Date: June 16, 2008
Vol. XII, No. 12

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: A MIXED BAG ON GAS PRICES 

Any time the economy changes, there are winners and losers. For example: when the dollar weakens, it helps U.S. exporters because their products cost less overseas, but it hurts importers because their costs rise. So what will the rising cost of gas do to us? All sorts of things:

1. I'm hearing anecdotal reports that store traffic in general is down – due, I assume, to gas prices (and perhaps the lack of hot, must-have-right-now products). The decline in travel over the Memorial Day weekend caused some media outlets to call what consumers did instead as "Staycations." Now Wal-Mart has started a site, www.walmartstores.com/staycations, with 101 ideas for stay-at-home fun.

Consumers staying home could hurt retail sales, but it could help sales if families need more to do. That could be especially true for kids crafts. But fewer out-of-town vacations could hurt scrapbooking; consumers probably don't take as many photographs if they're in their backyard, rather than at Disney World.

2. E-commerce sites should do well in this environment, too. As should e-books. For example, as I've mentioned before, my wife Barbara (aka The Bead Queen) and I sell her creations at art fairs. Recently she wanted to buy a book, Ultimate Guide To Your Profitable Jewelry Booth, by Rena Klingenberg. I paid online, downloaded it, printed it on three-ring paper, and put it in a binder. Didn't have to use gas to drive to a store, had my copy in five minutes – and Rena didn't have to print and ship/mail copies. (Read more about e-books, below.)

3. I suspect Wal-Mart, particularly the supercenters, will be stronger competition for retailers, because consumers can do more one-stop shopping.

Business-Wise. Designer Brenda Pinnick, a member of the Orphan Works opposition team, reports on the team's recent in-person lobbying efforts in Washington, D.C. Plus, CLN obtained a copy of a letter written by Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), a co-sponsor of the Senate version, who presents a different view of the Orphan Works legislation.

Category Reports. Read all about the new Sewing & Craft Alliance, led by Joyce Perhac, former Exec. Director of the Home Sewing Assn.

Benny Da Buyer. Kathy Lamancusa was one of the industry's most prolific and successful individuals, working as a writer, designer, trend guru, teacher, demonstrator, and spokesperson. She's left the industry and now has a completely different perspective. She doesn't like what she sees, particularly the way retailers are advertising.

Designing Perspectives. A magazine editor rants about the unprofessional work of some designers.

Note: To read the columns, click on the title in the left-hand column. If you surf to a column and it appears to be an old column, click your browser's Refresh or Reload button.

The year is almost half over – already. So what's it been like for your business, whatever it is? Is your income up, down, or the same as the first half of '07? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

Yes, according to subscribers who voted in the CLN poll. Among exhibitors, 43.24% had already reduced their 2008 exhibition schedule, and another 21.62% said they were either reducing the number of shows or the size of their booth. More than a quarter, 27.0%, said their plans will not change, and only 5.4% were either increasing their number of shows or had already done so.

Retailers and others are not cutting back as much as vendors, but 29.2% have already reduced the number of shows they attend, and another 16.7% plan to reduce their travel for the remainder of the year. "My plans will not change," said 16.7% of the voters, while 12.5% plan to attend more shows.

Taken from the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission: "The Plan provides for the payment in full of all Allowed Claims regardless of the category. 'Payment in full' includes post-petition interest from the date the Company filed for bankruptcy for holders of Secured Claims, Priority Claims, General Unsecured Claims and certain Administrative Claims."

The plan has been approved by the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors (vendors) and the Official Committee of Equity Security Holders (stockholders).

According to the law firm Cooley Godward Kronish, which acted as lead counsel for the creditors' committee, general unsecured creditors will receive cash equal to 104.93% of their claims. "We believe Hancock will be the first retailer to emerge successfully from bankruptcy as a reorganized entity since the new bankruptcy amendments were enacted in 2005," said Jay Indyke of Cooley Godward Kronish.

"This is a very successful case not only because of the extraordinary recovery creditors are receiving, but also because the company will survive as an ongoing entity and many employee jobs will be preserved," said Cathy Hershcopf, another Cooley lawyer.

