Date: February 2, 2009
Vol. XII, No. 3

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: ACTING TOO QUICKLY 

I thought the Patriot Act, rushed into law after 9/11, was ill-conceived and included portions that were unconstitutional. As you'll read below, the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act, rushed into law after the Chinese-lead-paint-in-toys uproar last year, is an expensive, confusing nightmare for the industry. Fortunately, calmer heads seem to have prevailed for the moment (see below). But the fact remains, Congress does not have a good track record when it acts quickly. Now Congress is rushing to pass the economic stimulus bill.

Uh-oh.

Scene & Heard. Marilyn Murphy, Past President of TNNA's board of directors, reports on the San Diego show and the state of the needlearts business.

Business-Wise. Ever have to give a presentation to a class, a buyer, or a group? Here are some tips from studying the efforts of our most-heard speechmakers: the presidents of the U.S.

Tech Topics. Twitter? Pay-per-click ads? Heather Gooch continues her explanation of how retailers can use the new media to improve their sales.

Kizer & Bender. Actions you can take RIGHT NOW to help your store.

Kate's Collage. Bill Skinner accepted CHA's Industry Achievement award on behalf of the late David Cunningham, the founder of Plaid Enterprises. Here's what he said.

(Note: To read the columns, click on the column title in the left-hand column. If it's not the column you expected, click on the Reload or Refresh button of your browser.)

Ok, you're back from the TNNA and/or CHA shows – our biggest shows of the year. If you were a teacher and they were your students, what grade would you give them? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

CLN voters are expecting the recession to last for a while. No one in this unscientific poll thought the economy would start growing again in the first half of 2009, and 10.8% thought growth wouldn't resume until 2011 or later.

Others were more optimistic: 32.4% thought the rebound would begin in the second half of this year, while 35.1% thought it would start in the first half of 2010. Another 21.6% predicted the second half of next year.

Last Friday the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission issued a one-year stay of enforcement of the new standards included in the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act. Some of the new, stricter standards were to go into effect Feb. 10.

The Commission's website said, "The stay of enforcement provides some temporary, limited relief to the crafters, children’s garment manufacturers and toy makers who had been subject to the testing and certification required under the CPSIA. These businesses will not need to issue certificates based on testing of their products until additional decisions are issued by the Commission. However, all businesses, including, but not limited to, handmade toy and apparel makers, crafters and home-based small businesses, must still be sure that their products conform to all safety standards and similar requirements, including the lead and phthalates provisions of the CPSIA."

Don't come to any conclusions yet. Read the complete statement: www.cpsc.gov/cpscpub/prerel/prhtml09/09115.html. The official website: www.cpsc.gov/about/cpsia/cpsia.html.

Furthermore, the Toy Industry Assn. is not as relieved as one might think. To read the TIA's reaction, visit http://tia.informz.net/tia/archives/archive_228988.html.

The members of the Commission voted unanimously for the delay, no doubt because of the volume of complaints and questions the CPSC received. The delay was announced shortly after CHA CEO Steve Berger had emailed a letter of concern. Another example: Two members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Reps. Joe Barton (R, TX) and George Radanovich (R, CA), asked Committee Chair Henry Waxman (D, CA) to hold a hearing on the effects of the new law, saying in a letter, "It is becoming clear that, without the rapid application of some common sense, the new law also holds potential to impose vast economic hardship without actually protecting anyone."

STATS. The show was somewhat smaller, but attendance was about the same as last year. The last day was quite slow for many exhibitors, perhaps because many attendees did not stay for the entire show. Once again the scrapbook section was the most crowded.

MOOD. Most exhibitors seemed pleased with the show; expectations were not particularly high, but the show met them. Judging from reports by retailers about the state of their business, it appears our industry is faring far better than most retail industries. Many exhibitors seemed more concerned about the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act and the financial well-being of some of their customers than they were about booth traffic, orders, etc.

