Date: November 23, 2009
Vol. XII, No. 22

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

COMMENTARY: BACK TO ROSEMONT 

You've probably heard that CHA is moving the Summer Show back to Rosemont, where it had been held for decades. A little history:

When HIA moved the winter show out of Chicago, some Midwestern companies thought the industry needed a Midwestern show in the summer and formed the Mid American Craft & Hobby Assn., later changed to the Assn. of Crafts & Creative Industries. The first show was held in Ohio in the late 70's. By the time I began to attend, the MACHA show had moved to the Apparel Mart in downtown Chicago. The Mart had a convention hall (too small to be called a convention center as we know them today) with a Holiday Inn on top.

Talk about convenient: after the show you rode an elevator to your room. The show grew like wildfire, as did summer shows in Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas, and Seaside, OR. so it moved to Rosemont in the early 80's.

It's also hard to imagine this now, but back then it was primarily a Christmas show – retailers ordered their Christmas inventory in July. That changed when imports became so dominant and had to be ordered much earlier in the year.

And what a sign that is of how the industry has grown: the entire industry and its trade show could fit in one building.

Mike's Blog. For magazine publishers and kit manufacturers, what elements on the cover or box affect sales? The answer may surprise you. To read it, click HERE.

Kizer & Bender. Their latest column was advice to retailers on handling irate shoppers. But manufacturers often receive calls from consumers, and one talks about how it's a slightly different process. Ultimately the question becomes, is the customer always right?

The N Files. How FaveCrafts.com has grown to a circulation of 300,000+ in less than a year, including tips on building traffic to your site.

Kate's Collage. Is your business ready for a pandemic? If it's not H1N1 then it will be something like it. Tips on preparing your business for the worst.

(Note: To read the columns, click on the column title in the left-hand column. If it's not the column you expected, click on the Reload or Refresh button of your browser.)

So the CHA Summer Show is returning to Rosemont. Is that better than Orlando? Do you care one way or another? To vote, click on Industry Polls in the right-hand column or click HERE.

Chicago may have lost its Olympic bid, but it won CLN's unscientific poll as the favorite city for a trade show – although presumably voters were thinking Chicago in the summer, not the winter. The Windy City received 27.8% of the vote, followed closely by Anaheim with 27.4% and Las Vegas with 25.0%. In single digits were Long Beach and Houston at 5.6%. Orlando was last with 2.8%. Another 2.8% have not attended shows in any of the cities.

The CHA Summer Show will be Tues., July 27 through Thurs., July 29, back at the Donald Stephens Convention Center in Rosemont, IL. A consumer show will immediately follow the trade show on Friday and Saturday. It's a one-year agreement with options beyond 2010.

The show had been held in Rosemont for 25+ years, originally as primarily a Christmas show, but as the number of independent retailers declined, so, too, did the attendance. As imports became more prevalent and Christmas products had to be ordered much earlier in the year, the nature of the show changed as well.

In an effort to revive the show and grow the industry, CHA moved it to Orlando and added a consumer show. Although officials said the Orlando show attracted about 5% more retailers than the 2008 Rosemont event, exhibitor surveys and conference calls with members indicated a strong preference for Rosemont.

Any questions about the shows should be directed to Anthony Licata. Call 201-835-1203 or email alicata@craftandhobby.org.

According to a survey of major retailers by BDO Seidman, an accounting/consulting firm, sales on Black Friday will grow 1.8%. Other conclusions:

1. Most retailers (96%) will increase promotions, discounts and special events.

2. The strongest category will be toys. The most heavily discounted will be electronics.

3. Regarding online strategies, 69% percent of the top 100 retailers plan to focus most heavily on email promotions.

Net sales for the third quarter ended Oct. 31 increased 6.0% to $509.1 million and same-store sales increased 4.3%. Traffic increased 4.9% but the average ticket declined 0.6%. Large-format store sales increased 8.7% and same-store sales rose 2.3%. Small-format store sales increased 3.0% to $228.5 million and same-store sales increased 6.7%. Internet sales through Joann.com increased 6.2% to $8.6 million.

Sewing same-store sales increased 8.1%. Non-sewing same-store sales increased only 0.1% due to growth in core craft merchandise categories offset by continued weakness in seasonal and custom framing categories.