Hancock filed for bankruptcy on March 21, 2007. A hearing date is scheduled for tomorrow and the plan's final approval by the court is expected in August.

A.C. Moore announced it would be closing 7-10 stores this year and scaled back its planned new store openings from 14 to 8-12. The decisions are the result of a real estate portfolio review.

Regarding the new stores, the company will attempt to open them with sufficient store density to leverage expenses such as advertising and supply chain replenishment costs – and take advantage of the current real estate environment to relocate some existing stores, when and where practical.

There should be real estate opportunities, thanks to the general trend of store closings.

According to Chain Store Guide which tracks such things, in the month of May, supermarket, drug, mass, specialty and home center retailers opened 95 stores – and closed 262. Of the 262 outlets closed, 203 – 78% – were specialty stores.

A.C. Moore is also negotiating with state and local authorities to expand its distribution center facility in Berlin, NJ. If the negotiations are successful, the company will postpone construction of a second distribution center.

Nancy Nally reports on her website, Scrapbook Update, www.scrapbookupdate.com/scrapnancy/2008/06/ac-moore-closin.html, said that one store that will close is in Daytona Beach, FL. Employees told Nancy they had already been informed of the closing, which will be July 6.

The company expects pre-tax expenses associated with the closings to be $7-$9 million: $4-$5 million for settlement of lease liabilities; $1-$2 million related to other store closing costs, such as liquidation, fixture relocation, and severance; and up to $2.0 million related to non-cash fixed asset impairment. All of these expenses are expected to be incurred in 2008.

CEO Rick Lepley said, "Store closings are extremely difficult decisions because of the effect on our organization, our associates and our customers. However, we believe that these changes are necessary for the long-term prosperity of our company. Improving our overall level of execution at the store and corporate level, installing state of the art systems, and optimizing our 'Nevada Class' store prototype are paramount at this time. In addition to our real estate strategy, we are confident that continuing these initiatives will provide a solid foundation for future store count growth."

"But to analysts closely watching the $560 million chain of craft stores based in Berlin, NJ, the announcement was a sign that better days are ahead for the company...," reported the Philadelphia Inquirer. "A lot of what A.C. Moore has done over the past year is similar to what Michaels did about five or six years ago," retail analyst Holly Guthrie of Janney Montgomery Scott told the Inquirer.

The current store count is 139.

The recent show in Milwaukee – the largest consumer bead show in the U.S. – was better than last year when attendance reached 14,000. That is, until hellacious storms hit Milwaukee Saturday and Sunday. (The media reported 3.5" of rain fell on Milwaukee in one hour.) That surely cut down the drive-in traffic. Until then, most vendors were pleasantly surprised by their orders and the attendance.

Trends: Think gas prices have skyrocketed? So have the prices of gold and silver. Look for consumers to switch to stones, glass, copper, brass, and even plastic because of the cost. ... The "eco" trend was apparent: lots of genuine leaves that had been gold- or silver-plated and sold as beads. ... Using keys as beads. ... A layered look – wearing two or three necklaces of different lengths. ... "Mixing metals" – combining two or more metals (gold, silver, copper and brass) in the same design.

A growing trend is beads overlapping into other categories: Industry veteran Lynda Musante showed a charm bracelet that is, in effect, a scrapbook of a recent vacation in New York City. (A report on the bracelet is in the Summer issue of Bead Unique magazine.) It included a piece of a Broadway show ticket decoupaged onto a plaque. Other "charms" were created using various craft techniques. ... One instructor told the class she will be teaching at Quilt Market. ... A vendor was selling flat wooden pieces that could be painted, then used as focal beads – bead shows could be a new market for decorative painters. ... Using stamps on precious-metal and polymer clay. ... A vendor sold a necklace kit with a focal piece that was a small book with blank pages for the owner to wear as a miniature scrapbook. ... Some beaders are knitting, even macrame-ing their jewelry. ... Buttons, sometimes with a second hole drilled, used as beads.

Michaels named Shelley Broader President/COO effective June 23. Broader will report to CEO Brian Cornell, himself a product of the grocery business – Chief Marketing Officer at Safeway.

