charges of $0.79 for approximately $14.9 million of reorganization costs associated with the bankruptcy proceedings and $0.05 for approximately $1 million of tax expense related to the revised estimate of a state tax settlement. Diluted loss/share from continuing operations before reorganization expenses was $0.49, a 70% improvement.

Gross margin improved to 42.9% from 39.7% , and selling, general and administrative expenses decreased to $117.8 million (42.6% of sales) from $141.3 million (48.8% of sales).

During the year, Hancock closed 134 stores, relocated 2, and remodeled 6 to its new prototype. This year the company plans to remodel 89 stores and relocate 12. To see the complete Form 10-K, visit www.hancockfabrics.com; scroll to the bottom of the page and click on "Investors," then "SEC Filings."

In an effort to reduce the air pollution during the Olympics, the Chinese government will shut down all polluting factories within a 200 kilometer radius of Beijing for nine weeks. The closures will begin June 1. The affected provinces include Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong.

While many of the affected plants do not produce industry-related products, some, such as coal-fired power plants, produce energy. That could cause additional power shortages in the summer, during which there are periodic shortages in non-Olympic years.

Transportation from factories to ports could also be affected due to restrictions on traffic in major cities and suburbs.

The poor economy and the early Easter resulted in sluggish retail sales in March. Consumers stuck to basics and curtailed much spending of discretionary income. Some discounters did comparatively well, as expected, but some others did not.

Wal-Mart's U.S. same-store sales rose 0.9%, thanks to strength in groceries, drugs, and electronics. That was slightly below analysts' estimates, but better than many other retailers. Bad weather hurt apparel sales and the home department was soft. The company raised its guidance for April to a same-store sales gain of 1-3% from flat-2%, and earnings/share to $0.74-$0.76 from $0.70-$0.74, due to better inventory management.

March same-store sales results from a sampling of retailers: Costco, +7.0% ... BJ's Wholesale, +6.0% ... Sam's Club, -0.7% ... Target, -4.4% ... Family Dollar, -4.4% ... Limited Brands, -8.0% ... Pacific Sunwear, -8.0% ... Abercrombie & Fitch, -10.0% ... Wet Seal, -10.8% ... J.C. Penney, -12.3% ... Kohl's, -15.5% ... Gap, -18.0%.

National Retail Federation Chief Economist Rosalind Wells said, "With the earliest Easter in 95 years, the calendar shift will likely impact April sales as well. In order to get a true picture of retail performance, we will need to look at both March and April sales combined."

In Business-Wise, designer Barbara Matthiessen complained about the industry supplying consumers with little more than product, and CLN asked subscribers to respond. Here is a summary of the responses, which ultimately raise the chicken-or-the-egg question:

Do sales decline because of lack of support or simple waning consumer interest? Whichever, once the process starts, retailers often cut prices to boost sales; that results in vendors and storeowners having lower margins to support the category with classes, project sheets, and other proven merchandising strategies. Meanwhile, publishers move to other categories so the consumer sees fewer projects to inspire her. The results:

Boring stores. Most stores become warehouses of product – rack after rack of "stuff" with little or no inspiration. What should the consumer do with it? Merchandising is not the same as price cutting. Putting a product on sale is what a retailer does when he can't think of any other way to sell it. Where are the made-ups and the sales and educational aids? Why have their numbers declined so?

Lack of margin. We'll use painting as an example. Painting is not the dominant industry force it once was. It's a category that often requires some basic instruction and inspiration to turn a novice into an enthusiast. When it was dominant, Delta sponsored the "Delta Force," a group of painters traveling the country teaching painting. There were hundreds of instruction books, and retailers offered plenty of classes and project sheets. Painting thrived.

Painting was a fundamental building block for successful craft stores for two reasons. Painters, especially decorative painters, believe their next painting will be better, so they keep painting, and they buy a huge number of products. Years ago Crayola (formerly Binney & Smith) conducted a study of decorative painters and found that, while they only comprised 13% of the consumers who bought acrylic paint, they purchased 52% of all the paint.

Recently Michaels had its store brand acrylic paint on sale, three two-ounce bottles for $1. No doubt other chains will offer similar deals. Clearly neither Michaels nor the manufacturer has any margin to offer classes, teachers, project sheets, and all the things that inspire consumers to want to learn to paint.