Net sales for the first nine months of the fiscal year were $1.39 billion, up 4.5%, and same-store sales rose 2.5%.

The results were better than expected, so the company now expects fiscal third quarter earnings/diluted share to be $0.88 - $0.90, more than double the earnings a year ago. Based on the assumption that same-store sales will increase 2.3% - 2.7% for the entire fiscal year, the company increased its expected earnings/diluted share to $1.95 - $2.05 for the year (excluding any gains on debt purchases) from $1.35 - $1.50. The company will report earnings Dec. 2.

Wall Street was impressed: Zacks.com rated Jo-Ann a Strong Buy and Soleil/Stein Research recommended the stock. Wedbush upgraded Jo-Ann from Neutral to Outperform.

Sales for the third quarter ended Oct. 3 were $106.1 million, down 9.1% from a year ago. The decline was due to operating two fewer stores and a same-store sales drop of 7.7%.

The pre-tax loss for the quarter was $12.9 million, compared to a pre-tax loss of $4.4 million for the quarter last year. In the third quarter of 2008, the company recorded a valuation allowance against the net deferred tax asset which resulted in income tax expense of $3.1 million, or $0.15/share.

The net loss for the quarter was $12.9 million ($0.53/share), compared to a net loss of $7.5 million ($0.37/share) for the comparable period last year.

Sales for the first three quarters of the fiscal year were $319.2 million, down 13.6% due to operating fewer stores and by a decrease in comparable store sales of 11.7%.

Net loss for the nine months was $25.4 million ($1.16/share), compared to a net loss of $13.6 million ($0.67/share) for the same period last year. Prior year results include charges related to the non-cash fixed asset impairment of $0.07/share.

CEO Rick Lepley said, "We were highly promotional in the quarter which adversely affected our margins. However, we are encouraged with the customer count increase from the second quarter, suggesting that shoppers were pleased with our advertising message and promotions." The current store count is 134.

TRAFFIC. Store traffic on Black Friday will increase, according to a survey by the Int. Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs. The reason? Media publicity that many retailers will have lower inventories this season.

CROWDS. Wal-Mart has implemented a crowd-control plan this holiday season, and will keep most U.S. locations open overnight on Thanksgiving to ease the crowding that led to the trampling death of a store employee a year ago, the Boston Globe reported.

YARN. One of the predicted fashion trends and hot sellers for the season is a "snood," a hybrid of a scarf and a hood, the Wall Street Journal reported. (Comment: sounds like the perfect project for knitters who'd rather make a present than buy a readymade.)

LESS PLASTIC. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 24.9% of holiday shoppers will pay cash, a 9.1% increase. Plus, 42.5% plan to pay with debit or check cards, a 2.5% increase. Usage of credit cards  expected to fall 10.1%. Only 4% plan to pay with personal checks.

GIFT CARDS. NRF's survey also indicated shoppers will spend less on gift cards, $139.91, compared to $147.33. The average value/card will be lower, too, $39.80, compared to $40.54. Consistent with last year, 77.2% will buy at least one card this holiday season. ... Michaels will now carry Blackhawk Network's Gift Card Mall, featuring 100+ of branded gift cards, including iTunes, Cracker Barrel, Macy's, etc., TradingMarkets.com reported. Blackhawk Network is a third-party provider of prepaid gift-cards. "Our customers will welcome the convenience of having a wide variety of gift cards available, in addition to Michaels' gift cards, as they purchase holiday decor, stocking stuffers, last minute gifts, and creative gift card packaging," said Philo Pappas, Exec VP of Category Management.

TRENDS. The VP of the National Retail Federation, Ellen Davis, listed in her blog the top holiday trends. Click HERE.

E-COMMERCE. Holiday shoppers now expect free shipping when buying online, USA Today reported.

HIRING. Jo-Ann announced an 18.1% increase in seasonal hires, up to 2,779, over last year. "Obviously, we are very pleased to be able to offer employment to more people in these challenging economic times," COO Travis Smith told the Hudson (OH) Hub Times."This increase is a result of our recent sales trend and expectations for holiday traffic in our stores." ... Houston tv station KHOU reported Hobby Lobby was also hiring seasonal workers.