Broader will be responsible for Michaels and Aaron Brothers store operations, Artistree, supply chain operations, real estate development, loss prevention, and store planning.

Broader, 44, had been President/CEO of Sweetbay Supermarkets, formerly known as Kash n' Karry Food Stores, the #5 supermarket chain in Florida with 106 stores. Prior to Sweetbay, Broader had been Sr. VP, Business Strategy, Marketing, and Communications for Hannaford Bros., a grocery chain in the Northeast and part of the U.S. division of Brussels-based Delhaize Group, a multi-billion dollar global food retailer. Recently Broader was named Business Woman of the Year by the Tampa Bay Business Journal.

Hobby Lobby has embarked on an expansion campaign that includes Western New York, reported Business First of Buffalo. HL may see several stores open in Upstate New York and Pennsylvania, the publication reported. "Buffalo is a market we'd like to be in fairly soon," HL's Director of Training and Customer Service told Business First, "but we haven't signed any deals yet. We see Buffalo as a growing market and we see it as a place with opportunities. We don't look for blue-collar areas or white-collar areas; we just look at the area as a whole. There is no typical Hobby Lobby customer."

A new HL opens in Mesa, AZ today, with another to open in the fall. The area already has eight Michaels stores and three Jo-Ann stores.

HL's current store count is 405 stores in 33 states. It is scheduled to open its first store in New York later this year in the Rochester suburb of Webster.

The 1100+ students were so excited and so happy with most all aspects of the convention. Of course, there were a few glitches; a few teachers who had paint problems, but DecoArt was able to "save the day" and find paint for the teachers. Delta and Plaid did not show, but we had Traditions, Chroma, and DecoArt, so it was good exposure for these companies.

DecoArt had two 100- and 125- round-robin classes showing off new products. It was really well received, and will probably be repeated next year. Every company seems to be neglecting product education. We introduced about eight new and extended lines – I loved the new texture products! Fabric paint flew off the shelves! There are certainly a lot of brush companies, all discounting and fighting for the dollars.

The vendors always want more business, but most had done really well on the Members- Only night, and the first day was quite good. Saturday, the last day, was good also; yes, there were people who had issues with sales, but they do the same thing year after year! – Doxie Keller, a member of the SDP board of directors

In previous issues CLN reported on numerous surveys that indicated few consumers would not spend much of their economic stimulus checks in stores. Apparently consumers changed their minds. Overall retail sales in the U.S. grew 1.0%, the largest amount in six months, the Commerce Department reported. That's double what economists were expecting, the Associated Press reported. According to data from Thomson Financial, of 31 retailers reporting their May same-store sales 18 beat expectations, three met expectations, and 10 missed.

"It certainly looks as though gas tanks didn't siphon off all of the rebate stimulus," Ken Perkins of the research firm RetailMetrics told the AP. "Consumers were able to spend in May."

The winners were discounters (Wal-Mart and Costco) and high-end department stores (Nordstrom). Losers included Target, mid-range department and mall-based apparel stores.

A sampling of same-store sales results: Nordstrom, +10.9% ... Costco, +9.0% ... Sam's Club, +3.6% ... Wal-Mart, +3.9% ... T.J. Maxx/Marshalls), +2.0% ... Target, -0.2% ... J.C. Penney, -4.4% ... Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, -6.0% ... American Eagle Outfitters, -9.0% ... Gap (including Old Navy), -14.0%.

Interweave has acquired American Artist, Drawing, Watercolor, and Workshop magazines from Nielsen Business Media. The acquisition includes special interest publications, custom publishing operations, a video platform, e-newsletters, and the website, www.myamericanartist.com. Terms were not disclosed.

The publications will be led by David Pyle, former Group Publisher of The Artist's Magazine for F+W Publications and now VP/Publisher for Interweave's Bead, Gem, and Jewelry Division, which will be regrouped as the Art and Jewelry Division. American Artist will maintain its editorial, design, and ad sales departments in New York.