AWARDS. The Innovations (new product) awards were won by Ultimate Crafters Companion Master, Golden Artist Color, AccuQuilt, Duncan, and Spiral Eye Needles. The best new product award went to Duncan for its Tulip Custom Dye Color Kit. ... The Exhibiting With Excellence awards were given to Dennis Daniels, Glitz Design, AccuQuilt, Sarah-n-Dipitous Designs, Alumilite Corp., and Serif. ... The Golden Press Kit awards went to Ellison (gold), Chatter Box (silver), and When Creativity Knocks (bronze). The best designer press kit was awarded to Sarah-n-Dipitous Designs. The Green Product of the Year award went to ClearBags. Caron's Simply Soft Eco was first runner-up, and Strathmore's Charcoal Papers received an honorable mention.

AWARDS, II. Independent retailer Emma Gebo (Sierra's) received CHA's Meritorious Award of Honor for her service to the association. ... Bill Mangelsen, founder of Mangelsen's and Makin's Clay, and David Cunningham, founder of Plaid, were named posthumously for CHA's Industry Achievement awards for their service to the industry. ... The Special Recognition award was given to Pat Catan (Darice) and the Pat Catan Family Foundation for their philanthropic efforts supporting various children's causes, including childhood cancer research.

ELECTIONS. Board Officers: Mike McCooey (Plaid), Chair; Larry Olliges (Dee's Crafts), Vice Chair; and Jane Anne Davis (Blumenthal/Lansing), Secretary. ... Mark Hill (Creativity) and Georganne Bender (Kizer & Bender) were elected to three-year terms on the board, replacing Bob Ferguson (Ferguson Merchandising/Ben Franklin) and Herb Lantinga (Notions Marketing), whose terms had expired. Rob Bostick (Judikins and Stamp, Stamp, Stamp) was re-elected to a second term. Jim Scatena (FloraCraft) received the Chairman's gavel as the outgoing Chair.

CELEBRITIES. Debra Norville's keynote speech was very successful. ... Paris Hilton's appearance drew a huge crowd, so large that many of the nearby exhibitors were blocked from meeting with buyers. ... Others making appearances were Vanna White, Jane Seymour, Claudine Hellmuth, Tim Holtz, Suze Weinberg, Mary Engelbreit, Donna Dewberry, Katie Hacker, and Krystal Wick.

TRENDS. More "green" products, jewelry-making, kids crafts, embellishments, basic crafts, and a "vintage" look. ... To learn more about scrapbook/paper trends, visit www.scrapbookupdate.com.

RESEARCH. The updated CHA Attitude & Usage Study reported a decline in the size of the industry and in various categories, but the margin of error was such that the Study could not say definitively that overall business was down. However, to CLN's knowledge this was the first time the Study showed a decline. To read the complete study, visit www.craftandhobby.org and click on Research.

QUOTATION. "You make a living by what you earn, and you make a life by what you give." – Dave Catan (Darice), accepting CHA's Special Recognition award on behalf of the Pat Catan family for the company's charitable work. (Note: To read the acceptance speech by Bill Skinner on behalf of the late David Cunningham, click on Kate's Collage.)

DATES. The Summer Show is July 28-30, followed by the Super (consumer) Show ... The '10 Winter Show is Jan. 24-27 in Anaheim.

CUT BACK/EXPAND. While some exhibitors reduced the size of their booth and/or the number of new products and booth staffers, Ellison expanded, adding a 20'x30' stage hosted by spokesperson Julianna Hudgins who worked with a series of guests showcasing Sizzix products used for appliqué, jewelry-making, scrapbooking, home décor, cardmaking, etc. ... Plaid, known for introducing numerous new products each year, unveiled a whopping 773 new products, the largest number in company history. ... Midwest Design Imports scored a hit with an impressive new line, Wee Creations.

A.C. Moore Founder and former CEO Jack Parker and Janet Parker were walking the show floor.

Wal-Mart is expected to fill the vacant craft buyer position next month. It has been open since August. Sales of craft basic products are reportedly selling well, regardless.

Some tech-savvy retailers were taking photos and placing the pictures and comments on their blogs so their customers were reading about the show and new products before the retailer returned home.

"Not one of my stores from Utah came to the show." – Sales Rep

Two leaders in their respective fields, Randy Putnam & Associates and Craft Marketing Connections, are working together to provide clients with a wide range of services, including sales planning and relationship management, research, product development, category management and analysis, marketing, public relations, design, etc. Visit www.rpaa.com or www.craftmarketingconnections.com.