QUOTATION. "This is the year of $25 and under gifts." – Kathy Deane, President of the New York-based retail consultancy Tobe (Associated Press)

BLACK FRIDAY. Scrapbook Update has a specific list of sales at Craft Warehouse, Jo-Ann, and Michaels. Click  HERE.

CHA. The Board of Directors re-elected Mike McCooey, President/CEO of Plaid, and retailer Larry Olliges, President of Dees’ Crafts, as Chair and Vice Chair, respectively. Mark Peters, Exec VP/Chief Operating Officer of iLoveToCreate/Duncan Ent., was elected Secretary.

TNNA. The new Board Officers are Dave Stott, Norden Crafts, President; Joel Woodcock, Lantern Moon, VP/Yarn Group Chair; and Matt Bryant, Prism Arts, Secretary/Treasurer. Still on the board are Jim Collingham, Colonial Needle; Sharon Garmize, Sharon G; Kirstin Muench, Muench Yarns; Betsy Perry, Classic Elite Yarns; Cathy Rapoza, Alice Peterson; and Cathe Ray, Needle in a Haystack, Counted Thread/Embroidery Chair.

1. The CHA Board appointed David Murray, VP of Activa to fill the board vacancy created by the resignation of Sara Naumann of Hot Off the Press.

2. The winter show was honored as one of Trade Show Executive magazine's "Gold" 100 trade shows. The 100 are chosen on the merits of technological innovation, green initiatives, global participation, brand leadership, and net square feet of exhibition space.

3. A new policy for trade show badges: Non-exhibiting supplier members (that's manufacturer/importers, distributors, consumer and trade publishers, and service providers) can have four free badges. Additional badges will be $100 each. Exhibitors can have four free badges for every 100 sq. ft. of exhibit space. Non-member attendees continue to pay the full price of $150. Questions? The change is made to secure more accurate reporting of attending buyers and exhibitor staff, and to close loopholes that granted free access to many non-qualified show attendees. Email registration@craftandhobby.org.

4. A member who encourages a colleague to join CHA will receive a $50 discount on his/her 2011 membership dues. For each new 2010 member (up to a maximum of three companies) referred by another CHA member, a $50 credit will be applied to the 2011 membership dues of the referring CHA member company (up to maximum amount of $150). Questions? Email memberbenefits@craftandhobby.org.

5. As of Nov. 18, the Anaheim Super (consumer) Show has 55 exhibitors. To see the list, click HERE.

6. CHA reports "an unauthorized company offering lower hotel rates than our official housing company. If you have been contacted by any company other than Par Avion Meetings & Conventions, do not book your hotel rooms through them. If you do, you will find that their booking requirements are more restrictive. In past incidents, some exhibitors found that their credit card was charged though no hotel reservation was made for them."

In the third quart Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia lost $12.1 million ($0.22/share) compared with a loss of $3.7 million ($0.07) a year ago. Analysts expected a loss of $0.09/share. Revenue fell 25%, declining in all segments: 22% in publishing; 23% in TV; 39% in merchandise, thanks to the end of the contract with Sears/Kmart; and 8.9% in Internet revenue.

However, President/CEO of Merchandising Robin Marino said, "Retail sales of Martha Stewart products were solid in the quarter, with a strong performance by the Martha Stewart Collection at Macy's and Martha Stewart Crafts at Michaels.

Three years ago the stock sold for $22. Now it's at $4.93.

Over Columbus Day weekend 14 Manhattan and Brooklyn yarn shops sponsored a NYC Yarn Crawl, a self-guided tour to the stores that offered demos, book signings, raffles, and a scavenger hunt. The result: 30,000+ hits on the Crawl website in the prior month and increased traffic – and sales – compared to the same weekend last year in all of the stores. Three of the stores reported their sales had doubled.

"We were thrilled with the turn-out," said Pearl Chin, owner of Knitty City. "The store was packed all weekend, sales were very strong, and, best of all, we made lots of new friends."

For info on next year's Crawl, email phyllis@nycyarncrawl.com.

Barbara Hartnett is Exec Director of Friendship House of Christian Service in the poorest, toughest part of Peoria, IL. It's a social agency supported by United Way, state and federal grants, various Protestant churches, and donations.

