Date: May 19, 2008
Vol. XII, No. 10

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: DEFENDING YOUR INTERESTS 

Sometimes issues arise that can damage your business but you are relatively powerless to stop them. The Orphan Works bills in Congress and the proposed laws and regulations regarding jewelry-making (see below) are two such examples.

They are exactly why you need to join and support a trade association. CHA, TNNA, and the Fashion Jewelry Trade Assn. are actively working to educate politicians to enact sensible laws and regulations that protect consumers without decimating businesses.

Trade associations are much more than trade shows. Sewing companies have competently-run trade shows, but since the demise of the Home Sewing Assn., no one protects their interests or speaks for them.

Business-Wise. "How To Screw Up a Good Company." The previous issue listed "10 Reasons Why Industry Businesses Fail." This follow-up cites specific examples.

Designing Perspectives. A more complete explanation of the danger of the Orphan Works bill currently moving through the Congressional legislative process.

"Benny Da Buyer." So, on what are consumers going to spend their economic stimulus checks? And how much? Here are the latest answers from the National Retail Federation survey.

Newsbriefs. The May 8 Newsbrief detailing the progress of the Orphan Works bills through Congress, Jo-Ann's first-quarter sales report, and retailers' April sales figures.

Many of the economic stimulus checks are in the mail, and hopefully you've received an income tax refund. What are you going to do with the money? There have been numerous studies of consumers' spending plans, now CLN is asking you. What are you going to do, or have done, with your checks from the government? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

Apparently the poor economy isn't frightening CLN voters – too much. More CLN voters are planning to expand their businesses than cut back during the poor economy. While only 2.9% are planning substantial increases, 34.3% are planning to expand "somewhat." More than a fifth, 22.9%, said they have made or are planning substantial cutbacks. Another 14.3% have or will cut back "somewhat." The remaining 25.7% plan to maintain the status quo.

State legislatures and retailers are not waiting for the federal Consumer Product Safety Commission to toughen its regulations for children's jewelry, and the results could make life much more complicated – and expensive – for jewelry-making vendors and retailers.

The state of Massachusetts is about to enforce the strictest regulations in the country regarding levels of lead in kids' jewelry, and it has retailers screaming that it will mean millions of pieces of jewelry will have to be pulled off store shelves. Michael Gale, Exec Director of the Fashion Jewelry Trade Assn., says the regulations will affect jewelry-making supplies, too.

It's not just Massachusetts. "There are laws or proposed laws on this issue in 11 states at this time," Gale said.

Meanwhile, Wal-Mart has ordered its suppliers to meet a new set of children's-product safety requirements by this fall that go far beyond existing government regulations, the Wall Street Journal reported. The company is also encouraging suppliers to mark children's products with "traceability information," including the factory in which they were produced.

The Massachusetts Department of Health is close to requiring stores to have proof from manufacturers that jewelry for children 13 years and younger does not have unsafe levels of lead, the Boston Globe reported. Manufacturers would have to conduct two kinds of tests, including one that would subject products to an acid test and allow the equivalent of 15 micrograms of lead to leach out a day, a much more stringent limit than the federal government's.

The problem for jewelry suppliers is two-fold. Some of the jewelry currently on store shelves does not meet that standard, and there are, Gale said, very few labs that have the necessary equipment to carry out the tests required by the new standard.

The issue raises a number of questions. 1. When are jewelrymaking supplies for someone 13? Or 14? If a tween girl buys supplies at, say, Michaels, will she have to show an ID? 2. If a vendor ships to a chain's warehouse, how does he know which pieces go to Massachusetts' stores? 3. If individual states have different testing and labeling requirements, does the vendor pick the most stringent requirements and follow those? Or does he simply stop selling in certain states? 4. And where is the line between jewelry-making supplies and "children's" products?

(Note: To contact the Fashion Jewelry Trade Assn., visit www.fjta.org or email Michael Gale at fjta@aol.com.)

1. The jewelry-making situation is similar to a crisis in the 1980's for art materials companies. State legislatures started passing laws requiring certain labels and, in some cases, keeping certain products in locked cases. One vendor, who produced a product in a very small bottle, said the wording requirements would make the label bigger than the bottle. Some vendors thought they would have to stop selling their products in certain states.