"A problem with the industry today: too many company leaders have no passion for the business; it's just number."

Three well-known vendors did not exhibit and, as usual, that sparked rumors.

Attendance at various January gift shows was down.

Floral importers are rolling back recent price increases.

TV ratings for PBS industry-related series such as Hands On Crafts for Kids, hosted and produced by Kathie Stull (KS, Inc. Productions), are "way up."

"Everyone is worried about losing their jobs." -- Industry analyst

Bill George resigned as President/CEO of Delta Creative as of Jan. 31. The company promoted Mac Ritchie to replace him.

1. The economy – and the industry – will be a confusing mess until the national economy settles down and consumers and businesses get over being shell-shocked. When the dust settles, everyone will have a better idea of where things stand. Summer, at the very earliest.

2. 2009 will be a year of consolidation. The market leaders in each category will remain that way, but some of their lesser competition will fade away.

3. Vendors' top concerns: Can Michaels service its incredible debt load and management fees? Can A.C. Moore right the ship? Can independents weather the recession?

4. Basic crafts will continue to grow as consumers continue their frugal ways after Christmas. There will be more "staycations" and less travel in 2009. That could mean fewer photos taken that need to be scrapped.

5. Trade shows will be somewhat smaller.

6. As long as the chains continue to invent and demand more entitlements, all the while bragging about increasing their direct import programs, they will see fewer new products from vendors.

7. More vendors will develop products for other industries.

8. More vendors will move production back from China to the U.S. or produce new lines here rather than in Asia.

9. Wal-Mart's continuing withdrawal from fabric will be a boon to Jo-Ann, Hancock, Hobby Lobby, and independents.

10. Before the stock market collapse, the industry seemed to benefit from Baby Boomers retiring and resuming their interest in crafts. That has stopped for now, but will resume again.

11. The "next big thing" won't happen in the current environment.

12. Look for an increase in professional craft producers and DIY weddings, thanks to the economy. (The average cost for a wedding is $28,732, according to The Wedding Report Inc.)

13. Look for e-commerce sites to be forced to charge state sales taxes.

14. A year from now the industry (and probably the U.S.) will be leaner, but stronger.

15. The vagueness of the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act will continue to give vendors headaches, but at least there's time for CHA and others to get a seat at the table to convince the CPSC to implement the law in a thoughtful, intelligent manner.

(Comment: What are your industry predictions for the year? Email your thoughts to CLN at mike@clnonline.com.)

... The world carried on with newsworthy events:

1. The Commerce Department reported the economy in the fourth quarter showed the greatest decline in more than 26 years. The gross national product fell 3.8%, but economists had forecast much worse.

2. Michaels announced it would lay off approximately 100 employees at its headquarters over a period of 90 to 120 days, and another 200 jobs will be "co-sourced." Layoffs will begin Mar. 27. ... Michaels also announced a deal with Tata Consultancy Services to handle certain in-house functions such as information technology, information services, and accounts payable functions. (Note: Before the announcement, there were rumors on the CHA show floor that the company would also announce some store closings. It did not.)

3. Hobby Lobby's and the Green family's donations to higher education continues. HL pledged $10 million to Southeastern University, a Christian liberal-arts college in Florida. The pledge came after Southeastern's president was named president of Oral Roberts University, to which the Green family had previously donated tens of millions to save the school from closing.

4. Hancock announced layoffs of approximately 30 corporate and store support positions, about 9% of the corporate (non-store personnel) workforce, and elimination of company obligations under certain employee benefit programs. Hancock expects to incur charges of approximately $0.3 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 for employee termination benefits, but the 2009 total cost reduction is expected to save approximately $3.2 million. CEO/President Jane Aggers said, "Although we are encouraged by our 1.5% increase in same-store sales over the holiday period, we have to ensure our expense structure allows us to be successful despite the broad economic issues the retail industry is facing." The Clarion (MS) Ledger also reported Hancock will reduce spending on stores by $4 million, or about 45%.