Friendship House offers a variety of services, including a food pantry, soup kitchen, thrift store, layettes and baby needs, senior programs, the local chapter of the Dress for Success program, and emergency services. (Recently there were 40 people in their bathrobes in the lobby; their apartment building had burned down.) There are after-school and summer school programs for 200 kids.

Friendship House has supporters, but the need is much greater than Friendship House's resources. Attendance at the soup kitchen, for example, has gone from 50 to 350 in recent years, but donations have not increased accordingly. Food pantry numbers are up 250%. For every one person who can be helped with rent or utilities, nine are turned away for lack of resources.

It's a constant struggle for money.

In the midst of all this, Barbara realized there was a sizable, growing Hispanic population that was not using Friendship House's services. Although they are here legally and certainly poor enough to qualify, most of the Hispanics were leery of institutions they don't know and too proud and ashamed to ask for food or rent money.

Barbara also knew many Hispanic women love crochet, so she came to the CHA summer show a couple of years ago and told the good folks at yarn companies that she wanted to start a Warm Up America! chapter at Friendship House, but couldn't afford the yarn to get started.

Manufacturers sent huge boxes of yarn and Barbara got the word out. Today about a dozen poor Hispanic women come to Friendship House every Tuesday morning with their kids, and they make blankets and afghans for homeless shelters, the Red Cross, and for people poorer than they are. They have made and donated more than 500 afghans.

And so the word spread among the Hispanic community: this Friendship House was ok.

Today Friendship House offers basic translation services in a variety of settings from medical offices to principal's offices; Hispanic Boy and Girl Scout troops; English language classes; GED classes in English and Spanish; health fairs; free help with income tax preparation; talks on how to open a bank account or buy a house; how to understand the local school system; a citizenship class (ever try to explain the electoral college to people who don't understand English very well?); and the area's only Cinco de Mayo festival.

Friendship House is now the center for Hispanic outreach in Peoria. And the word has gone beyond Peoria. The first trip out of the state capitol that Illinois' new governor, Pat Quinn, took was to Friendship House to highlight its program in which volunteers help poor people – in English and Spanish – with their income taxes; paying taxes is a critical step towards citizenship.

The Mexican Consulate in Chicago heard about Friendship House, too. Many Hispanics entered the U.S. legally when passports were not required. But the Patriot Act now mandates even legal Hispanics who return home to visit relatives must have a passport or they can't re-enter the country. So the Consulate traveled 150 miles to Peoria and set up shop at Friendship House last summer. The Consulate issued more than 1,100 passports and returned a few months later to issue another 400. But there's more.

So Barbara sees these women making afghans and tries to think of a way they could make some money. Many of their men work seasonally, following the crops. The average income for a family of four is under $9,000 – half the federal poverty rate. They are in very traditional marriages – mom stays home with the kids. Most of these women don't speak very much English or drive a car. Hmmm.

Barbara starts making jewelry and learns that religious jewelry is very popular. Hmmm.

The Bible verse that best sums up the mission of Friendship House is Matthew 25: 35-40. "For I was hungry and you gave me to eat. I was thirsty and you gave me to drink… I was naked and you clothed me…. I say unto you whenever you do these things to one of these, the least of my brethren, you do unto me." Hmmm.

So Barbara returns to the CHA summer show and meets with the good folks at Halcraft. Together they design five charms representing the Matthew 25 verse and Halcraft sourced the charms – a piece of bread, a shirt, a cup, etc. Barbara gets a small grant from the American Baptist Women designed to help Hispanic women gain some financial independence.

Barbara taught some of the women how to make Matthew 25 charm bracelets and they are paid for each bracelet. They had been selling them at churches, but as Barbara teaches more women, Friendship House is now selling them online, thus creating more jobs.

Kathie Stull of KS Inc. Productions, producer of the Beads, Baubles & Jewels series for PBS, was so enthusiastic about the program that she had Barbara appear on a segment in the new series which will be broadcast on various PBS stations later this year.

Barbara said when the first woman got a check for $390 for her bracelets, "She cried, I cried, everyone cried."

And it all started with a simple donation of yarn.

(Note: There are six versions of the bracelet – Brown Agate, Carnelian, Dalmation Jasper, Fresh Water Pearls, Green Jade, Lapis, and Rose Quartz. Each has the Matthew 25 charms and costs $25. Each bracelet is on a card with the Matthew 25 verse and is signed by the woman who made it. To see them, visit www.peoriafriendshiphouse.org/buybracelets.htm.)