Finally the industry convinced politicians that it would follow any standard they wanted, but please, make it one standard, not 50.

That issue is resolved today. When a company produces a new art material product, it submits it to the Art & Creative Materials Institute (ACMI) for testing. If approved, then the label can carry an appropriate ACMI logo, and retailers know it has passed the appropriate tests. To visit ACMI's website, visit www.acminet.org.

2. In the 1970's, Congress was so concerned about children sniffing glue that it considered legislation that could have virtually wiped out the plastic model kit category, at the time a major component of the Hobby Industry Assn., the predecessor to the Craft & Hobby Assn. If children can't use glue, they can't put together model airplanes, ships, etc. The industry mobilized and the crisis was averted.

(Note: In the previous issue CLN reported on the Orphan Works bills in Congress, bills that would make it quite difficult to protect copyrights of designers, manufacturers, publishers – everyone. Here are responses from CLN readers.)

1. "What most people in our industry don't realize is that this legislation will affect many more than those in the creative community.

"Our publishers and manufacturers will be just as affected, waking up one morning to find that the graphics and photography used in their products are being reproduced by their competitors. And if they choose to litigate, the most they can ever be awarded is $1500. Certainly not enough to bother with litigation, and definitely not enough to act as a deterrent.

"If this legislation is passed, manufacturers will see rampant pirating of their graphics and photographic work within a year of the enactment." – Cindy Groom-Harry, Craft Marketing Connections

2. "Thanks for adding the Orphan Works info to your update. This would kill almost every segment of the creative industry if it passes." – Jan Evans, More Than Words

3. "I have written to my representatives, but it sure sounds like our elected officials need to hear more and louder voices. I'd like to invite manufacturers and publishers to speak up with us and for us, adding their concern to that of the individual designers and photographers whose work could so easily be considered 'orphaned' when it is not.

"I phrased it this way in my letters: If a car is stolen and then re-painted or used for parts, it remains stolen. Saying that the owner wasn't easy to find and that the car has been abandoned and therefore it is free for the taking doesn't give someone the right to take it." – Judi Kauffman

4. TNNA emailed its members educating them about the bills and encouraging them to contact their Congressional representatives.

(Note: To read more details about the the bills, click on Newsbriefs and Designing Objectives in the left-hand column. To learn about their current status, visit http://capwiz.com/illustratorspartnership/home. The site also makes it quick and easy to email your particular House and Senate representatives.)

Sales for the first quarter fell 6.5% to $126.5 million, and same-store decreased by 11.6% compared to a year ago. There was a net loss of $1.8 million ($0.09/share) compared with a net income of $0.3 million ($0.02) a year ago. First quarter results include costs of $0.01/share related to the inventory restatement, and $0.03/share related to increasing a state tax reserve.

CEO Rick Lepley stated, "We are pleased with our continued improvement in gross margin. Halfway through the second quarter we have seen an improvement in the comp sales trend and we are hopeful that can be sustained throughout the balance of the quarter. We are continuing our work on improving our overall level of execution at the store and corporate level and installing state of the art systems."

In a phone call with analysts, execs pointed to wicker, stitchery, cake decorating, and art materials as strong performers.

For the quarter ended Apr. 30, net sales rose 10.2% to approximately $94.1 billion, and net income was up 6.9% to $3.02 billion. Diluted earnings/share are $0.76, up from $0.68 a year ago.

Sales in U.S. stores rose 6.6% to $59.07 billion, and same-store sales (without accounting for gasoline sales) rose 2.7%. Operating income rose 9.6% to $4.36 billion.

"We're off to a solid start, with record first quarter sales and earnings," said President/CEO Lee Scott, but Exec VP/CFO Tom Schoewe predicted same-store sales in the U.S. in the next quarter would be "between flat and 2%," saying it's difficult to quantify the impact of stimulus payments on U.S. sales.

