Date: April 20, 2009
Vol. XII, No. 8

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: THE TROUBLE WITH EXPERTS 

Last week USA Today published a report questioning the validity of predictions by retail gurus, and how various chains such as Eddie Bauer, Ann Taylor, Lane Bryant, and others have been hurt by prognostications by retail "experts."

One problem with these experts: they always seem to forget that Easter moves around from year to year (April 11 this year, March 23 last year). They always seem surprised when shopping for an early Easter helps same-store sales in March and a late Easter helps in April. Sales weren't great this April, but somehow that's ok because they were better than the experts predicted.

Another problem: Rumors, truthful or not, spread that a retailer is in trouble. That makes banks more stringent about credit, vendors hesitant to ship, and consumers leery of shopping.

Michaels has been hurt by such talk, which probably is what motivated execs to send a letter (see below) to vendors. Previously a vendor/CLN subscriber had sent me an analysis of Michaels' finances by a credit rating agency. It was so filled with jargon that I had no idea if Michaels was – or wasn't – in trouble. So I sent the analysis to another CLN subscriber, a retired banker whose wife is a retailer. His take: Michaels is fine now, but may be in trouble if the U.S. credit system is still frozen when Michaels has to refinance some of its debt in 2011.

Hey, if the credit system is still frozen – see the results of the CLN poll – two years from now, we'll all be in such deep doo-do0 that Michaels will be the least of anyone's problems.

Business-Wise. What an airline pilot can teach you about leadership. How about landing a plane in the Hudson River?

Kizer & Bender. What a hockey coach can teach you about building a successful team. How about winning the greatest upset in sports history?

"Benny Da Buyer". What a liquor superstore can teach you about customer service. Is a bigger store better? Not necessarily, according to Bill Gardner.

Tech Topics. Thinking about buying an iPhone? Here are some key applications for the iPhone that can make you more productive and efficient.

"Vinny Da Vendor". Looking for some positive news to show your lenders? Here's a collection of positive news items in CLN in the past six months.

Kate's Collage. The latest research survey on consumers' gift/spending plans for Mother's Day offers some real potential for our retailers.

(Note: Click on the column title in the left-hand column. If it's not the column you expected, click on the Reload or Refresh button of your browser.)

This question is inspired by a note from a successful scrapbook retailer: "We have been reevaluating our operations. We had two of our girls graduate from college and left to pursue 'real' jobs. We did not replace either of them. I did an analysis of customers by weekday and hour over the last two years. I now only have one person in the store (rather than two) for most mornings and on Sundays. We used to have three on Saturdays, and now it will be two. We are watching this very closely as we do not want to impact customer service."

So here's the question: If your business – retailing, manufacturing, importing, distributing, or publishing – has employees, have any of them been laid off recently, or had their hours reduced? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

As if making or retailing our industry's products isn't hard enough. A majority of retailers and non-retailers report having their business or personal line(s) of credit reduced since the economic slump last fall. Among retailers, 52.9% say their credit has been reduced, and another 5.9% think it will happen to them. Only 41.2% say they have not been affected.

For non-retailers, the results were similar: 50.0% have already had their credit line reduced, while another 6.7% think it will happen. Only 43.3% have not been affected.

"Despite the current economic crisis, some retailers continue to thrive," said National Retail Federation President/CEO Tracy Mullin. "Companies who choose to reinvest in their employees will be rewarded with higher morale, lower turnover, and, ultimately, a stronger company."

A shining example is Hobby Lobby, which increased the minimum wage of full-time hourly employees to $10/hour, effective immediately. That's 52% higher than the national minimum wage of $6.55. The increase and other pay raises for full-time hourly employees earning up to $13/hour will raise the pay of 6,900+ employees, some by up to nearly $600/month.

"Our employees are the backbone of our company, and we believe that giving them the opportunity to share in our success is the right thing to do," said CEO/Founder David Green. "This is part of our continuing efforts to reward our employees for their hard work and integrate them into the growth of our company."

When gas prices increased, HL gave employees a permanent $0.25/hour raise to help offset cost-of-living increases. This year HL expects to open about 25 stores.