My blog recounted various trade show disasters, and Georgann Bender reminded me of these: "You forgot the electronics vendor at the Ben Franklin show who was tossed out for showing porn on the TV's in his booth. And the exhibitor who spent his days watching retailers try to pick up the quarters he had Crazy Glued to the carpet." To read that blog entry, click HERE.

PROMOS. There's still time to order Kizer and Bender's 4th Quarter Retail Sales-Building Events & Promotions – great ways to boost holiday traffic and sales. Order by Nov. 30. Visit www.kizerandbender.blogspot.com.

WAL-MART. Excluding fuel sales, same-store sales declined 0.4% in the third quarter, although traffic increased. Price deflation in groceries and electronics were the culprits. But profits rose 3.2%, beating the company's and Wall Street's expectations. The company predicted fourth-quarter sales would be flat.

CRIME. A St. Louis area woman was arrested last month for stealing $300 worth of items from a Hancock store, Suburban Journals reported. She is 77 years old.

SCAMS. St. Louis TV station KMOV reported crooks have stolen debit card information from some Hancock customers and then made fake cards. As CLN reported previously, similar cases have been reported in California and Wisconsin.

IMPORTS. The Washington lobbying firm Bracewell and Giuliani was hired by Michaels to work on "tariff-relief legislation," The Hill reported. Edward Krenik, a former associate administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, and Milam Mabry, once a legislative assistant to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), are lobbying for Michaels.

PEOPLE. Former Jo-Ann and Michaels marketing exec Bill Dandy was named to a similar position by Borders.

CLOSING. Scrappin Good Times in San Dimas, CA is closing its doors. The owner, Trish, told Examiner.com that the store was a victim of the economy.

TV. Hancock was featured on a recent episode of The Balancing Act on the Lifetime network as an expert source on the latest trends in crafts and home dec.

STOCKS. A.C. Moore: $3.36, down $1.42 ... Hancock: $1.32, up $0.03 ... Jo-Ann: $32.92, up $6.30 ... Wal-Mart: $54.28, up $4.60 ... Dow Jones: 10,318.16, up 6.2%. (Note: All changes in price are since 10/30 and are exclusive of dividends.)

SHOWS. Scrapbook Expo moved up the dates of its show in Southern California (Costa Mesa) to Jan. 15-17. It had originally been scheduled after the CHA consumer show.

SHOWS. The education proposal form for the 2010 TNNA Winter show is available at www.e-offinger.net/tnna/education/proposal_form.cfm.

SHOWS. There will be one Knit & Crochet show in 2010 – July 9-10 in Manchester, NH. Classes will be July 8-10. The Crochet Guild of America and The Knitting Guild Assn. will hold their annual conferences in conjunction with the show in separate tracks of activities. Exhibit and attendee details will be available at www.KnitandCrochetShow.com. Email KnitandCrochetShow@offinger.com or 740-452-4541 with questions.

SHOWS. The revived Canadian Craft & Hobby Assn. is exploring hosting a trade event. The last CCHA trade show was in 2006. Have any ideas about such a show or are willing to join the event committee? Email Paula Jones at paula.jones@cchacanada.org or call 519-940-5969.

CONFERENCE. Registration is now open for Yarn Market News' Smart Business Conference in Seattle Mar. 14-16. Register now and save $100. (Comment: the schedule of seminars and activities looks excellent.) Visit www.yarnmarketnews.com.

YARN. Lion Brand is sponsoring the second annual Vanna's Choice yarn contest (www.vannaschoice.com) at Michaels stores through Feb. 1. The grand prize winner will receive $1,000 and an all-expense paid trip to Los Angeles to meet Vanna White. The categories are afghans & throws, baby & kids, hats & scarves, and gifts & crafts. Each category offers eight prizes ranging from a $100 Michael's gift card to a $1,000 cash award. For rules and an entry form, visit www.VannasChoice.com.

SETTLEMENT. Lawrence and Jeffrey Rosen, former owners of RoseArt Industries, announced the settlement of the lawsuits between them and Mega Brands (MB) stemming from MB's acquisition of RoseArt. The settlement allows the Rosens to recover approximately $20 million in taxes which they prepaid in expectation of Mega Brands’ ability to satisfy a $50 million earnout payment obligation built in to the original Rose Art purchase agreement. In return, Mega Brands’ $200 million counterclaim against the Rosens will be dismissed.