Prior to the announcement, Store Division President/CEO Eduardo Castro-Wright said, "The economy continues to get tougher and the 'paycheck cycle' is more pronounced for customers than in past months. As money gets tighter for them toward the end of the month, sales dropped more than we have seen in the past."

Last Wednesday, CEO Brian Cornell presented a company update to investors of Bain Capital, the private equity firm that, with The Blackstone Group, took Michaels private in 2006. Highlights included the following:

1. The basic store has not radically changed. The inventory mix is 41% Kids & Specialty Crafts, 25% Seasonal/Home & DIY Decor, 18% Framing, and 16% Scrapbooking. The average store is 18,500 sq. ft. and carries 40,000-50,000 SKUs.

2. The store environment has historically been "supply driven," meaning a "high number of SKU's and an intense shopping experience with limited in-store inspiration."

3. Also mentioned were the number of personnel changes made since the go-private transaction. These included internal promotions and the infusion of external talent due to the addition of new departments such as Global Sourcing and Consumer Insight.

4. The Knack Free Family Event held in March attracted a total attendance of 78,473, which boosted Crayola sales 46% over the event last year. Since its launch, 51,137 people have signed up for The Knack.

5. Certain elements of the company's Next Generation store were shared. Judging from the drawings, those elements were radically different from the status quo and quite impressive, clearly aimed at making Michaels easier to shop and more inspirational to consumers.

6. There was also a review on direct sourcing and proprietary brands, citing "unbranded" scrapbooking supplies and ribbon as examples. In terms of importing, the 2007 fiscal year receipts broke down this way: 75% from Domestic Importers, 7% from Foreign Factory-Direct, and 18% "Indirect Import."

7. Consistent with prior messages, Mr. Cornell indicated that the "U.S. and Canadian markets should support 45-50 new Michaels stores per year for foreseeable future." The company believes the total store potential for U.S./Canada is 1,350, up from the current level of 980 stores.

8. The longer-term goal is $5+ billion in revenue and $1+ billion in EBITDA.

(Note: The following emails are in response to the question raised in the previous issue of CLN, does QVC help or hurt retail stores?)

I believe that QVC and any other television exposure helps the entire scrapbooking industry. The more exposure the better for us all. It reminds those who haven't scrapped in a while, invites those who are new to the craft, and inspires those who are seasoned pros.

Sure, some people buy from QVC instead of their local store, but when those supplies run out and they are hooked, where do they go? To us, the local retailer.

I invite any and all scrapbooking on any media, be it QVC, some soap star showing her scrapbook of the soap family she lost in some soap tragedy, a person on the radio mentioning that they scrapbook – anything. Even if it was as negative as a scrapbook of Paris Hilton's sex life, it's still exposure that will ultimately benefit us. – Pam Sutherland, Chic Scrapbooks, www.chicscrapbooks.com

We watch various segments of the QVC programs to see what they are selling. First, it tells us whether or not we should carry a product. Second, it helps us price right on big ticket items. Third, it helps us set up classes for tools and machines. (We also go to Costco and Sam's to see what they have as well.)

If we see QVC selling something at a price near our cost, we call the vendor and tell him that we are going to drop the line unless we get better pricing. We have dropped a couple of complete lines as a result of this.

If we can adjust our price on a large-ticket (over $50) item, we do so and tell our customers that we are price competitive, and have the expertise to demonstrate it live. We schedule classes or product demonstrations during crops and retreats to teach customers how to use the tool or machine.

For example, Xyron recently had a promotion where stores received a free 900 Laminator for every Wishblade that was purchased. Both the Wishblade and the 900 are sold on QVC. Our price for the Wishblade includes a free two-hour class that I teach every other month. I usually have about eight students, of which five bought the machine on QVC. At the end of the class we let everyone know that we stock replacement blades and cutting mats. So far this year, we have sold about $1,000 worth of replacement items. If we did not have the classes, we would not have had these sales (and future sales of other products from these customers).

We had our "free" 900 machines priced at $119, the same price as on the Xyron website. Last Saturday, we saw it on QVC for about $60. We put our free machines on sale for $60 and will keep that price for the next month or two. We also do a good business in replacement cartridges for all of the Xyron Laminators.