Interweave's franchises include six magazines for artists, 11 for crafters, and a trade publication. Each will be sold separately to subscribers, but Interweave will be able to sell them in packages to advertisers which will also encompass advertising and sponsorship opportunities around events, television, e-mail newsletters, web sites, and online and print directories.

One of the most valuable benefits a good trade association provides its members is to sponsor a "size of industry" study. Yet many members will look at the data in the study and shake their heads in disbelief. Here's why:

1. The data is national, yet every business is local. No individual business is going to be an accurate microcosm of the country or a particular product category. For example, a study might indicate scrapbooking declined in the past year, but many individual stores show increasing sales. The two may appear to contradict each other, but that doesn't mean one or the other is wrong.

2. When a study questions consumers, the results can be far different from what – and how much – retailers are selling. A classic example is the recent Bead&Button show in Milwaukee. Last year's event attracted 14,000 consumers, all buying from small importers who sell directly to beaders and jewelry-makers rather than to retail stores.

There are numerous consumer shows, particularly in rubber stamping and beading, where consumers are spending millions, millions that would not be included if a study questioned only retailers. Then there's mail-order, Internet, QVC/Home Shopping, and infomercials.

3. Consumers' definition of "crafting" is often far different than the industry's. Consumer A wants to refinish a desk, so he buys a can of Minwax at Home Depot. Consumer B, an "indie" crafter, decides to make a lampshade out of duct tape (yes, there are instructions for such a project on the Internet) and buys the tape at a hardware store. Both of them consider their activities as "crafting" and report their purchases on a questionnaire.

Those involved in the scrapbooking category who are attending the CHA Summer Show should consider attending "The Habits of Scrapbookers: What You May Not Know." CHA's VP Marketing, Member Services & Education, Sandy Ghezzi, will present the latest scrapbooking data from CHA's research studies, and discuss those results with a panel of scrapbook vendors and retailers. The seminar is Event #S118, 2-3 pm on Sat., July 19. It's free to CHA members ($50 for non-members), but you need a ticket. Registration info is available at www.chashow.org. One third of the tickets have already been ordered.

Some highlights from the study: Scrapbookers participate in a variety of other hobbies – an opportunity to expand memory crafts into new areas ... Scrappers most often shop in chain stores ... A typical project takes about 19 hours to complete ... Heavy scrapers (11+ projects/year) tend to be younger, have kids, and are employed with higher incomes.

(Note: To see which studies are available, a history of the industry's research, and advice on how to interpret studies, click on Industry Research in the left-hand column.)

Publishers and designers should take note of YouCanMakeThis.com, a site that offers a wide variety of projects in e-book form – almost 700 e-books in 34 categories. The emphasis appears to be on sewing, but there are projects in digital scrapbooking, jewelry-making, home dec, quilting, needlework, and more.

The site was launched six years ago by former fourth-grade teacher Kim Christopherson who switched from the classroom to the baby’s room when she became a mother. She put her projects on the site and encouraged others to do the same.

The concept raises interesting questions and challenges for publishers and retailers: 1. Publishers would no longer have printing and mailing costs or excess inventory. 2. Consumers would not have to drive to stores, and could buy only the project they wanted, without having to buy an entire book for one particular project.

Amazon.com's Jeffrey Bezos told the Wall Street Journal, "Over some time horizon, books will be read on electronic devices. Physical books won't completely go away, just as horses haven't completely gone away. But there is no sinecure for any technology. If you think about books, it's astonishing. It's very hard to find a technology that has remained in mostly the same form for 500 years."

1. If you're perusing the seminar listings for the CHA Summer Show and you come across my ugly mug, here's the deal: I'm teaching "The Future of Scrapbooking: A Historical Perspective" on Sat., July 19, from noon to 1 pm. What I plan to cover is the incredible similarities between the counted cross-stitch trend in the 1980's and scrapbooking, the mistakes cross stitch retailers and vendors made, and what the scrapbooking community can do to make sure history doesn't repeat itself.

Does this sound familiar? A trend that inspired thousands to open specialty shops, hundreds to start producing supplies, its own trade and consumer shows and magazines – I could go on and on. Everyone involved was convinced cross stitch would be strong forever.