"This minimum wage increase is the most exciting initiative I’ve been involved with since I started the company," Green said. "We believe the success of Hobby Lobby is directly attributable to our outstanding employees and our strong corporate values, which are based on Biblical principles, including integrity, service to others, and giving back to those in need."

For the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, net sales were essentially flat at $276.4 million, but same-store sales rose 2.1%. Operating income improved to $3.1 million, up $7.1 million from fiscal 2007.

There was a net loss of $12.4 million ($0.65/share), down from $33.3 million ($1.76) a year ago. The $12.4 million loss included $8.2 million of reorganization expenses and $2.2 million of interest expense related to bankruptcy claims. EBITDA (cash flow) increased $6.6 million to $9.7 million. Debt is down approximately $25.8 million since emerging from bankruptcy.

The gross margin was 43.3%, up from 42.6% of the prior year. Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased to $112.1 million (40.6% of sales) from $117.8 million (42.6%), due primarily to a $6.2 million curtailment gain provided by the changes made to company retirement programs in 2008.

President/CEO Jane Aggers said, "We have made significant progress during 2008 in our effort to position Hancock for the future. The results of these efforts are demonstrated by our positive sales growth, significant increase in EBITDA, and considerable reduction in borrowings since we emerged [from bankruptcy] – all of which have continued in 2009. We are optimistic that we can continue to improve our operating results, despite the challenging economic environment."

During 2008, Hancock opened 1 store, closed 7, relocated 4, and remodeled 63. The current store count is 263.

The board of directors also extended CEO Jane Aggers' contract another 30 months with a base salary of $450,000.

While retail sales of our products appear to be better than those in many other retail industries, companies are being hurt by economic issues that have nothing to do with the consumer's interest, or lack thereof, in products. Some examples:

1. A well known industry company owned by a conglomerate is performing just fine, but the corporate parent is in trouble. The parent ordered the company to cancel all consumer advertising for 2009.

2. An even larger company called CLN last fall and asked if it could postpone paying for its subscription until after Jan. 1. The corporate parent had cancelled all spending for the remainder of 2008.

3. As CLN reported in the last issue, a vendor said CitiBank suddenly canceled his $100,000 line of credit shortly before laying off 72,000 employees and asking the government for $45 billion. "Needless to say, this loss of credit sent our FICO score into the dumpster," the vendor said. "Now all of our credit (lines and cards) has been lowered to what we already owe."

4. A mid-size vendor told CLN his bank won't give credit to any manufacturer who sells to retailers.

5. Another vendor, in business 18 years with a perfect credit rating and debt free, was approached by two banks wanting to give him a line of credit. "We decided to inquire about opening a line of credit and/or acquiring a business loan to help us through this difficult economic period," he said. "What an eye opener!"

The banks wanted reams of information, but insisted that any loan or credit line must be guaranteed by the owner's personal possessions. The vendor didn't want to risk his house, but he heard the Small Business Administration had additional money from the stimulus bill and would loan money if a small company had been turned down by two banks. So he spent days filling out the paperwork so he could be rejected by the banks and then qualify for the new SBA money. "Then I found out they will only lend to a business that is 'new' (five years or less)," the vendor said," "so what are we to do?"

Janlynn has licensed all the assets of Design Your Own™ Toys and will manufacture, sell, and distribute DYO products world-wide. DYO products include a line of authentic sports equipment kits for children to personalize and make their own (including Soccer Ball, Basketball, Baseball, Skateboard, etc.). DYO also produces Double Bobble™ Bobble Head kits (including Baseball Player, Cheerleader, etc.) that can be personalized using the paints included with the kit. DYO’s creative team will continue to develop innovative children’s activity products for Janlynn.

"Janlynn saw how well DYO’s wonderfully designed sports activity kits performed when given a chance at retail. We knew instantly that we wanted to compete in this game with DYO on our team," stated Janlynn CFO Andrew Goetsch, "We are excited to broaden the reach of these innovative products, which absolutely inspire kids to personalize, use, and enjoy – it is impossible to open up a kit and not want to immediately get into the game."