I believe the key to competing with QVC is to have no more than two or three large-ticket items in stock at prices that are the same. There is a segment of our customer base that is "I want it NOW," and will call to see if we have something that they saw on QVC. We know that we may not make our normal profit margin on a $450 Wishblade, but making $75 to $100 is better than making nothing. Said differently, how many sheets of card stock do you have to sell to make $100? About 400.

Our philosophy is, competition is good because it raises the awareness of scrapbooking in general. We had a new customer on Sunday who had seen part of the QVC segment while she was channel surfing. She had not scrapbooked for about five years and decided to get back into it. Her total was over $150. – Mike Dolan, Scrapbook 911, San Antonio, TX

It would be interesting if the industry could figure out the percentage of social scrappers vs. solitary scrappers. Also, what percentage of the time does a scrapper crop in private vs. crop in a more social setting?

What does this have to do with your question? Well, a lot I think. In order to succeed in retail, you have to know your customer. A significant percentage of our customers are social scrappers. They LIKE coming into our store; they like our demos, our make-it/take-its, our classes, our crops – the fact that we provide a welcoming social setting for their hobby. Do they buy things they see on tv? I am sure a percentage of them do. Same question, same answer for online purchasing. Does that help or hurt us? Define "help." Define "hurt." How do we measure it after we define the terms?

It's not just about dollars and cents. It goes back to knowing who our customers are, and by and large they are social people. Whether direct sales, Internet sales, mail order, eBay, or QVC helps or hurts us, it's truly difficult to measure. And even if we knew the answer, would it make a difference? What would we do if we knew the answer?

Almost all retail (scrapbook and paper crafting) businesses have competitors. Some are down the street, some across town, some in neighboring towns, and of course some are on tv or on the Internet.

I think it's marginally interesting to know, if you can know, what your competitors are doing, but every small business person runs their business out of their own personality and their understanding of who their customers are. You have to keep sharp, keep your eyes on the prize. I believe that worrying about what your competitors are doing is a useless distraction. Doesn't matter if they are down the street or around the world. – Bud Izen, Scrapbook Fever, Salem OR

1. Years ago at the summer CHA show, I moderated a panel discussion of the leaders of the top chain stores. Just before it was to start, a vendor asked me to include a question: how did the chains feel about a vendor selling on tv. I asked, and the chains were unanimous: By all means sell on tv, but don't you dare sell the products for less than we do.

2. For independents who think the chains are invincible, the chain execs on that panel discussion were from Frank's, Cloth World, MJ Designs, the old Ben Franklin, and Michaels.

3. From a consumer's blog: "I'm taking a week long course at Hancock Fabrics this summer to learn how to sew. Yeah that is something I don't know how to do, and I really want to learn. So I am really excited about it." If she has a good teacher, think how much more she'll buy at Hancock and other sewing retailers. That's why retailers should look at classes as an investment, not an expense.

4. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2008 Graduation Consumer Intentions and Actions survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 35.6% of those surveyed planned to give gift cards to graduates. How about scrapbook stores promoting gift cards as gifts to middle and high school girls? The first scrapbook store I visited, about 15 years ago this time of year, was filled with teen girls planning scrapbooks of their senior proms and graduations.

5. In the last issue CLN published a suggestion that retailers offer a service whereby they would digitize customers' slides. I thought it was a great idea that hit home; my father-in-law never took photos, only slides, and our family has boxes of them. I put the issue online and later that night while channel surfing, I came across the Home Shopping Network which was selling a gizmo that would allow consumers to digitize slides on their own. Cost: about $100.

MISCELLANEOUS NEWS

MICHAELS. Harvey Kanter, Exec VP and Managing Director, is resigning effective May 25 to pursue a top leadership role at another company. Until Kanter's replacement is named, the merchandising organization will report to CEO Brian Cornell who said, "Harvey has made significant contributions to Michaels by assisting in our transformation to a consumer-driven organization and we appreciate his service. He has developed a strong team and we are confident they will ensure a smooth transition."