5. Wedbush Morgan upgraded Jo-Ann stock from Hold to Buy, saying the company should benefit from market-share gains in sewing, global sourcing, and favorable real estate trends. ... Travis Smith was promoted from Exec VP, Merchandising and Marketing to Chief Operating Officer. He retains his current responsibilities while adding responsibility for store operations and supply chain logistics.

6. The private equity firm Bain Capital wrote down third-quarter values for investments in a variety of companies, including Michaels, of which Bain is half owner with The Blackstone Group, Reuters reported. In a letter sent to investors, as of Sept. 30, its investment in Michaels was written down to $377 million, or 0.65 times cost. "As we look toward fourth quarter valuations, we would note that the economic environment has continued to deteriorate which may imply further write-downs at year end," the letter said.

7. Target will cut 600 existing jobs and 400 open positions, mainly at its Minneapolis headquarters; will close its Little Rock distribution center, which employs 500, later this year; will freeze senior management salaries; and will limit new store openings.

8. Incoming Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke will continue to push the retailer to become greener, including encouraging suppliers to adopt more sustainable practices, Reuters reported. ... Wal-Mart bought Distribucion y Servicio, the largest grocer in Chile, with 180+ stores, 85 financial-services offices, and 10 shopping centers.

9. Cranston Print Works will lay off about 75 workers, mostly in central Massachusetts, as it phases out a fabric-printing operation that dates back to 1824. Production is moving to China. To learn more, visit www.pbn.com/detail/39831.html.

Many vendors are worried because they can't buy insurance on their receivables with some of their larger customers. They wonder if that's a sign the retailer may be close to bankruptcy. But here's one vendor's take on the subject:

"The truth is the whole insurance industry has been hammered (like banks), and so buying receivables insurance at a time when retailing is at a 40-year low is like buying flood insurance the day before a tropical storm. You can't buy receivables insurance on any retailer except maybe Wal-Mart (which is like buying that same flood insurance on Pikes Peak)."

He added, "Michaels and A.C. Moore both have pretty good liquidity (cash availability) so we're not worried. At least not now. If retailing does not pick up, they could be a problem later in the year."

An excerpt of an email from a craft retailer who is closing her doors:

"Our going-out-of-business sale has been really successful, but where were all of these folks who are saying they are so sorry we are closing (since we’re so much better than the two Michaels stores, our closest brick-and-mortar competition) when we were running the business?

"I’d estimate that at least half of the folks are saying they were in the store for the first time. When I asked them why, they replied that they’ve been too busy with work to do any crafts lately or told me about some major life-changing event hit their family over the last few years that took up all of their time.

"I predict that quite a lot of retailers are going to be hearing the same thing for some time to come…." – Name Withheld

Note: The following is from Pam Riddell, head of the Riddell Group, a manufacturer's rep organization in the Kentucky-Tennessee area. She also runs the Maps2Memories program, an excellent resource for independent stores (www.maps2memories.com).

I am encouraged. I feel like the independent retailers who've survived thus far will see a brighter 2009. While my stores didn't boom for the holidays, they didn't bottom out, either. December is not traditionally a busy month for them so that's not much of a surprise. They're all hanging in there and we'll see what January brings.

I'm seeing more of a return to basics. My tool sales over the last year are definitely up, while consumables are down. This makes sense to me, especially in tough economic times. Buy an embellishment for $5 and use it on 1-2 pages. That's it – gone. Or buy a tool (guaranteed for life), pay $16, but use it forever. No downside to that.

In fact, one of my current projects is a consumer event set for Kentucky 2/20. It's being sponsored by Fiskars and we hope to attract 300 consumers. Hopefully, all of our area Kentucky and Tennessee retailers will be participating, and we already have 62 consumers signed up. So consumer interest is still strong!

I do see that all of my manufacturers are adjusting releases to fit demand; in other words, scaling back. And I think that's a good thing. For far too long I've been hearing from retailers that they're overwhelmed with all the "new." I agree.

In my experience teaching and working in the craft industry, I find older women (40 and up) are looking for a place to hang out. When one of the local scrapbook stores closed, these women were in tears. Not so much for the store closing, but they would no longer have a place to stop by when they were bored or lonely. It really was their only social outlet.