KNITTING. The Learn to Knit program, sponsored by Scholastic magazine, Warm Up America! and the Craft Yarn Council is off to an amazing start: Scholastic sent a poster to 10,000 home ec teachers about knitting and offered to send kits to their students. In one week the program received orders for 10,000 kits.

PHOTOS Consumers continue to print fewer photos. According to the latest study by the Photo Marketing Assn., the volume of prints made from digital still camera images decreased 2% in September. Online ordering fell 5% and printing volumes at retail minilabs and kiosks fell 2% and grew 6%. Home printing fell by 4%.

RECALL. MacPherson's recalled about 10,000 Young Artist Easels because of high levels of lead in the chalkboard surface.

TAXES. President Obama signed a bill with a provision that allows all companies to "carry back" current losses to offset taxes paid in profitable years. It allows manufacturers to "carry back" losses in 2008 or 2009 for a period of five years instead of only two.

PUBLICITY. Walnut Hollow's Basswood Country Rounds are featured in the Nov. 16 issue of People. New York Designer David Stark used them as plate chargers for his Fall-themed Table Top Setting. There's a photo and a sidebar with Walnut Hollow's web address.

AWARD. C&T Publishing was named one of 10 publishers in the 2009 "Best Book Publishing Companies to Work For" created by Book Business magazine. Book Business stated, "C&T was selected for a number of criteria including ergonomic workspaces, paid time off for professional-development classes, county-certified 'green' business; planning to convert to solar power in 2010.... Family and pets are 'welcome to visit,' and pets who need temporary, full-time care can spend the day in the office with the employee." Profiles of the winners' benefits package and corporate policies are published at www.BookBusinessMag.com.

SIGN OF THE TIMES. C&T Publishing has launched of the first Quick & Easy Quilt Block Tool iPhone/iPod Touch application for quilters.

CREDIT. CIT Group's recent bankruptcy filing adds to the worries of some vendors and retailers. The company provides capital for approximately 2,000 vendors that supply merchandise to 300,000+ stores. However, Chair/CEO Jeffrey Peek said the reorganization plan "will allow CIT to continue to provide funding to our small business and middle market customers...." CIT expects to emerge from bankruptcy by the end of the year, Bloomberg News reported.

WEB. Plaid's websites, www.PlaidOnline.com and www.PlaidKidsCrafts.com, now include an "Ornament Extravaganza" – dozens of ornaments submitted by and for craftsers using Plaid products – and PlaidOnline.com is offering a complementary planner for a make-an-ornament craft party with shopping lists, invitations, etc. ... Last Saturday Plaid sponsored a make-it/take-it at Michaels stores teaching customers to make Christmas ornaments with Gallery Glass.

EMBROIDERY. The new Designer Embroidery collection from Westminster Fibers includes designs by Donna Dewberry, Joel Dewberry, Anna Maria Horner, Tina Givens, and Kaffe Fassett. Click HERE.

To see the latest listings by the only personnel recruitment firm specializing in our industry, click on Jobs in the left-hand column or click HERE.

Some Thanksgiving dates and statistics, courtesy of various government agencies:

1863. President Lincoln proclaimed the last Thursday of November a national day of thanksgiving. Later, President Franklin Roosevelt said it should be celebrated on the fourth Thursday – never on the occasional fifth Thursday – to encourage earlier holiday shopping.

271 million. The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the U.S. in 2008.

709 million pounds. The forecast for U.S. cranberry production in 2009.

1.8 billion pounds. The total weight of sweet potatoes grown in the U.S.

1.1 billion pounds. Total production of pumpkins produced in 2008.

2.5 billion bushels. The total volume of wheat – the essential ingredient of bread, rolls, and pie crust – produced in 2008.

794,777 tons. The 2008 contracted production of snap (green) beans.

$9.2 million. The value of U.S. imports of live turkeys from January through July of 2009

13.8 pounds. The quantity of turkey consumed by the typical American in 2007.

$3.8 billion. Forecast 2009 receipts to farmers from turkey sales.

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