"I was instantly drawn to the wealth of resources, depth of enthusiasm, and integrity evident at Janlynn." stated DYO President Lewis Rudzki. "With Janlynn’s backing, I am excited to focus DYO’s attention towards designing future innovations that will inspire children to create and play with the next generation of DYO toys."

To see the DYO products on Janlynn's site,  click HERE. To see the complete DYO line, visit http://dyotoys.com.

Many retailers reported poor sales but they weren't as bad as many analysts expected, and the late Easter impacted the sales numbers. The late Easter was expected to boost April sales for many.

Wal-Mart's blamed the late Easter for a same-store sales increase of only 1.4%, lower than analysts polled by Thomson Reuters predicted, the Associated Press reported. "Based on the initial strength of our sales this week, we expect Easter to drive April sales performance," said Vice Chair Eduardo Castro-Wright.

The Int. Council of Shopping Centers said same-store sales fell 2.1%, but ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira said that includes a 3% decline related to the later Easter.

The letter was dated April 6 and signed by President/COO Shelley Broader and CFO Elaine D. Crowley. Some excerpts:

"Many of you have surfaced questions regarding Michaels' financial stability and liquidity.... We want to reassure you that we are fully able to comfortably meet all debt obligations while continuing to invest in the long-term success of the company. Michaels is able to generate strong operating cash flow and has secure financing arrangements with expiration dates of 2011 or later, which means we do not have short term credit worries.

"... Our 2009 operating plan reduces expenditures, while allowing sufficient capital to continue to invest in new stores and our long-term strategic initiatives focused on profitably growing the company. While Michaels has looked at its own operations to secure its future as a world class retailer, we ask our vendor partners to carefully evaluate their own operations to determine if there are opportunities to enhance operating efficiencies, reduce overhead expenses, and improve performance standards. We are well positioned to withstand the challenging economic environment. We ask you to do your part so we can together continue to offer our mutual customers exciting new products at a price our customers are willing to pay."

(Comment: Given a) the state of the economy; b), the troubles companies are having with their credit lines; c), the new product safety testing law; d) the constant pressure from retailers to increase entitlements and lower prices; and e) the price increases they've faced for raw materials and health insurance, any vendor who is not trying to improve efficiencies and reduce overhead won't be in business long.)

CLN was mailed a copy of a letter signed by "Some Very Concerned Dimensions Employees" that was sent to a long list of local, Pennsylvania, and federal officials. Here are excerpts:

"Dimensions Crafts, located at 1801 N. 12th Street in Reading, will be closing its manufacturing site by the end of 2009. All jobs here will terminate, and all administrative functions will operate out of Chicago IL an Clifton NJ. Our manufacturing operation will cease to exist, and our parent company, Wilton Crafts, will warehouse imported product into Chicago.

"The announcement was made on Monday, March 9th, citing financial stress and the state of the economy as the reasons for the closure. Any financial stress they may be feeling is of their own accord; we want you to know that as a division of Wilton Crafts, Dimensions actually reached and surpassed its budget goals for 2008 – one of the few divisions to do so and make a profit for the company. In fact, Dimensions has been a profitable company since its inception 32 years ago, as well as being a well respected leader in the crafts industry, selling qulity products that are manufactured here, not overseas. Wilton's plan is to outsource our products to companies overseas, not only risking the loss of a quality product, but also the loss of our timely delivery and excellent customer service. This is in spite of our profitability, which only leads to the conclusion that they are not interested in manufacturing in the US. We are the only manufacturing company in the Wilton portfolio, and as such, we do not conform to the rest of their business plan. We feel this closure is not necessary, and rather than government giving companies incentives to do business overseas, they should be penalized for closing a company with long term profitability, an impeccable reputation, worldwide recognition and outstanding service to the crafting community. Displacing 180 people (over 200 if we include those already released since Aug of 2007 when the acquisition first occurred), and moving jobs overseas will not only cause the local economy to suffer, but also the many other companies – suppliers and services, we now deal with. The trickle-down effect will be felt far and wide, as we have suppliers from here to California.