One mistake I feel independent stores make is that they hire young girls who know nothing about the product and have very little in common with the customers. They don't know the art of chit chat and how to develop a sense of friendship with customers.

I also see that these stores don't pay attention to their class room areas, which helps build customer loyalty. One reason I designed a studio in my home: good lighting, big tables, and comfortable chairs. – Lisa Itatini

1. In a previous issue CLN reported on the rising power of consumers and cited Craft Sassy, a business that allowed consumers to design their own scrapbook paper, as an example of how consumers can bypass even retailers and designers. Kim Guyman of Scrapbook Biz points out this service could be of use to them, too: "Kit clubs could offer their own custom papers to increase the exclusivity and desirability of their kits. Designers can sell small quantities of limited-edition and exclusive designs to create a following of fans. Retailers can sell custom papers reflecting the culture of their community and showcase local landmarks or stories. (Where would you ever find a paper about the Corn Palace? But with this, it's possible to do!) This service removes the financial barriers traditionally associated with the large-scale press runs usually needed to print paper lines." For more on Craft Sassy, visit www.craftsassy.com.

2. Jessica Helfand caused a furor among scrapbookers because of her comments regarding her book, Scrapbooks: An American History, published by Yale Press in November. Much of what Helfand, a classically trained graphic designer who is a Senior Critic at Yale School of Art, said is condescending. My niece, who has an MFA degree in graphic design and teaches at the U. of Kansas, feels the same way about most scrapbook designs.

There's a parallel here: For decades (centuries?) folk art, created by untrained artisans, was looked down upon by the fine art establishment. Eventually folk art has been given the credit it deserved. Isn't scrapbooking essentially the folk art of graphic design?

A Helfand interview is at www.salon.com/mwt/feature/2008/12/04/scrapbook. Google "Jessica Helfand Scrapbooks" for much more.

QUOTATION. "Angels were on the wings of the plane on Thursday. I am soooo happy to be home and hug my family. Amazing how life comes into a totally new perspective after something like this." – Alyson Bell of Coats & Clark, who was a passenger on the US Airways plane that crashed into the Hudson River, a crash now known as "The Miracle on the Hudson"

INAUGURATION. Retired industry veteran Jim Hair (Sakura) has posted some wonderful photos of the inauguration. Visit www.flickr.com/photos/jimhair.

2009. The National Retail Federation forecast a decline of 0.5% in retail revenue for the year, starting with a 2.5 percent drop in the first half.

SALES. ShopperTrak, a research firm that monitors customer traffic, predicted retail sales could fall by 4% and foot traffic could drop 16.4% in the first quarter, Reuters reported. Co-founder Bill Martin did predict improvement in the second quarter because a) the Easter shopping season is in the second quarter, not the first, and b) middle-class tax cuts from the new administration should help.

VALENTINE'S. According to a National Retail Federation’s survey, the average consumer plans to spend $122.98 on Valentine’s Day, up slightly from last year’s $119.67. However, traditional gifts such as candy, flowers, and jewelry will see a slight decrease, with more consumers preferring gifts of experience and gift cards.

CRIME. A staffer in The Blackstone Group's financial advisory group was charged by the Securities & Exchange Commission with insider trading in connection with the 2006 acquisition of supermarket chain Albertson's. Blackstone is the owner of Michaels, along with Bain Capital. Ramesh Chakrapani is alleged to have helped his parents and friends on information he was privy to while working in Blackstone's London office. In a letter to investors, CEO Steve Schwarzman said he was "both saddened and outraged" by the news, the Financial Times reported. That Blackstone division is an independent provider of financial and mergers and acquisitions advisory services.

CRIME. A Hobby Lobby manager in Greenville, SC and three accomplices are charged with stealing more than $1 million in merchandise and selling it at two stores, one less than a mile from the HL store, the Greenville News reported. The HL manager, the owners of the two stores selling the merchandise, and the son of one of the storeowners who worked in an HL warehouse have been charged

INTERNET. Duncan has launched a new site, www.ILoveToCreate.com.