Seen any cross stitch shops lately?

Come join me. The seminar is S115. You can register at www.chashow.org.

2. Monica Dennis is writing a book on women who start a business and raise a family at the same time. If that's you, or you've faced the challenge and overcame it, Monica wants to hear from you. To share your story – or just vent about your issues, Monica says – email her at mydmail@sbcglobal.net by June 30.

3. Here's my take on the A.C. Moore announcement: In part it's a matter of geography, similar to what Leewards went through many years ago. Leewards' (at one time the industry's largest chain) stores were primarily in the Midwest. Then the company opened a store in Las Vegas. One store. And that store had to shoulder the entire burden of advertising, like an independent. If a company has five stores in an area, then each store has to pay only one-fifth of the advertising costs. Watch for A.C. Moore to close stores that are the only company store in town, and open stores where the company already has an established base.

CORRECTION. In the last issue, CLN reported on Hobby Lobby's recall of lithium-polymer battery chargers and batteries. Turns out it was the wrong Hobby Lobby. Hobby Lobby Int. is an e-commerce site at www.hobby-lobby.com. "Our" HL is officially Hobby Lobby Creative Center, at www.hobbylobby.com.

QUOTATION. "Meanwhile, home-seamstress haven Jo-Ann ... delivered surprisingly strong first-quarter earnings after a stretch of dismal results, thanks in part to strong sales of sewing notions, quilting, and craft items. Same is true for Michaels ..., suggesting that consumers are going back to the basics as they spend more time at home." – Jennifer Waters, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, in the June 13 edition.

STOCK. Soleil Securities downgraded Jo-Ann from Buy to Hold. The firm said, "Although in our opinion JAS is one of the most attractive growth stories on our list, we see limited upside over the intermediate term, with the vast majority of sales and earnings coming in the back half of the year," StreetInsider.com reported.

HANCOCK. Lost $1.9 million for the month ended May 3, compared to a similar loss the previous month. April sales were $18.9 million, down from $24 million in March. For the quarter that ended May 3, Hancock reported a loss of $6.1 million on sales of $63.8 million. In the prior-year quarter, Hancock's loss was $1.2 million on sales of $69.2 million.

AWARD. Colorbök was awarded Supplier of the Year in Department 44 (papercrafting) at Wal-Mart.

SCRAPBOOKING. Linda Fantin, who often writes about scrapbooking for the Salt Lake Tribune, reports on the effect the Orphan Works bills in Congress would have on scrapbooking. To read the article, visit www.sltrib.com/ci_9525286.

MAGAZINES. Debbie Bliss Knitting Magazine, a biannual publication, will go on sale Sept. 2. It will wholesale for $3.99 and retail for $7.99. ... Kalmbach's Make It Mine has ceased publication. ... CNA, which had ceased publishing hard-copy issues a few months ago, has halted its online version. ... DRG is promoting breast cancer awareness through a new crochet pattern book, Think Pink, with 35 projects in a variety of skill levels. A portion of the proceeds will be donated to research. It will be available July 30.

BEADS. Visitors to BeadingDaily.com will determine the projects in an Interweave special publication, Bead Star. Editor Danielle Fox and her staff picked 180 finalists (20 in each of nine categories) from 1,500+ entries, and now visitors can vote through June 18. The winners receive various prizes, including a trip to Bead Fest Santa Fe and Bead Star hits the newsstands Dec. 26. Visit www.beadingdaily.com/beadstar to cast your vote. ... BeadingDaily.com has opened discussion forums, too at www.beadingdaily.com/forums.

PR. CHA's CEO Steve Berger was interviewed for ABC News Now's Money Matters program discussing the boom in the craft industry, trends, benefits of crafting, size of industry, etc. CHA reports the interview was streamed live to 37 million viewers on digital cable and to an additional 6 million online viewers. To see the interview, visit http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=5009393.

CARDMAKING. DRG released a new book, Card Making by Number, in a spiral-bound format that includes all of the materials to create 50 all-occasion cards. Retail, $29.99.