"This is the endemic problem many small companies are facing in this country, and it's time to put a stop to it. Keep American jobs in America – stop giving these large corporations tax incentives to deal overseas; in fact, penalize them for doing so, and give companies that keep jobs here incentives to continue to do so. It has to start somewhere. Let it start here, now, with whatever assistance you can give us to keep this facility open, and keep hundreds of local families off unemployment, which is already draining state and federal budgets to the limit."

Dear Creative Imaginations Retailers,

We should all be thankful that we are in an industry whose product provides simple and affordable pleasures. Products that allow for small indulgences and make people feel good.

Here are some very recent statistics that I think you will find both interesting and promising:

In the last quarter, McDonald's sales were up 8% (comfort food) ... Movie ticket sales are up 17% ... Video games sales are up 12.5% ... MAC cosmetics/lipstick sales are up by double digits (make up allows women to feel prettier instantly).

We all know that the act of scrapbooking provides the scrapper with a real sense of accomplishment and inspiration. The completion of a scrapbook page makes a scrapper "FLAT feel good." Our industry's products remain very affordable, relative to housing, cars, and furniture. Paper, our biggest product category, can still be purchased with "loose change." Worthwhile activities such as scrapbooking will be the first to feel the "winds of increased consumer spending." KEEP THE FAITH and let me hear an AMEN brother!!

Sincerely, Jack Behlmer, President, Creative Imaginations

"The [Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act] is clear as mud," a major vendor told CLN. Now the mud may be spreading.

The Federal Trade Commission wants to force people writing a product review or endorsement on a blog or other publication to disclose if they have any financial ties to the company, including if they received the product in question for free.

The purpose of the new regulation is to protect innocent consumers from paid shills who have ulterior motives for endorsing a product. Protecting consumers from unscrupulous marketers is a worthy goal, but like CPSIA, the proposed regulation is vague, and therefore raises various questions:

1. A knitter uses a free pattern, possibly from a yarn vendor's website, and proudly posts a photo of the resulting project on her blog. Is she violating the regulation?

2. A scrapbooker uses a myriad of supplies, some of which she may have received for free, and submits the layout to a magazine. The layout is published. Is the publisher liable?

The examples could be numerous, involving designers, publishers, teachers, and others in every category. "The key here is what the FTC considers to be an endorsement," wrote Nancy Nally in Scrapbook Update. "Is a well-known scrapbooker using a product in a layout on their blog, or on an example in a class they are teaching, an 'endorsement' of that product? If the FTC thinks it is, the implications for the scrapbook industry (and the people who work in it) are a major headache."

1. David Green certainly puts his money where his mouth is. Gives raises to employees when most employees are just thankful to have any job at all; closes stores on Sundays; donates millions to religious causes, especially schools; buys ads in major newspapers at Christmas and Easter with simple religious messages; and sends millions of Bibles to Third World countries.

2. A few years ago a reporter for one of the national news magazines called and asked me to tell him interesting things about David Green. "Why?" I asked. He answered, grumpily, "Because I think we should do a story about him, but I can't convince my editor."

"Why not?"

"There's no Hobby Lobby in New York City, and he acts like, so how important could Hobby Lobby be?"

So I told the reporter what I knew that I thought might interest the editor, but I never saw an article. Maybe now, finally, the New York editor will pay attention.

3. I wrote recently about how we need to get our hard-core scrappers, beaders, knitters, etc., to use up their stash (so they will need to buy more). Here's an idea from Mike Dolan, who runs Scrapbook 911, a scrapbook store in San Antonio, with his wife Shelly. "A new idea that has been successful is a class where you use your old stuff. One of our instructors has a class called "FAB 4," in which you make 4 layouts in 4 hours for $4. Sales are actually very good during this class and customers appreciate being able to use something they already have."

AWARD. FloraCraft's CEO Jim Scatena was named Business Leader of the Year by the Ludington (MI) Daily News. Visit www.ludingtondailynews.com/mobilenews.php?story_id=44047.

MICHAELS. Had to modify its fourth-quarter results due to a settlement with the Internal Revenue Service. The issue is stock options granted to execs in the 1990s, before the current Michaels administration was in place. Michaels had reported net income of $4 million in the period ended Jan. 31. At the time, Michaels expected a $6 million income tax benefit and modified it to a $3 million provision for income taxes, reflecting a $9 million swing. That resulted in a $5 million net loss in the quarter.