PAINTING. Interactive Artist magazine will launch on Valentine's Day. It promises to offer video and written lessons from well known teachers, new product information, trade show and convention info, a Virtual Gallery where subscribers can see others' works and post their own, and a media library with art books and instructional DVDs. It's for students and artists of all skill levels. The introductory subscription price is $19.95. Dawn Knowles is the Publisher/CEO. Visit www.InteractiveArtistMagazine.org.

PETITION. Musician Quincy Jones has started a petition to ask President Obama to appoint a Secretary of the Arts. While many other countries have had Ministers of Art or Culture for centuries, the United States has never created such a position. To read and sign the petition, visit www.petitiononline.com/esnyc/petition.html.

DEADLINE. March 2 is the deadline for submitting proposals for business seminars and Demo-nars for the CHA Summer Show in Orlando. For info, email Amie Kolodziej at akolodziej@craftandhobby.org or call 201-835-1202. February 16 is the deadline for sponsoring workshops at the Summer Show and the Super (consumer) Show. Email Avery Dykman at adykman@craftandhobby.org.

MOVIES. Mike Dolan, who operates Scrapbook 911, a retail store in San Antonio, with his wife Michelle recently received a call from a Houston marketing firm asking if they wanted free passes to a new movie, New in Town, starring Renee Zellweger and Harry Connick Jr. Mike was told there was a lot of scrapbooking in the movie and the firm sent posters, 60 passes, and an assortment of movie-based items to use as give-aways. For more about the movie, visit http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1809981031/info.

GIFTS. Gifts & Decorative Accessories' report on the California Gift Show, the LA Gift & Home Furnishings Market, and the CMC Gift & Home Market : "Most vendors reported that the order-writing was strong, with several admitting that many customers were being a bit more conservative in their buying – a not-surprising trend in view of the current economy, they reflected. Also not surprising, the market saw fewer out-of-region buyers in attendance."

BANKRUPTCY. The lawyers in the Rag Shop's liquidation bankruptcy are still pestering vendors to pay back any payments the chain made in the 90 days prior to the bankruptcy filing. Rag Shop, which was owned by the private equity firm Sun Capital, had already forced its vendors to write down 75% of what they were owed a few months before the bankruptcy filing. One vendor said he was telling the lawyers to "pound sand."

MEDIA. KnittingDaily.com has released its second free e-book, Knitting Socks with Knitting Daily: 5 Free Sock Knitting Patterns, a collection of the site's top hand-knit sock patterns, available at www.knittingdaily.com/5-Free-Knitting-Sock-Patterns.

SHOWS. Online registration for the Memories Expo show Mar. 27-28 in Columbus, OH begins tomorrow. Visit www.MemoriesScrapbookingExpo.com.

STOCKS. A.C. Moore: $1.69, up $0.22 ... Hancock: $0.40, down $0.11 ... Jo-Ann: $12.77, down $1.27 ... Wal-Mart: $47.12, down $4.44 ... Dow Jones: 8,000.86, down 3.4%. (Note: All changes in price are since 1/16 and are exclusive of dividends.)

To see the latest listings from the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

The New Year is a time for resolutions, often regarding exercise – and we certainly walked for miles the trade shows – so consider these, sent by a subscriber:

1. Walking can add minutes to your life. This enables you at 85 years old to spend an additional five months in a nursing home at $7,000 per month.

2. My grandpa started walking five miles a day when he was 60. Now he's 97 years old and we don't know where he is.

3. I like long walks, especially when they are taken by people who annoy me.

4. I have to walk early in the morning, before my brain figures out what I'm doing.

5. I joined a health club last year, spent about 400 bucks. Haven't lost a pound. Apparently you have to go there.

6. Every time I hear the dirty word "exercise," I wash my mouth out with chocolate.

7. I do have flabby thighs, but fortunately my stomach covers them.

8. The advantage of exercising every day is so when you die, they'll say, "Well, she looks good, doesn't she?"

9. If you are going to try cross-country skiing, start with a small country.

10. I know I got a lot of exercise the last few years ... just getting over the hill.

11. We all get heavier as we get older, because there's a lot more information in our heads. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

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4. Creative Leisure News is published the first and third Mondays of each month. Your next issue will be Monday, February 16. Happy Valentine's!

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