A walk down the painting aisle in many stores today reveals that there's no explanation of why one paint costs more than another, no color comparison chart, no instructions on when to use oils or acrylics or the difference between synthetic and natural brushes.

But the paint is cheap. As one industry analyst told CLN, "Sometimes the industry gives the consumer a better deal than she asked for."

Granted, cash-strapped consumers are more price conscious than ever, but a low price means nothing to an uninspired crafter or a novice who doesn't know what to do with a product.

Years ago in the pre-chain era, plastic canvas was a dominant category. A huge price war ensued and eventually the category faded. Why? "No one was making any money, despite the sales," a major distributor said. "Why work at something if you don't make any money?"

Without margin, there is no motivation. As one manufacturer told CLN, "The process of bringing a new product to life, getting editorial, finding designers willing to work with a new company and design projects, etc., is very difficult. Getting into the big-box stores and making money at it is difficult, not to mention the lost profits by being knocked off. Take those problems and the question becomes, 'Why bother?'"

(Note: Care to add to the discussion? Email your thoughts, on or off the record, to mike@clnonline.com.)

Linens 'n Things staved off an expected bankruptcy filing until at least May 15. The chain has about 590 stores in 46 states and employs 17,000 people. It was bought by the private equity firm Apollo Management LP for $1.3 billion in February 2006. In the last fiscal year it lost $242 million on sales of $2.79 billion, and apparently could not generate enough cash flow to meet its debt payments.

In a front page article in the 4/15 issue, the New York Times cited recent bankruptcies by chains such as Levitz, Wickes, Domain, and Bombay (furniture); Fortunoff (housewares); and Sharper Image (gadgets). Retailers scaling back or delaying expansion include J. C. Penney, Lowe’s, and Office Depot. Chains closing outlets include Charming Shoppes (Lane Bryant and Fashion Bug), Wilsons, Foot Locker, Zales, Ann Taylor, and Pacific Sunwear.

Meanwhile CoStar, a commercial real estate publication, reported Circuit City is on the auction block with Blockbuster the likely buyer; the jewelry chain Friedman's is liquidating 377 stores; 84 Lumber is closing another 30 stores; and Pier 1 is shutting down another 25.

The Times wrote that the problem is two-fold: A. " ... spending on food and gasoline is crowding out other purchases, leaving people with less to spend on furniture, clothing, and electronics. Consequently, chains specializing in those goods are proving vulnerable." B. Because of the recent credit/housing crunch, banks are much more hesitant to lend money to retailers with cash flow problems.

Recent issues of CLN have detailed the rising costs of doing business in China, forcing some Chinese manufacturers to raise their prices or move to countries such as Vietnam. Now the New York Times has reported the inflation problem has spread throughout Asia. That causes a two-fold problem for U.S. companies and their customers: Asian vendors are raising prices to pass along at least some of their increased costs, and the weakening dollar buys less.

Some data cited by the Times: 1. In Vietnam, prices have increased 19.4% from March 2007 to March 2008. 2. A Bureau of Labor Statistics index of the average prices for imports of manufactured goods from developing countries rose 5.6% in February from the same month a year ago. 3. The annual inflation rate in China is now almost 9%. 4. The Philippines' inflation rate at the consumer level had doubled in the last five months; it was up 6.4% in March over the same month a year ago. 5. The weekly inflation at the wholesale level in India rose to 7% in the week ended March 22, up from 3.1% last October.

Jo-Ann filed its annual Form 10-K report with the Securities and Exchange Commission. To read it, visit www.joann.com; scroll to the bottom of the page and click on "Investor Relations," then "SEC Filings" or "Financial Reports." (Note: the sales/earnings data were reported in the Mar. 17 issue of CLN, which is available in the CLN Archives.)

Among the wealth of interesting data, a few highlights: Jo-Ann's top supplier (unnamed) represents approximately 3% of the company's annual purchase volume, and the top 10 vendors represent about 23% of the total volume. Jo-Ann buys from about 575 suppliers; the top 128 represent 80+% of the purchasing volume.