TNNA. Members can now buy health insurance through the association. Visit www.associationpros.com/assoc/tnna. ... The Needlepoint Group posted its April edition on its website, www.worldofneedlepoint.com. The featured retailer is Voila! C'est Fini! of Boca Raton, FL. ... TNNA is now offering The Stitch N’ Pitch Merchandise Collection of apparel and accessories. Visit www.cafepress.com/StitchNPitch. Interested in placing a large order? Email info@StitchNPitch.com.

TRENDS. Watch what Michelle Obama wears. When she stepped off Air Force One in England at the beginning of the recent European trip, she was wearing an outfit from Land's End. Within hours, the company said, the outfit was sold out.

PEOPLE. A.C. Moore's Exec VP/CFO Michael Zawoysky, resigned effective Apr. 24 to pursue a career opportunity in the private equity sector. ... AccuQuilt hired Jen Bartelt as National Sales Manager. She had been a national account sales exec with TEK Industries, AccuQuilt’s parent company.

JEWELRY. Mag Tags are a clever idea for interchangeable jewelry for tween-age girls. Visit http://mag-tagz.com/starterpacks.aspx.

RESEARCH. CHA will host a conference call for CHA members Apr. 30 to review the 2008 CHA Attitude & Usage Research Data. To register, email Allison Adoff at aadoff@craftandhobby.org or call 201-835-1218.

SHOWS. The annual Bead&Button show, traditionally the largest consumer bead show in the U.S., will be in Milwaukee, June 5-7, with numerous classes earlier in the week. visit www.beadandbuttonshow.com or call 800-554-0197.

QUOTATION. "We have probably seen in the 30% realm of increases. You also see a lot of the younger crowd, especially your families with two or three kids, come in and buy cloth diaper fabric to make their own cloth diapers. Usually whenever you think of sewing, you think of the older generation because their parents would teach them, but definitely I think it's reaching to the younger generation." – Clay Williams, Manager the Hancock store in Springfield, MO (tv station KOAR)

ROLODEX. Craft Marketing Connections has launched a new website. Visit www.craftmarketingconnections.com to learn about the firm's research, product development, marketing/sales, public relations/education, and design services.

GOTTA LOVE THE ELDERLY. A 98 year-old woman was pulled from the rubble after the earthquake in Italy. When asked what she did to pass the time during her 30-hour ordeal and she said, "I crochet."

ENTREPRENEURS. The (MN) Pioneer Press profiled Pamela Turner, inventor of Spiral Eye Side Threading Needles, which won an Innovation award at the CHA Winter Show. It's an innovative needle that makes threading a needle easier – and an inspirational story of persistence and determination for every inventor. Visit www.spiraleyeneedles.com.

RECALLS. The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced that Mega Brands America, formerly Rose Art Industries, has agreed to pay $1.1 million to settle allegations that the company failed to provide the government with timely information about dangers to children with Magnetix magnetic building sets, as required under federal law. In December of 2005, Rose Art filed an initial report with CPSC that a 22-month-old child had died, due to ingesting multiple magnets that fell out of pieces from a Magnetix set.

CRIME. Recently a robber with a gun walked into a Hobby Lobby in Florence, SC, tied up two employees in the office, and escaped with an undisclosed amount of money. Because he was loose, a nearby high school was temporarily put on lock-down.

BEST WISHES. To Clotilde, a major influence in the sewing and notions for 30+ years, who is retiring. Beth Wheeler is collecting cards and emails from fans and colleagues. Email greetings with be assembled in an album and the cards will be delivered personally to Clotilde by her long-time assistant, LeeAnn Dothan. Send cards to Clotilde, c/o Beth Wheeler, 6701 Mandarin Cove, Fort Wayne, IN 46845; email greetings may be sent to muttonhead@mchsi.com.