REPORT. The Blackstone Group, co-owner with Bain Capital of Michaels, reported a net loss of $251 million for the first quarter, compared with net income of $1.13 billion a year earlier. Revenue fell 95% to $68.5 million. The company's stock, which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol BH, is down about a third from its initial public offering last July. To read the report, visit www.blackstone.com/news/press_releases/5-15-2008.pdf.

ACQUISITION. Chartpak acquired the art and engineering vellum paper business segment of Permalite, Inc. "This product line acquisition will be branded under our Clearprint name, which is the market leader for art and engineering vellum paper in the U.S.," says Chartpak President Steven Roth. "This product line will be coated and converted in our Leeds, MA facility which currently handles Clearprint, Koh-I-Noor and Frances Meyer scrapbooking papers." Chartpak brands include Grumbacher, Koh-I-Noor, Pelikan, Clearprint, Frances Meyer, MACO, and Crafthouse.

WAL-MART. The number of company employees has surpassed two million, the Associated Press reported, with 1.3 million in the U.S. ... Is planning a major expansion in Canada – opening as many as 27 supercenters by early 2009, according to the Montreal Gazette.

CREDIT CARDS. Last Thursday a spokesperson for the National Retail Federation urged the House Judiciary Committee to support antitrust legislation that would require Visa and MasterCard to negotiate with merchants over credit card processing fees, saying a hidden fee charged by the two card giants is projected to cost the average U.S. family more than $400 this year. (Comment: This is another example of a trade association speaking up for its members.)

PEOPLE. Polyform Products named Wendy Carney Director of Sales. She had been Director of National Accounts for Wilton and prior to that worked for Back Street.

DUNCAN. Has combined sales and marketing departments, led by Valerie Mardersosian, VP of Sales & Marketing. Promotions include Dean Saether to Director of Sales & Marketing, Ceramic Arts; Mark Roberson to Director of Sales & Marketing, Craft Retail Channel; and Toni Botelho to Director of Sales & Marketing, Mass Retail Channel. Also, Alyson Udell was promoted to Director of Marketing Communications and Linda Selnick to Public Relations Manager.

PLAID. Designers, inventors, crafters, and artists can now submit product and design ideas to Plaid online. Visit www.plaidonline.com for more details. Plus, designers who publish work in national magazines featuring Plaid products are eligible to receive endorsement fees through the Pay for Publication program, which has been enhanced to keep designers aware of new product introductions, fee schedules, and provide complimentary products for projects scheduled to be published in books and magazines.

LOEW-CORNELL. Is closing its New Jersey office June 27. The corporate parent, Jarden is moving the operation to Cincinnati and merging it with its playing card division. For the quarter ended Mar. 31, Jarden's net sales increased 48% to $1.2 billion. Adjusted net income was $16.5 million ($0.22/diluted share) compared to $17.1 million ($0.24) a year ago.

JO-ANN. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised Jo-Ann's corporate credit rating to B from B- and senior subordinated notes to CCC+ from CCC, citing improved cash flows in the past six quarters through better merchandise and inventory management, more efficient marketing, and other cost controls. S&P said the outlook is positive.

SEWING. A program to train people to be sewing instructors is available at www.trainedsewinginstructor.com. Former Home Sewing Assn. Trained Sewing Educators can be grandfathered in if they apply by Sept. 30.

LOOKING FOR REPS. National paint company is looking for independent reps for the Southeast, West Coast, and upper Northwest territories; interested parties should email Mark Lee at markhlee@mac.com or call 317-270-0836.

QUOTATION. "An endcap has about seven times the sales velocity of an in-shelf position." – Lutz Muller, TD Monthly (a trade publication for the toy industry)

STOCKS. A.C. Moore: $7.11, up $0.36 ... Jo-Ann: $21.88, up $1.48 ... Wal-Mart: $57.04, down $0.46 ... Dow Jones: 12,986.80, down 0.5%. (Note: All changes in price are since 5/2 and are exclusive of dividends.)

MOVIES. Yarn Market News reported filming of Friday Night Knitting Club with Julia Roberts has been delayed, a victim of the writers' strike. It was to premier June 8 but hasn't even begun filming.