Approximately 57% of net sales occurred in the third and fourth quarters, about 31% in the fourth quarter alone. Jo-Ann employs approximately 21,707 full and part-time people, 733 at the store support center in Hudson, OH.

The chain purchases approximately one-third of its products directly from manufacturers in foreign countries, primarily in Asia, and many its domestic suppliers do, too.

Quotation: "[Jo-Ann's] inability or the inability of our vendors to develop and introduce new products that interest our customers also could adversely affect our operating results."

Wall Street is impressed with Jo-Ann these days. Wedbush Morgan Securities raised its price target for Jo-Ann from $13 to $15.50 and reaffirmed its Hold rating. Soleil Securities Group reiterated its Buy rating, saying the retailer could exceed its fiscal 2009 guidance range, which was mostly below Wall Street's estimates. Jo-Ann had forecast profit of 70-85 cents/share for the fiscal year.

Stats from CHA's National Craft Month (NCM) promotion in March: 100+ articles in newspapers with a combined circulation of 124 million ... Blogs and other Internet sites wrote about NCM to another 40 million consumers ... A satellite tour with Terri O aired on USA, Bravo, TBS, TNT, and on local stations in 39 markets to 1.2+ million viewers ... An audio news release and radio interviews ran on 914 radio stations to 35+ million listeners. Result? More than 126 thousand visitors to CHA's consumer website, www.craftplace.org, for ideas and to search for their local craft store.

The products used in the NCM effort were from Artytart, Beadery, DecoArt, Duncan, Expo Int., Janlynn, JudiKins, Kandi Corp., Museables, Simply Swank, Walnut Hollow, and Wiley Publishing. For a member company to be considered for future CHA publicity opportunities, send the in-house contact and product or service expertise to Victor Domine, Public Relations Manager, at vdomine@craftandhobby.org.

The keynote speaker will be Jean Chatzky, editor-at-large of Money magazine and financial editor of NBC's Today show. She writes a weekly syndicated newspaper column and is the author of four books on personal finance, including the bestseller, Pay It Down: From Debt to Wealth on $10 a Day. Her latest book is Make Money, Not Excuses. The speech will be Thurs., July 17, 6:30-7:30 pm.

The theme of the show is "KIDS CRAFTING: Inspiring Growth and Creativity," and will include a "Kids Creation Station" featuring manufacturer end-user projects and a "Designer Kids Crafting Display," highlighting the innovative skills of CHA designer members. CHA is also developing dozens of seminars, workshops, and events designed to underscore the importance of addressing kid-related crafts. Exhibitors: To participate in the "Kids Creation Station, visit www.craftshow.org, click on "Exhibitors," then "Kids Creation Station." The deadline is May 30.

The show is July 18-20 (with education beginning on the 17th) in Rosemont, IL. For info, visit www.craftandhobby.org. Online registration will begin in mid-May.

The "Indie" is different from the traditional craft consumer. She is more concerned with recycling and personalizing than re-creating a perfect copy of a made-up or a designer/author's finished project. To see a classic example of the Indie craft movement, attend the Swap-O-Rama's that are held throughout the country. The next is Apr. 27, 2-7 pm, at New York University's Helen and Martin Kimmel Building, 9th floor. Attendees pay $10 and donate a bag of clean, unwanted clothing. They choose other people's donated clothing, then attend workshops on how to alter and personalize the items.

There are DIY stations where attendees can learn how to create out of "textile reuse," sewing stations where local designers teach clothing tricks, onsite silk screeners and stencilers with original designs, and local designers who show off their work in the Swap-O-Rama-Rama reuse fashion show. (The sewing machines are supplied by Janome – www.janome.com.)

Attendees can take as much clothing as they want. Any leftover clothing is donated to a local women's shelter.

For more info, visit www.swaporamarama.org. To see photos of previous Swap-O-Rama's, visit http://gaiatreehouse.com/autumn2006pics/autumn2006pics.html and http://gaiatreehouse.com/swapwinter2006/swapwinter2006.html.

(Note: To learn more about the Indie craft movement, click on Category Reports in the left-hand column to read Cindy Groom Harry's report on Indies.)