STOCKS. A.C. Moore: $2.54, up $0.42 ... Hancock: $0.90, up $0.44 ... Jo-Ann: $17.59, up $0.94 ... Wal-Mart: $50.20, down $3.60 ... Dow Jones: 8,131.33, up 1.4%. (Note: All changes in price are since 4/3 and are exclusive of dividends.)

REAL ESTATE. The Wall Street Journal reported many commercial real estate owners are slashing rents to fill space left by out-of-business retailers, and cited Hobby Lobby moving into a former Goody's store in Jonesboro, AR. This is a nation-wide trend, offering opportunities for many retailers. (Note: One of the keys to HL's continued success has been the company's ability to obtain low rents.)

ECONOMY. Shoplifting rose 5%-15% in 2008, the National Retail Federation reported. NRF's Joseph LaRocca told the Atlanta Constitution the increase may be due to consumers looking for deals, which gives criminals a market to sell their stolen goods. ... Consumers downloaded coupons valued at $57 million in March from Coupons.com, a 192% increase over the same period last year. ... Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports hit its lowest level in seven years in February, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

CONTESTS. Interweave announced the final casting call for U.S. and Canadian beaders and jewelry designers to enter the second annual Bead Star challenge competition with $10,000+ in prizes and a Grand Prize, an all-expense paid trip for two to Santa Fe for Bead Expo 2010, $1,000 in beading supplies, and the cover of the new magazine, Bead Star (www.BeadStar.com). The deadline is May 1. Winning entries will be published in the second annual issue of Bead Star, the first bead magazine comprised entirely of prize-winning designs selected by beaders worldwide, available on newsstands Dec. 8. There is a YouTube slide show of the 2008 winners at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAfXtM8ej0g.

BOOKS. C&T Publishing is now offering out-of-print books as downloadable ebooks. So far, sales have been very positive. Many have been out of print for years and sell on eBay. Visit www.ctpubblog.com/category/ebooks-downloads.

AWARD. The Crochet Liberation Front, an online community committed to promoting crochet, awarded Lion Brand a Flamie for Most Crochet Friendly Yarn Company.

SEMINARS. F+W Publications is sponsoring the Great American Retail Conference in Arlington, TX on June 3, the day before the Great American Scrapbook Convention. The one-day seminar will be presented by Beth Mauro, former editor of Scrapbook Retailer and CNA, and author/retail consultant Tamara Lipori. Sessions will address trends and strategies for generating store traffic during a tough economy. For info, email Beth at beth.mauro@fwmedia.com. For info on the Convention, visit www.greatamericanscrapbook.com.

RADIO. Industry veterans Tiffany Windsor and Julianna Hudgins will host Inspired at Home, a new call-in talk radio show on www.blogtalkradio.com that premieres Apr. 26. They worked together on Aleene's Creative Living tv series which ran for 15 years. Check the website, too: www.inspiredathome.com. To have a product considered for a future segment, call 626-616-3113 or email tiffany@inspiredathome.com.

BOOKS. Martingale signed Marie Osmond to write a new book with a Spring 2010 release. The book's projects, designed and made by Marie, include quilts, bags, gifts, and other items. The title will be published under Martingale's That Patchwork Place imprint.

MARTHA. Highlighted Plaid's Mod Podge on The Martha Stewart Show before Easter when she demonstrated how to make decoupage Easter eggs using Mod Podge and thanked Plaid for providing each member of the audience with a bottle of the product. More segments with Mod Podge are planned for the near future.

To see the latest listings from the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

Note: The Creative Network is offering a $1,500 rebate to any company who hires a permanent or contract worker from The Creative Network during May, June, or July.

1. People who want to share their religious views with you almost never want you to share yours with them.

2. You should not confuse your career with your life.

3. Nobody cares if you can't dance well. Just get up and dance.

4. Never lick a steak knife.

5. The most destructive force in the universe is gossip.

6. You should never say anything to a woman that even remotely suggests that you think she's pregnant unless you can see an actual baby emerging from her at that moment.

7. The one thing that unites all human beings regardless of age, gender, religion, economic status, or ethnic background is that deep down inside we ALL believe we are above average drivers.

8. Your friends love you anyway.

9. Middle age is when broadness of mind and narrowness of waist change places.

10. Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. 

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