PEOPLE. Interweave named David Pyle VP/Publisher of the Bead, Gem & Jewelry Division. He will oversee the operations of Beadwork, Step by Step Beads, Step by Step Wire Jewelry, Stringing, Jewelry Artist, Tucson Show Guide, and Colored Stone magazines, and the Bead Fest and Bead Expo consumer events. He will also continue the development of Interweave’s online, video, and book publishing efforts. Pyle had been Group Publisher for F+W Publications and prior to that, worked at ColArt.

BEADS. Kalmbach, the publisher of Bead Style magazine, has released Under $25, a special issue which contains 52 projects – necklaces, bracelets, earrings, and rings – that can be made for less than $25, $20, $15, and some for less than $5. (Comment: A smart idea in these tough economic times.)

TV. Knit and Crochet Today received an Emmy nomination from the Michigan chapter of the National Academy of Television Arts & Sciences in the Informational/ Instructional category. Produced by designer/author Candi Jensen, the episode that received the nomination features Brett Bara, Editor of Crochet Today magazine. The series is underwritten by Coats & Clark. The first season of 13 shows is currently airing on 200+ PBS stations, including the cable network Create – reaching a 64% share of the PBS audience. A new season of 26 episodes will begin airing in Fall 2008.

BLOG. Read Kizer & Bender's May 17 report on middle-aged women reportedly stealing artificial flowers from Sepulcher cemetery in Cudahy, WI for their craft projects. Visit www.kizerandbender.blogspot.com.

EMAIL. (From a major importer who asked that his name be withheld.) "Last weekend I attended a private show in Des Moines and attendance was definitely affected in a MAJOR way by travel costs. It was terrible; even their management stated so. As prices get higher as summer approaches, this is only going to get worse. I think it is going to be a MAJOR negative impact in all areas of the country."

NEEDLEWORK. Attendance was down about 20% at the New England Needlework Assn. show May 4-5 in Sturbridge, MA., Yarn Market News reported. A tough economy and high gas prices were the culprits, sponsors said.

CHA. Online registration begins today for the CHA summer show, July 18-20 in Rosemont, IL, with education beginning July 17. More than 70 workshops, seminars, and "demonars" will be offered, including "Retailing with Excellence Program," a track of customized education for independent and scrapbook retailers; "Designer Education," events for designers scheduled during the lunch hours; and "Kids Crafting," programs designed to educate CHA members on reaching kids with craft products and services. Visit www.chashow.org.

PAINTING. The Society of Decorative Painters 2009 Convention will be in Peoria June 15-20. More details to follow shortly.

NEEDLEWORK. TNNA will sponsor a fall Needlecraft Market at the Embassy Suites in St. Charles, IL (adjacent to St. Louis) Sept 14-15 with education beginning Sept. 13. And the summer show, June 7-9 in Columbus, is almost upon us. Visit www.tnna.org.

To see the latest listings from the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

I do want to share with you what a wonderful experience my Mom had at the NAMTA show and how it confirmed my belief that I work in the best industry there is, and with the most generous people as well.

My mother is an artist (painter) and quite talented. Like most women of her generation she subjugated her dreams and her talent to raise kids and to join the workforce as so many moms in the 60's were required to do. Since her retirement last spring, she has finally found the time to indulge her artistic nature.

Mom had never attended a trade show and was concerned about abiding by the "rules" when we arrived. (I had explained booth etiquette to her.) She would have been perfectly happy walking the aisles and looking and never touching a thing; in most industries, that's all she would have been allowed, but not in the creative industry. We hadn't walked half an aisle before she was in a conversation. She was walked through booths, given samples, educated, and conversed with, and just had a wonderful time. As she became more confident, she shared ideas and suggestions and was so gratified to be listened to.

While I would rather have seen a rush of last minute sales for the industry, I'm so grateful that all these people were not only willing but eager to visit with an end user and share their knowledge. Mom left the show enthusiastic about new products and inspired to use them, and I left reminded that I might find a more lucrative industry but never a better one. -- Trish Hansen, MoonSong Design

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