CHA has produced a wealth of research data on the activities, buying habits, and mindset of current and potential industry consumers. The studies are available at www.craftandhobby.org in the Research section and are free to CHA members. Here's a sampling of information that can affect the strategy for your business.

1. For specialty stores considering offering a broader inventory: Scrapbookers also participate in a wide variety of other crafts, particularly cardmaking and home dec sewing/painting, according to the Scrapbooking Attitude & Usage Study.

2. For designers and new product developers: Men comprise a surprisingly large segment of the "Heavy" scrapbookers.

3. For marketing execs: Magazines continue to be the most popular source of ideas and projects, according to the CHA Attitude Usage Study.

4. For everyone: Price was far and away the most important factor when making a purchasing decision, according to the CHA Attitude & Usage Study. Price was listed by 41% of the respondents, followed by Selection (16%) and Quality (15%).

5. For retailers: Consumers who attend classes comprise only 9% of the craft population, but they spend almost twice as much/year, $748, as crafters who don't attend classes.

CHA studies include the updated-quarterly Craft Attitude & Usage Study, the Scrapbook Attitude & Usage Study, and studies of Hispanic, African-American, and Asian consumers.

It's worth looking at this research to see which data can influence your business decisions.

I’ve been selling to both the craft and quilting industries for more than 25 years – to independents, distributors, and international customers. Regarding quilting:

We are told that the consumer wants quick and cheap. Quilting is neither quick nor cheap, neither is jewelry making. Quilters want quality fabrics because if they put in the time, they want it to last. They will gladly pay a little (sometimes a lot) extra per yard for fabric in their local quilt shop because it is not available anywhere else. That shop also offers a friendly, knowledgeable staff, a huge selection of fabrics and related items, and an excellent class schedule. It is a warm, fun, friendly, inviting place to go and even hang out. Regular customers are often greeted by name. When was the last time that happened in a chain store?

There are manufacturers in quilting who advertise, and are PROUD to say, "We sell to independents only." They won’t sell to chain stores. They supply high quality goods and have money for innovation and education programs. Result? Independent quilt shops are thriving. There are an increasing number of quilting oriented magazines, too.

There are two Quilt Markets every year, each with increasing attendance and some very happy exhibitors. These are also the most beautiful trade shows you can attend because of the wonderful quilt exhibits. Talk about inspiration!

Quilting is alive, growing, vibrant, and NOT your grandmother’s quilt, although I think my grandmother, a quilter who taught me, would have loved where quilting is going. And, yes, traditional quilters are still a very viable, and respected, part of the quilting world.

Yet craft manufacturers all live and die by what the majors want (at the cheapest price). Hmmm.... – Name Withheld

1. If any retailer or company is brave enough to sponsor a scrapbook contest after the recent brouhaha over past contests, what about this as a theme, from Sean O'Casey, the Irish playwright: "The hallway of every man's life is paced with pictures; pictures gay and pictures gloomy, all useful, for if we be wise, we can learn from them a richer and braver way to live."

2. Does it strike anyone else but me as ironic that, as the chains start to do more direct importing themselves, inflation grows worse in Asia than in the U.S., and now the Olympic factory shut-down may complicate importing even more?

RATINGS. Standard & Poor's Ratings revised its outlook on Michaels to Stable from Positive, citing the projection that the company will not be able to achieve credit metrics appropriate for a higher rating category after a weaker-than-expected operating performance in the fourth quarter of financial year 2007, Thomson Financial reported.

BASEBALL. TNNA's Stitch 'N Pitch program is in full swing again this year (25+ major league teams), and is now expanding to minor league teams. To run a Stitch 'N Pitch event in your area, there is a free pamphlet, Stitch N' Pitch Minor League Baseball, that can be downloaded from the TNNA site. Visit www.tnna.org, click on the baseball logo, then scroll down to the bottom. In 2007, 15,000+ fans attend the events which were reported by the New York Times, Washington Post, Sports Illustrated, and the Associated Press. The website, www.stitchnpitch.com, has had 2+ million hits.