AWARDS. Independent Publisher magazine gave a gold Ippy award (best independently published books of the year) to Knitting Never Felt Better, by Nicky Epstein. Crochet Inspiration by Sasha Kagan tied with three other titles for a bronze award. Both in the Craft/How-To category, and both published by Sixth&Spring Books. Visit www.independentpublisher.com.

YARN. In addition to the floods in the Midwest and the fires in California, there are forest fires in North Carolina. While a fire is near Caron Int.'s facility, it's business as usual there. Marketing Director Ed Hamrick told CLN, "While the air is thick with smoke, and breathing outside is sometimes difficult, it has in no way impacted our production or affected our products (no smoke smell in the yarn, etc.). Our production and warehousing areas are "conditioned" and free from the smoke. Manufacturing and shipping are proceeding as normal."

ART MATERIALS. CLN is hearing that sales are increasing. The cause? Some think it's due to Baby Boomers retiring and picking up (or returning to) painting. ... The Ready to Paint series from Search Press (Watercolour Flowers, Watercolour Landscapes, Watercolour Trees and Woodlands) was featured on A Good Age, a retirement and aging blog written for The Patriot Ledger (circ. 51,105), the daily newspaper in Quincy, MA. To read the article, visit http://blogs.townonline.com/goodage/?p=1432. ... The number of art materials exhibitors at the upcoming CHA Summer Show is up 20% over 2007.

ART. To commemorate the 25th Anniversary of FolkArt paint, Plaid was invited to install a temporary exhibit at the Decorative Arts Collection Museum in Atlanta. Plaid's exhibit includes works from such notable artists as Priscilla Hauser, Bette Byrd, Ginger Edwards, Donna Dewberry, and many others who have been instrumental in the development and ongoing popularity of FolkArt paint. The museum opened in November, 2007, and houses works of artistic, historical, and contemporary significance. Some pieces date back to the mid 1700s and include historic American painted tin-ware and calligraphic drawings, plus fraktur, tinsel, and theorem paintings.

PRODUCT LINE FOR $ALE. Can be added to your existing product lines: Activity Kits, including Color Your Own T-Shirts and Color Your Own Posters. Many original designs, including science, nature, fun, fine art, etc. Educational, fun line with solid potential for museum, toy, specialty, and chain stores. Email mn@thejnet.com for detailed info.

AGREEMENT. 3M has formed a joint marketing agreement with Stampin' Up!, in which select Stampin' Up! projects and the website's URL will be printed on the front of the packaging of 3M craft products.

STIMULUS. As of May 30, the Treasury Department said 57.43 million payments totaling $50.041 billion have been mailed, just under half the $106.7 billion the government expects to mail to consumers.

CHA DEADLINES. This Thursday is the last day Summer Show exhibitors can submit product for the Innovations showcase ... Pre-registration for non-CHA members is Friday ... Exhibitors can now ship press kits to the warehouse.

PEOPLE. Susan Lyne resigned as CEO of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia. ... Best wishes to Judith Joyce, the founder of American Traditional. She had given the reins of the company to her son, Michael Barker, and now has joined the Peace Corps. She will be stationed in St. Lucia as a business advisor.

STOCKS. A.C. Moore: $7.97, up $0.98.. Jo-Ann: $23.85, up $1.34 ... Wal-Mart: $59.18, up $1.44 ... Dow Jones: 12,307.35, down 2.6%. (Note: All changes in price are since 6/13 and are exclusive of dividends.)

To see the latest listings by the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column, or click HERE.

1. Your sweetie says, 'Let's go upstairs and make love,' and you answer, "Pick one; I can't do both!"

2. Your friends compliment you on your new alligator shoes and you're barefoot.

3. A sexy babe catches your fancy and your pacemaker opens the garage door.

4. Going braless pulls all the wrinkles out of your face.

5. You are cautioned to slow down by the doctor instead of by the police.

6. "Getting a little action" means you don't need to take any fiber today.

7. "Getting lucky" means you find your car in the parking lot.

8. An "all nighter" means not getting up to use the bathroom.

9. You are not sure these are jokes?

xxx

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