RECALLS. Michaels recalled about 310,000 pens due to violation of lead paint standard. The products are Flower Writers, Christmas Writers, Easter Writers, and Spooky Writers seasonal writing pens. The Chinese-made pens were sold exclusively at Michaels retail stores from last August through March for about $1. No injuries have been reported. ... Wal-Mart recalling about 12,000 Chinese-made Hip Charm key chains because of excess lead in the charms. They were sold from April 2005 through April 2008 for about $6.

MEDIA. Interweave Press launched a free e-book, The Best of Interweave Knits: The Readers’ Choice Awards Collection, at KnittingDaily.com. Last year, to celebrate the 10th anniversary of Interweave Knits, the magazine’s editors picked their favorite designs and published them in the best-selling book, The Best of Interweave Knits: Our Favorite Designs from the First 10 Years. Then the editors asked readers to nominate their favorite designs published in Interweave Knits between 1997 and spring 2007. Thousands of designs were nominated and, after a vote of the top 10 earlier this year on KnittingDaily.com, the winners were published in the e-book, which can be downloaded through May 14 at www.knittingdaily.com. The designers with the winning projects are Evelyn Clark ("Swallowtail Shawl"); Kate Gilbert ("Sunrise Circle Jacket"); Norah Gaughan ("Tweedy Aran Cardigan" and "Nantucket Jacket"); and Stefanie Japel ("Cable-Down Raglan").

HOME DEC. Dow Chemical is offering a free booklet, Great Décor in a Flash – Without a Lot of Cash!, that can be downloaded at www.styrofoamstyle.com. The projects show how to create custom wall art, window treatments, candle cubes, and topiaries using readily available materials such as fabric, paper, paint, ribbon, glue, and Styrofoam™ brand foam with step-by-step instructions and materials lists.

QUILTING. C&T Publishing will sponsor the new $2,000 Future of Quilting award at the Int. Quilt Assn.'s fall show, Quilts: a World of Beauty. It will be presented to a quilter age 35 or under whose quilt and overall quilting work show great promise for the future. C&T will also sponsor the show's Digital Imagery prize and underwrite the show's digital imagery category, which encompasses quilts that focus on images created with computers, digital cameras, or other digital technology. Visit www.ctpub.com for news and new book releases.

CORRECTION. CLN incorrectly listed the fax number for Bob Ferguson, chair of the CHA Nominating Committee. To nominate someone for the CHA board of directors, members can download the board nomination form by visiting the "Members Only" section of www.craftandhobby.org or request a copy by calling 201-835-1206 or emailing memberservices@craftandhobby.org. The deadline is June 1. The completed form should be sent to Bob at Ferguson Merchandising, 15756 Redmond Way, Redmond, WA 98052-3830. The correct fax number is 425-869-5209; or email the form to bob@craftsandframes.com.

GLITTER. In the previous issue, CLN reported on the planned demonstration at Ellen DeGeneres' tv studio to educate her about the value of glitter. DeGeneres had previously complained about glitter in an interview with Hillary Clinton. The event was a huge success, organizers said. To read about it and see photos, visit the blog of Kathy Cano-Murillo (the "Crafty Chica") and scroll down to April 8.

REPS WANTED. National paint company is looking for independent reps for the southeast, west coast and upper northwest territories. For info, email Mark Lee at markhlee@mac.com or call 317-270-0836.

STOCKS. A.C. Moore: $6.60, down $0.07 ... Jo-Ann's: $18.47, up $1.81 ... Wal-Mart: $56.31, up $1.91 ... Dow Jones: 12,849.36, up 1.9%. (Note: All changes in price are since 4/4 and are exclusive of dividends.)

To see the latest listings by the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

During a recent appearance on Oprah, Maya Angelou was asked what she thought of growing older. Some of her comments:

1. "I've learned that no matter what happens, or how bad it seems today, life does go on, and it will be better tomorrow."

2. "I've learned that you can tell a lot about a person by the way he/she handles these three things: a rainy day, lost luggage, and tangled Christmas tree lights."

3. "I've learned that making a living is not the same thing as making a life.

4. "I've learned that you shouldn't go through life with a catcher's mitt on both hands; you need to be able to throw some things back."

5. "I've learned that whenever I decide something with an open heart, I usually make the right decision."

6. "I've learned that even when I have pains, I don't have to be one."

7. "I've learned that I still have a lot to learn."

8."I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel."

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